Bills vs Bengals Odds, Prediction: Bet on a Sunday Night Football Shootout?
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Bills vs. Bengals odds have Cincinnati as 1.5-point favorites for Sunday Night Football at Paycor Stadium. The game total over/under has been steady, sitting at 50.5 across most books.
The Bills are out for revenge after getting upset by Cincinnati in last year's AFC Divisional Round; the Bengals want to make another statement and avoid falling to .500 with a very difficult remaining schedule. The Bengals sit in last place in the AFC North after a slow start out of the gates, but they are tied in the loss column with the Steelers and Browns.
This is the third meeting between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. Burrow and the Bengals triumphed in last year's playoffs, and the second encounter was unfortunately canceled after the Damar Hamlin injury.
There are massive implications on multiple fronts, to say the least, and I cover it all below and cap it with my Bills vs. Bengals prediction and pick for Sunday Night Football.
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Bills vs. Bengals
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bills and Bengals match up statistically:
Bills vs. Bengals DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 3 | 17 | |
| Pass DVOA | 2 | 11 | |
| Rush DVOA | 10 | 25 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 16 | 14 |  |
| Pass DVOA | 20 | 13 | |
| Rush DVOA | 18 | 17 | |
Last year, these teams featured the most complete rosters in the NFL. One year later, the Bills and Bengals still have two of the league's top offenses led by Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.
The latter finally appeared all the way back to full health in San Francisco last week. In that victory against the 49ers, Burrow finished a sparkling 28-of-32 for 283 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Not only did Burrow have to deal with a calf injury that clearly hampered his entire game through the first six games, he also missed time leading up to the start of the season, just like the prior two years when he started slow.
Now that he has found his rhythm and timing along with a clean bill of health, the rest of the AFC is now on notice. There's a reason Joe Cool has gone 21-8 ATS (72.4%) after Week 5 in his young career, covering by 3.6 points per game on average.
This offense now projects as one of the best in the league moving forward, especially if the offensive line can pick it up a bit. Their numbers certainly were hurt by an immobile Burrow earlier in the season, but guard Cordell Volson does remain a major liability.
In regards to Bills, the numbers don't lie. They have one of the best offenses in the NFL, ranking in the top three in EPA per Play, Success Rate and DVOA.
Bet Buffalo vs. Cincinnati at FanDuel
However, while the offenses shouldn't have any issues moving forward, the same can't be said for either defense.
Cincy lost both of its reliable starting safeties over the offseason and the replacements have really struggled, which has in turn caused both Logan Wilson and Germaine Pratt to regress substantially to the level we saw from both prior to 2022.
The Bengals don't have an elite group of corners and lack depth along the defensive line, leaving too much of the workload up to Trey Hendrickson and DJ Reader. Outside of those two, there's not much to get excited about on this side of the ball, even with a good coordinator in Lou Anarumo.
As a result, the Bengals defense ranks 18th in EPA per Play and 26th in Success Rate. Over their last two games, they only allowed the Seahawks and 49ers to score 17 points apiece. However, they benefited from extremely good fortune in the red zone and turnover departments. Despite two massive victories in those games to turn their season around, they actually got outgained by over 200 total yards (844-614).
Prior to those games, they allowed the anemic Tennessee offense to rack up 400 yards and 27 points, while Arizona even got to 20. The Bengals also allowed their first two opponents to get to 24 and 27, with only one real good effort on the season in a must-win game at home in primetime against the Rams.
Regarding Buffalo, coming into the season it boasted one of the best stop units on paper. However, key injuries to defensive tackle DaQuan Jones (who was playing at an All-Pro level), invaluable linebacker and team leader Matt Milano and shutdown cornerback Tre'Davious White have caused this defense to fall off a cliff.
Losing three of your best players on defense is hard enough, but the significant drop-off to the replacements really makes matters worse. As a result, Buffalo traded for Green Bay cornerback Rasul Douglas. He should help in coverage, but he won't solve all of the problems, especially in his first game.
Buffalo still has some plus pass rushers that can get after the quarterback and two reliable veteran safeties (although neither are getting any younger), but the rest of the unit is pretty underwhelming.
It's also worth noting that the Bills have benefited from the easiest schedule of opposing offenses to date. Since losing those three key cogs to injury, Buffalo has faced the Giants, Bucs and Patriots. This will serve as a major step up in class for some of the new pieces that are being asked to play much larger roles.
Bills vs. Bengals
Betting Picks & Predictions
Ultimately, I expect fireworks on Sunday night, so I like the over up to 50.5 despite primetime unders apparently being free money these days (60-29 over the past two seasons).
With Burrow finally appearing 100%, both offenses have distinct advantages against overrated defenses that have taken a major step back. Without flukey turnovers or complete ineptitude in the red zone (where I think both defenses have overperformed), I expect both offenses to get to at least 24 in what could turn into a classic rare primetime shootout.
In regards to the side, I like the Bills at +3, but I don't see enough value to go to the window under a field goal even if my gut says Buffalo finds a way to exact revenge.
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