Broncos vs Lions Prediction: Week 15 Over/Under Pick
My NFL pick for Broncos vs. Lions is on the over/under for a matchup with two offenses that should be poised to thrive tonight.
This matchup surprisingly has some major playoff implications. Inside the domed Ford Field, both offenses should carry many advantages into this contest and I'm expecting plenty of points to be scored.
Let's preview the matchup and get to my Broncos vs Lions prediction.
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Broncos vs Lions Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
Broncos vs. Lions Prediction
The Broncos defense has certainly improved as the season has gone on, but I'm not quite buying the wholesale turnaround. Denver ranked 32nd in DVOA during the first five weeks of the season, was the ninth in Weeks 6-10 and is sixth over the last four weeks. The raw numbers are impressive, but it's essential to add context.
Last week, Justin Herbert was injured in the second quarter, so Denver faced Easton Stick for more than half of its win.
In Week 13, Denver allowed 5.6 yards per play to the Texans, which is in line with the 5.9 yards per play it has given up on the season that ranks 30th in the NFL. Had it not been for three untimely interceptions by C.J. Stroud, this game would have been much uglier than the final score indicated.
Back in Week 12, Dorian Thompson-Robinson made his second career start and struggled in Denver. The week before, Joshua Dobbs led a competent offense that averaged 5.5 yards per play. In Week 10, when the Broncos got a primetime win in Buffalo, Denver’s defense was bailed out by four Bills turnovers. Buffalo racked up 7.1 yards per play as it moved the ball with ease when they weren’t getting in their own way.
I'm not sold that this defense is one of the league’s best. A whopping 20.2% of opponents' possessions in the Broncos' last eight games have resulted in a turnover. While this sounds like a positive, it's unsustainable and is masking their shortcomings.
During the same span, Denver is 13th in yards per pass attempt allowed and hasn't improved its season-long run defense ranking from dead last. The Broncos have allowed a league-high 5.5 yards per attempt this season.
Broncos vs. Lions Picks | FanDuel
Jared Goff’s performance over the past month has been shaky at times, but he's a different player when playing indoors. He has completed 69% of his passes at 8.1 yards per attempt in eight indoor games this season.
Detroit’s quarterback will be aided by a rushing attack that has dominated on first down. The Lions are averaging 5.4 yards per carry on first down, which is third-best in the league. The Lions should thrive in those scenarios against a Denver defense that seriously struggles against effective ground games.
While the Broncos defense has improved, the Lions have regressed significantly on that side of the ball. According to Sharp Football, Detroit has allowed opponents to score a touchdown on 30.3% of drives over their past seven games, ranking them 30th in that span.
The Lions have fallen to 28th in pass rush win rate and last in run stop win rate, according to ESPN. In fact, the Lions are one of only two defenses in the NFL that rank in the bottom five of both categories. (The other, you guessed it, is the Broncos.)
Over that same seven-game span, the Lions have allowed 8.4 yards per pass attempt, making them one of the three worst pass defenses in the NFL over the past two months. In their last four home games, three have gone over the total and despite taking on offenses ranked 31st, 30th, 24th and 10th in DVOA, Detroit has surrendered more than 23 points per game.
Broncos vs. Lions Prediction
The Lions' game total has gone over the total eight times in 13 games, including six of eight that have been played indoors. In 2022, the Goff-led Lions played 11 indoor games and seven went over the total (63.6%).
Given the state of the Lions defense and the fraudulent numbers propping up a vulnerable Broncos defense, this total should be much closer to the key number of 51 than the current price.
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