Chiefs vs Bills Odds, Prediction
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +110 |
The latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds for NFL Week 14 have Kansas City as a 2-point favorite at most sportsbooks with an over/under of 49 for this clash at Arrowhead Stadium. My NFL pick for this rivalry game, however, is the underdog's moneyline.
The Bills and Chiefs began the season as the two betting favorites to win the AFC. Neither has met preseason expectations through the first 12 games. Kansas City sits at 8-4 with major questions about its lack of offensive explosiveness and consistency. The Chiefs are still two games up in their division and will likely will cruise to an AFC West title, but the potential of Patrick Mahomes playing his first AFC road playoff game is very real.
Buffalo has run poorly with turnover luck, injuries and close-game variance that a team rated in the top six by the betting market could miss the playoffs entirely. The Bills lost in overtime in Philadelphia and now face a gauntlet schedule for most of the final five games.
The Bills are healthier, well rested and executing at a higher level offensively right now. This is a wonderful spot for Buffalo to pick off Kansas City and keep its playoff hopes alive — read more below for my Chiefs vs. Bills prediction.
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Chiefs vs Bills Prediction, Pick
Chiefs vs. Bills
Matchup Analysis
Kansas City's Friday injury report caused the line to move even further toward Buffalo.
The Chiefs won't have Isiah Pacheco, who has been key in both the run and underneath passing game for Mahomes. Left tackle Donovan Smith has been ruled out, along with linebacker Drue Tranquill and safety Bryan Cook. Nick Bolton will return in the middle of Kansas City's defense, but Pacheco and Smith are significant losses.
The Bills' defense went through a really bad period earlier in the season after losing three key defenders for the season, but the current injury report and trend line is considerably more encouraging. Buffalo is unlikely to have a single player (not counting IR) miss this game.
Von Miller is available to play, according to Sean McDermott, Kaiir Elam is listed as questionable but practiced all week and Dawson Knox adds another red-zone threat alongside Dalton Kincaid.
The Bills defense was a top-10 unit in EPA per play from Weeks 1-5; from Weeks 6-10, the Bills were last. Since Week 11, Buffalo is sixth again in EPA per play.
Defenses change a lot over the course of the season due to injuries, role changes and scheme. Right now, Buffalo is trending up while the Chiefs defense looked vulnerable against Jordan Love.
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Perhaps the most alarming performance of the Chiefs' recent stretch was their second-half shutout in a losing effort to the Eagles at home.
Given what we've seen from the Philadelphia defense against Washington, Dallas, Buffalo and San Francisco in the last month, it puts that excellent defensive outing in perspective. The Chiefs had some key drops in big moments, but the same wide receivers who stepped up in the playoff run have not generated the same production this season.
Since Week 10, the Chiefs offense is 19th in dropback success rate and 14th in EPA per play. They haven't played a group of elite defenses in the stretch either.
Chiefs vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
The market quickly moved off of three, but I’m not sure the Chiefs have any real advantages in this matchup.
Yes, the Chiefs are better defensively in the secondary, but Allen has been playing at an MVP level over the last month. Buffalo put up 500-plus yards on Philadelphia two weeks ago, and Allen’s scrambling on late downs was massive for extending drives.
The Bills are a top-five offense in both rushing and passing EPA per play. They couldn’t run against Philly, but it’s considerably easier to run on the Kansas City front. Most people have had the same takes about the Chiefs offense all year. It goes something like this: “Yeah, the Chiefs don’t look quite right, but they have Patrick Mahomes, and it’s only [insert month here].”
The reality? It’s December, and the Chiefs have one reliable wide receiver and Kelce.
We give Mahomes the benefit of the doubt because he’s in his prime. That’s not the case for Kelce. He doesn’t look nearly as explosive, his yards per reception are down and either he’s starting to show his age or he’s not fully healthy. Combine that with the other injuries and I'd bet Buffalo at any underdog price on Sunday.
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