Broncos vs Raiders Prediction, Odds, Pick | NFL Week 18 Preview
My Broncos vs Raiders prediction is on the total, which I find to be way too high. The latest Broncos vs Raiders odds have the Raiders as 3-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 37.5 points total.
The Broncos and Raiders both were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 17 and their matchup against one another in the final week of the NFL regular season will almost certainly only matter for draft order and division positioning.
Since Antonio Pierce became interim coach, he's shown that he can motivate the Raiders to be all-in despite the near-zero playoff odds they had when he became interim coach. Davante Adams publicly backed Pierce to the media this week, and the Raiders defense has played like one of the best units in all of football for the last month.
See how I think this AFC West clash will play out in my NFL Week 18 preview for Broncos vs Raiders.
Broncos vs Raiders Prediction
Broncos vs Raiders Odds
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 37.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Broncos vs. Raiders Preview
One major cause of Denver's offensive struggles was the lack of receiving options for Stidham. Cortland Sutton missed last week's game with a concussion, but he was a full participant in practice on Friday and is cleared to return. Marvin Mims Jr. was held out last week with a hamstring problem, and he practiced fully as well.
Right tackle Mike McGlinchey will miss this game though, and it's a considerable loss in trying to contain elite Raiders pass rusher Maxx Crosby off the edge. Backup Cam Fleming graded out well in pass protection last week, but his run block numbers were quite poor, according to Pro Football Focus.
Denver ranks 15th in success rate (42.5%) and 20th in EPA per play on offense for the entire season. Most of that sample is with Wilson at quarterback. Facing a below-average Chargers defense, the Broncos posted a success rate of 42% on Sunday, almost exactly the same as they did in the first 15 games of the year on average. The issue for Denver was their total inability to run the ball which left them behind the sticks and made them inefficient in plus territory.
The Broncos had a 30% rush success rate on early downs and the downgrade from McGlinchey to Fleming seems clear in the running game. Facing a Raiders defense that has ranked seventh in rush success rate and first in EPA per rush since Week 10, Denver will have almost no running game for the second consecutive week.
Short of the Broncos hitting a bunch of explosive plays down the field to Sutton, it's hard to see them executing often play-to-play and getting touchdowns out of their scoring opportunities given the mismatch in the trench with the run.
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Broncos vs. Raiders Picks | FanDuel
There were a few explosive plays that the Raiders conceded to the Colts last week that enabled them to grab an early lead, but the Colts offense wasn’t good in that game from a success rate perspective either. The Colts had a 40% success rate overall and a 38% early down success rate against the Raiders defense.
The problem for the Raiders for the past month has been the offense under Aidan O'Connell. Outside of a late drive against a very soft Colts defense up 10, O'Connell couldn't move the ball against a defense that had surrendered a ton of points to Taylor Heinecke and Jake Browning in two of the prior three weeks.
When they're not getting two defensive scores per game — as they did against both the Chargers and Chiefs in consecutive games — the Raiders don't really score points. Las Vegas is 29th in offensive success rate since Week 10. They rank 29th in dropback success rate and 25th in overall EPA per play.
Everyone remembers the offensive explosion outlier against the Chargers in primetime, but they were shut out by the Vikings, scored six offensive points against the Chiefs, scored 13 against the Dolphins despite a ton of turnover luck and 13 points against the Colts until garbage time.
This middling Broncos defense lucked into another game to end the season against a non-NFL starter-level quarterback, and Denver has shown to be quite capable against this level of QB.
Broncos vs. Raiders Prediction & Pick
The Broncos' inability to run the ball to set up play action very much hampers the Sean Payton offense and will make them inefficient in the red zone against a Raiders defense that's playing hard to try to earn their interim coach a full-time gig. With these two quarterbacks facing off, the total should be below the key number of 37.
At 37 or higher, I'd bet the under on Sunday.
