Bears vs Packers Prediction, Pick | NFL Week 18 Odds
My Bears vs Packers prediction and pick is on the game total, which has been at 45 most of the week. The latest Bears vs Packers spread — which I have a lean for — has the Packers as 2.5-to-3-point favorites, depending on the sportsbook.
It's win and in for Green Bay at home on Sunday, and if the Packers do that then they'll be either the No. 6 or 7 seed in the NFC. Headlining the Packers' inactives for this game are WR Christian Watson and RB AJ Dillon. However, WRs Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed and LB Preston Smith are active — the trio entered Sunday listed as questionable.
The Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention, but few teams in the NFL are playing better right now. Justin Fields has played well enough down the stretch to give the Bears a difficult decision as to whether they should retain him or draft a new QB (or both) as Chicago has secured the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft already thanks to the Panthers. Matt Eberflus has this defense playing at an elite level, and the Bears are seventh in weighted DVOA as a result.
Let's preview the game and make our Bears vs Packers pick.
Bears vs Packers Prediction, Pick
Bears vs Packers Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 +105 | 46 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -125 | 46 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Bears vs. Packers Preview
If you want to evaluate the quality of Joe Barry's defense in Green Bay, just compare the performance of Tommy DeVito and Bryce Young against the Packers to their performances against other teams of late.
DeVito was benched at halftime in Philadelphia two weeks after he torched Barry's defense on Monday Night Football and won NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Young's offense was shut out in Jacksonville a week after posting 30 points and playing by far the best game of his career (eight yards per attempt) against the Packers in a 33-30 last-second loss. Baker Mayfield also won NFC player of the week and followed it up with a near goose egg against New Orleans two weeks later. Every offense and QB seems to have one of their best games against the Packers.
Green Bay shut down the Vikings because of Kevin O'Connell's decision to start Jaren Hall in the first half last week, but there's little faith in the Packers defense to stop a mobile quarterback like Justin Fields. Consider the Packers' schedule of opponents as well in the NFC. They didn't face Dallas, Philadelphia and San Francisco; they played the Rams when Matthew Stafford was injured.
The Packers are 28th in dropback success rate allowed despite this. The are just 19th in pass rush win rate and they play pretty soft in coverage while also not being great against the run. By DVOA, there are only three defenses that are 26th or worse against both the pass and the run: Denver, Green Bay and Arizona.
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The Packers aren't the only team to benefit from a soft schedule of opposing offenses.
Green Bay and Chicago have played a comparable schedule, and as a result, the Bears have faced the seventh-easiest slate of opposing offenses in the league. Chicago ranks second in dropback success rate allowed and first in EPA per pass allowed since Week 10.
There's been a clear turnaround for Chicago in the second half and the market has absolutely taken notice.
The Bears rank 14th in coverage grade (per PFF) and 23rd in pass rush win rate for the season, so I'd believe an argument that they've run really well defensively in the last few months and there is probably some regression coming. Chicago is also 31st in pass rush (per PFF). My first rule when evaluating defense is to never overreact to small samples of improved play, especially when compared to offense.
Green Bay's organizational philosophy for years has been to be conservative with players returning from injury. Once again, half the Packers offense is questionable on Sunday.
Christian Watson was ruled out on Sunday despite logging practices on Wednesday and Thursday. AJ Dillon has also been ruled out. The Packers will benefit from the returns of Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks, who both practiced Friday. Pass-rusher Preston Smith is active as well; he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and was limited on Friday.
Bears vs. Packers Pick & Prediction
There are two young quarterbacks in this game that have clearly trended up in the second half of the season. The Bears defense is at the peak of the market and the Packers defense hasn't been able to stop most of the bad quarterbacks they've faced.
Given it's January in Green Bay, the weather is expected to be relatively mild for this game. The forecasted kickoff temperature is 34 degrees with no expected precipitation and winds below 10 mph.
The total has been bet up from 44 early in the week to 45 as of Saturday morning, and I'd bet the over at the key number of 45 or better. For the spread, I lean Chicago at +3 and would bet them at +3.5.
