Bills vs Commanders Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | +200 |
Bills vs. Commanders odds have Buffalo laying 5.5 points on the road in NFL Week 3.
Buffalo bounced back in Week 2 with a dominant win over the Raiders, while the Commanders are undefeated with second-year quarterback Sam Howell proving to be quite competent. One of his player props will be a large subject of my Bills vs. Commanders game preview.
Let's preview the game and make our Bills vs. Commanders pick.
Bills vs. Commanders
Matchup Analysis
Just two games into his first season as a full-time NFL starter, quarterback Sam Howell has already shown flashes of potential.
Last week, he fell a yard shy of his first career 300-yard passing game against a typically strong Denver defense. Howell put up plenty of big numbers in college as well, throwing for 10,283 yards in his three years as the starter at North Carolina.
Howell ranks 16th in EPA+CPOE composite score, tied with Jalen Hurts. He has been above league average in both EPA per play and CPOE, which isn’t typical of first-year starters.
The addition of Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator has seemed to help Howell’s progression. Rather than asking him to air it out every play, Washington is dialing up plenty of screens to help its young quarterback on early downs, resulting in Howell’s ADOT of 6.8, which is among the lowest in the league.
The Commanders have thrown the ball 61.07% of the time this season, which is the 11th-highest rate in the league.
Bet Buffalo vs. Washington at FanDuel
With a rabid pass rush in the first half of the 2022 season, the Bills defense developed a well-earned reputation. However, after Von Miller went down in Week 12 with a torn ACL, the defense was never the same. But the betting markets continued to credit the Bills with having a great defense.
That has carried over to the 2023 season. Buffalo ranks 11th in the league in pressure rate. This comes almost exclusively from Week 1.
According to PFF, 84% of Buffalo’s pressures came from its Week 1 matchup against the Jets. Last weekend against the Raiders, the Bills had only five pressures, with two QB hits and no sacks.
Despite an easy schedule to start the season, Buffalo’s defense ranks 15th in dropback success rate, 24th in PFF pass rushing grade and 15th in PFF coverage grade. Given what we've seen thus far, this is not a particularly scary defense.
In Week 2, we saw just how dominant the Bills offense can be when they hit on all cylinders. They posted 0.316 EPA per play and a 59.2% success rate — the highest marks in the league last week.
As 6.5-point underdogs, the Commanders will likely have to throw the ball more than they typically do against a Bills offense that can put points on the board.
As of this writing, it appears Tropical Storm Ophelia’s impact on the game will be limited. Much of the storm is expected to be out of the area by kickoff, with lighter winds (around 10 mph) than had been anticipated earlier in the week.
Rain typically does not affect scoring heavily, but strong winds do. If the winds stay low, as forecasted, Howell should be able to throw the ball just fine.
Bills vs. Commanders
Betting Picks & Predictions
Throwing for 221 yards is not a high bar to clear for a competent NFL quarterback.
Howell put up 202 yards against the Cardinals in Week 1 and then threw for 299 yards against the Broncos in Week 2.
I like Howell to go over his yardage total, especially if the winds stay out of the area.
Vegas sure expects that to be the case since Howell's total rose by three yards on Friday. I would still take this up to 228.5 yards.
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