Bills vs Chargers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 16 Preview
Bills vs Chargers odds have the Bills installed as 12.5-to-13-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 44.5 total points. It won't be a popular, but my NFL pick for this Saturday night NFL Week 16 game is on the home underdog to cover.
The Chargers are back in a primetime standalone game just nine days after one of the most embarrassing performances of the entire 2023 NFL season — a 63-21 loss to the Raiders. The Chargers will again be without their two most productive offensive players — Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen — as they play host to the Bills at SoFi Stadium.
Buffalo smashed Dallas 31-10 at home, and the market for this game has given the Bills a huge bump in their quest to not only make the playoffs, but potentially win the AFC East if they're able to win their final three games and get another Miami loss.
The Chargers fired both general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Brandon Staley after the debacle in Las Vegas last Thursday, and Saturday represents a prime chance to buy low and sell high based on what just happened in Week 15.
Even if the Chargers are the worst team in the NFL right now, is it time to back Easton Stick? Let’s preview the matchup and make a Bills vs Chargers prediction.
Bills vs Chargers Prediction
Pick: Chargers +13 | Bet to +12.5 |
Bills vs Chargers Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +525 |
Bills vs. Chargers Preview
The betting market has the Bills as the third-best team in the NFL at the moment, just a hair behind the Ravens and a few points behind the 49ers. They closed -2.5 at home against the Cowboys last Sunday and are now getting even more market respect.
The offense has centered more around James Cook in the last two weeks, and it's helped to make up for some real concerns in the wide receiver room. Gabe Davis, Buffalo's WR2, hasn't caught a pass in the last two weeks while Stefon Diggs has failed to clear 50 yards in three of the last four games.
The Bills have been a lot more reliant on the run game and using Josh Allen's legs to extend drives since Joe Brady took over for Ken Dorsey as the offensive coordinator.
Buffalo is at its ultimate in-season market peak right now and Los Angeles is at or near its floor. The lack of defensive effort from the Chargers was evident in their road game on a short week, and you'd expect them to benefit from having three extra days off with a new coach.
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From a net success rate perspective, the Raiders-Chargers game was actually not the most lopsided in Week 15. There were seven games where one team had a more dominant play-to-play beatdown than the Raiders did against the Chargers. Turnovers, short fields and defensive touchdowns skewed the final result into hilarious territory.
As bad as Stick and the offense may be, you don't expect the Chargers to allow two defensive touchdowns and fumble two more times inside their own territory too often. The Raiders were essentially gifted 35 free points from defensive scores and short fields.
The Chargers will need to find some success running the ball if they want to stay in this game. This wide receiver room's inability to separate likely means lots of sacks and potential fumbles if they have to drop Stick back often. The Chargers, however, rank dead last in run block grades from PFF and just lost center Will Clapp to a season-ending knee injury.
The Bills defense of late has been designed to take away explosive plays, but they're going to keep two safeties high and absolutely can be run on in early downs if the Chargers' offensive line can hold up at all.
Buffalo has no real incentive to run up the score, and we saw last week that it will be extremely methodical with a lead and not chase points.
Bills vs. Chargers
Betting Picks & Predictions
It's hard to make a football case to see how the Chargers will remain competitive in this game, but the week-to-week overreaction nature of the NFL sheds some light as to why they are undervalued in this spot.
Per Evan Abrams and our Action BetLabs data, teams that lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 111-76-4 ATS (59%) over the last 20 years. When a team is a double-digit underdog the week after a 35-plus point loss, they are 19-4-1 ATS in the next game.
A week ago, this line would have been 10. Now that it's all the way up to 12.5, it's time to buy the Chargers and Easton Stick. I'd bet Los Angeles at +12.5 or better.
Pick: Chargers +12.5 |
