Panthers vs Dolphins Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
We open the main slate of NFL Week 6 with a Panthers vs. Dolphins pick.
Miami will be without star rookie De'Von Achane, but it's still a 14-point favorite over the porous Panthers.
Let's break down the matchup and make our Panthers vs. Dolphins pick, which is affected by Achane's absence.
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Panthers vs. Dolphins
Matchup Analysis
In a very similar handicap to last week’s Miami game, the Dolphins will once again be playing against a poor rushing defense while they are heavy favorites.
Last week against the Giants, the Dolphins were able to hold on to a comfortable lead for much of the game while taking care of business on the ground. They had 222 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 23 carries. At 9.7 yards per carry, this rushing attack once again lived up to its billing.
Unfortunately, Achane went down and was placed on IR. This paves the way for Mostert to take back the lead role and get the lion’s share of the work. With Jeff Wilson Jr. also out, Mostert's backups on Sunday will only be Salvon Ahmed and Chris Brooks, so there won’t be too much competition for touches.
While Mostert has been overshadowed a bit by the emergence of Achane, he has still been explosive in his own right. Mostert is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season and already has 314 rushing yards on the year.
We were able to see what Mostert could do as the lead back earlier this season before Achane emerged. He went for 121 yards on 18 carries against New England in Week 2 before putting up 82 more yards in the blowout win against Denver. In Week 1, the Dolphins were playing catch up so Mostert saw only 10 carries for 37 yards.
Bet Carolina vs. Miami at FanDuel
Carolina ranks 31st in EPA per rush against 11 personnel and 31st against 21 personnel. These two personnel groupings have made up 90.8% of the Dolphins’ plays this year, which isn’t good news for the Panthers.
The Panthers rushing defense has been bad as a whole. They are last with a 49.6% rushing success rate allowed, as well as a last-place ranking in EPA per rush allowed. Carolina is allowing 0.156 EPA per rush.
Carolina also ranks 29th in PFF run defense grade and 24th in tackling grade. While not as bad as the Giants, Carolina is still allowing opposing backs to gain 1.46 yards before contact, which is the eighth-highest mark amongst teams playing this weekend.
Panthers vs. Dolphins
Betting Picks & Predictions
Mostert has elite speed and can make you pay for it if you don’t get your hands on him quickly. I believe that the veteran will be able to take advantage of this positive game script and put up solid numbers on the ground.
At 75.5, I am taking the over on Mostert’s yardage total and would bet this up to 79.5.
Pick: Raheem Mostert Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-110) | Bet to 79.5
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