| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
Action Network has everything you need to know about Cowboys vs. Chargers odds for Monday Night Football, including the total, spread and expert prediction for the final game of NFL Week 6.
A tight game at SoFi Stadium is expected as the Cowboys enter as 1.5-point favorites on the spread. That is the consensus line as of Monday afternoon, while the game total sits at 50.5 — though BetMGM is offering 49.5. On the moneyline, the best price for the Chargers (+110) is at bet365 while the best price for the Cowboys (-120) is at BetMGM.
The Cowboys are playing their second consecutive primetime game. The last time we saw them, they were pummeled by the 49ers in a 42-10 drubbing on Sunday Night Football. Dak Prescott threw three interceptions as his Cowboys were thoroughly outclassed. It's worth noting that trends are not in Dallas' favor. According to Evan Abrams in his NFL Week 6 Betting Primer, teams playing at night for a second straight game are just 44-71 straight-up (38.3%) after losing the first game.
As for the Chargers, they are coming off their bye week and return to action with a key piece that's been missing most of the season: Austin Ekeler. Coming off injuries that listed them as questionable, Joey Bosa and Joshua Palmer are also reportedly expected to play on Monday night. Los Angeles is looking to win its third straight game and maintain second place in the AFC West.
Can Prescott and the Cowboys rebound, or will the Herbert and the Chargers stay hot?
Let's dive into my Cowboys vs. Chargers pick.
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Cowboys vs. Chargers
Matchup Analysis
Justin Herbert has led the Chargers to 27.5 points per game (seventh most in the league), but this will be his toughest test of the season thus far.
After facing the fourth-easiest slate of opposing defenses, according to FTN's DVOA metric, the Chargers now have to contend with the Cowboys' eighth-ranked unit. Led by Micah Parsons, the Cowboys are also second in PFF pass rushing grade, which should give them a good chance of disrupting Herbert's timing.
Since the start of last season, Herbert has averaged 7.2 yards per attempt with 24 touchdowns and four interceptions from a clean pocket, compared to 6.4 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions when pressured, according to PFF. With Austin Ekeler back after missing the last three games, Kellen Moore will likely rely on the running and screen game in an attempt to slow down the Cowboys' pass rush.
Despite the loss of Trevon Diggs, Dallas' cornerbacks have played well. All three starters rank among the top 26 in PFF grade, with DaRon Bland second, Jourdan Lewis 20th and Stephon Gilmore 26th.
This is where the Chargers will miss Mike Williams (IR-ACL), who was averaging 83.0 yards per game this season. Rookie Quentin Johnston hasn't looked ready for primetime yet, catching 6-of-11 targets for 44 scoreless yards through four games.
Bet Dallas vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel
The Cowboys offense is sputtering without Moore's coordination.
Dallas entered the week 19th in offensive DVOA, one spot below the Baker Mayfield-led Bucs and one spot higher than the Sam Howell-led Commanders. Dak Prescott is posting career lows in yards per attempt (6.6), yards per completion (9.6) and average depth of target (7.1) in what has become a more conservative passing offense.
Prescott has struggled on the road in his career, suffering a 1.2-yard drop-off in adjusted yards per attempt and a 12.2-point drop-off in passer rating compared to at home. The Chargers rank 15th in pass defense DVOA and are trending up, but their run defense is 28th, so we may see yet another conservative game plan from Mike McCarthy after Prescott threw three interceptions last week.
One of the main problem areas for the Cowboys offense has been the red zone. Dallas has converted just 36.8% of its red-zone trips into touchdowns (fifth worst). It won't get any easier against a Chargers defense that ranks ninth in the red zone with a 50.0% touchdown conversion rate allowed.
The Chargers defense looks like an inviting matchup when you look at their full-season numbers, as they rank 22nd in DVOA — but they've improved each week, ranking 32nd in Week 1, 19th in Week 2, 13th in Week 3 and seventh in Week 4.
Not coincidentally, their two above-average weeks came with J.C. Jackson — who was traded to the Patriots — out of the lineup. Per PFF, Jackson allowed 108 yards and a touchdown on 49 snaps in coverage for the Chargers this season.
Cowboys vs. Chargers
Betting Picks & Predictions
A lot has to go right to get over a total of 51, and even if the Cowboys and Chargers are efficient, it will likely come in smaller chunks as both teams will likely look to run a bit more than usual.
According to our Action Labs data, primetime unders of 49 or higher are 103-76-2 (57%) since 2005, covering by 1.6 points per game.
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