The first Monday Night Football matchup of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we are locked and loaded with a full slate of player prop picks for the AFC East showdown between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets.
Let's take a look at our top three Bills vs. Jets player props on Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen and Dawson Knox to close Week 1.
Bills vs. Jets Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Bills vs. Jets
Aaron Rodgers
Under 234.5 Passing Yards (-113)
NFL fans across the globe spent a good portion of last season poking fun at Russell Wilson and the total disaster that the Broncos turned out to be in Wilson’s first campaign with the team. However, former head coach Nathaniel Hackett was also an enormous part of that dumpster fire, and now, Hackett has landed a role as commander-in-chief of this new-look Jets offense.
Personally, I’m in on the New York hype. I think the Jets are going to be a dangerous team in the near future. However, I also expect some bumps in the road along the way. Aaron Rodgers looked like a shell of himself last season, and the public’s preseason excitement for an offense led by Hackett in a new position feels like deja vu.
In his final campaign with Green Bay, Rodgers threw for 234 yards or less in 12 of 17 contests, and he cleared the 260-yard passing mark just one time. All history aside, I like this Jets offense on paper. But they seem to have the makings of a team that’s more likely to catch fire down the home stretch, as opposed to barrel out of the gates red hot.
The Jets offensive line is ranked 23rd in the NFL by Pro Football Focus. At the very least, there’s a good chance that it takes New York a quarter or two to find its footing offensively. Back Rodgers to stay under his passing yards number on Monday night.
Bills vs. Jets
Josh Allen
Under 0.5 Interception (+104)
The public perception of the Bills seems to be that they are perennial Super Bowl contenders, based on the fact that this is now the second season in a row that Buffalo has opened inside of 10-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Likewise, I’m a strong believer in the notion that this team has the ability to make a title run. However, the reality is that Buffalo has won only four playoff games since handing the keys to Allen back in 2018.
The problem with the Bills is they always find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Buffalo’s offense ranked 2nd in the entire league in giveaways last season, and not in a good way either, as the Colts were the only team that had more turnovers than the Bills.
Allen threw an interception in nine of 17 regular-season games, despite throwing a total of 14 picks on the year, which is why the oddsmakers are offering plus money on this prop. But I have to imagine that Sean McDermott and this Bills offense have made limiting turnovers a top priority all offseason.
This Buffalo team is better than that. I’m going to back Allen to avoid throwing an interception out of the gate in Week 1.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interception (+104)
Bills vs. Jets
Dawson Knox
Anytime Touchdown (+350)
The fantasy corner of the football world seems to be very intrigued with Bills first-round tight end Dalton Kincaid, who’s listed as the second tight end on the depth chart behind Dawson Knox, with both players being listed around the +350 mark to score a touchdown on Monday night.
The sky is the limit for Kincaid entering this high-powered Bills offense that loves to throw the ball as much as any team in the league. However, let’s not ignore the strong chemistry in the red zone that Josh Allen established with Knox down the stretch last season.
Allen and Knox linked up for a touchdown in four straight games to close out the regular season and then managed to keep that streak alive on Wild Card Weekend with another touchdown connection against the Dolphins. It’s a bit of a dice roll, but I’ll back Knox to catch a touchdown in Week 1.
