Cowboys vs Bills Odds, Prediction, Pick for Week 15
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2 -105 | 49 -110o / -110u | +115 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2 -115 | 49 -110o / -110u | -135 |
My NFL pick is on this spread. Cowboys vs Bills odds for NFL Week 15 have Buffalo listed as a 2-point home favorite on the spread with a game total of 49 or 49.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Buffalo survived a can't-lose game in Kansas City thanks to the much discussed and maligned Kadarius Toney offsides penalty. The Bills are once again in a must-win spot as red-hot Dallas visits Orchard Park in the highest profile Week 15 game.
Week 14 really couldn't have gone much better for the Cowboys. They not only got revenge on the Eagles and moved into first in the NFC East, but they did so in dominant fashion with a 20-point home victory. Dallas has been in the public eye in each of the last three weeks. During that span, Dak Prescott has thrown nine touchdowns, committed one turnover and his offense has scored 38, 41 and 33 points. He's now the betting favorite to win MVP.
The one key unknown factor for Cowboys vs Bills is the impact of the weather. There's a nor'easter moving up the coast on Sunday and there's a solid chance of rain and potentially high winds to impact these two dynamic offenses by kickoff.
Let's preview Dallas-Buffalo and make a Cowboys vs Bills prediction.
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Cowboys vs Bills Prediction
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Cowboys vs. Bills Preview
Buffalo beat Kansas City last week, but the performance offensively was not particularly inspiring or encouraging.
Josh Allen finished the game with a negative EPA per play, the Bills had just a 60% series success rate (NFL average is 70%) on the 15 1st-and-10 sequences that started with a pass. The Bills lost the game from a net success rate perspective overall and it felt as though their solid defensive performance had more to do with Kansas City's offensive mistakes.
After halftime, the Bills ran 36 plays for a total of 103 yards, just 3.0 yards per play. Given that was a dream situational spot for them off the bye and they had an extra week to prep, the Bills don't really deserve a market upgrade for me off that road win.
Despite that, the market has moved from a pick'em to Buffalo -2 on the back of the situational spot at home. Buffalo had 1.1 yards per play less than Kansas City in that game, for example.
The Bills offense was entirely dependent on running backs out of the backfield to make things work. James Cook had 83 receiving yards and Latavius Murray had a key 21-yard reception. Both Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are on the injury report this week, and Kincaid was limited in practice all week with multiple injuries. Gabe Davis didn't even catch a pass and doesn't match up well with a Dallas secondary that utilizes a lot of man coverage.
The entire offense could be heavily reliant on Allen creating with his legs. He's playing at an unbelievable level right now, but the offense around him has a lot more questions than answers even with the improved play calling from new offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
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The main reason to be optimistic about the Bills going forward is not just the MVP-level play from Allen, but the significant improvements made on defense.
Buffalo has been a tale of three seasons from a defensive perspective. The Bills were elite early and then terrible for a month-plus as they dealt with key injuries across the board.
Right when the market downgraded their defense again, it has come around to make real improvements. The defense will be without key safety Micah Hyde, but the unit has really cut down on explosives and forced teams to be methodical.
From Weeks 1-5, Buffalo ranked eighth in EPA per play allowed; from Weeks 6-10, it ranked 32nd. The sample is only three games since Week 11 because of a bye week, but Buffalo is back to ninth in EPA per play.
It's true that Dallas' offense hasn't been nearly as good away from home. We've all seen the Cowboys truck three consecutive bad defenses at home and we're probably near the peak value on the Cowboys offense overall. The Cowboys' three worst offensive games of the year all came before the bye week and on the road.
The Cowboys made real changes offensively to improve since that bye week and they haven't missed a beat since. If the Cowboys' team total were to dip to 24 or below, I'd bet the over.
Cowboys vs. Bills Prediction
My initial position early in the week came on the over at 50.5 in my Tuesday Bet or Pass column. The change in the weather forecast is significant enough with rain from 4-7 p.m. to make me no longer like that position.
The market really loves the Bills at home and is essentially saying they are a better team than the Cowboys. However, their offensive performance last week off the bye didn't really show me enough to buy into that given the comparisons to Dallas overall.
The Cowboys are not only a great teaser piece but at +2 or better, I'd bet Dallas.
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