Lions vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks | Spread, Total Prediction for Week 6
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
What bettors need to know about Lions vs. Buccaneers odds and picks — including the spread, total and prediction — can be found here at Action Network.
Lions vs. Buccaneers odds have Detroit installed as a three-point favorite on the spread. The game total over/under can be found at 43.5 at most books, though BetRivers is hanging a 43 as of early Sunday afternoon.
The public absolutely loves the over in this game with 77% expecting Detroit and Tampa Bay to go over 42.5 (at the time of writing). Don’t count me among them, though, as this has all the hallmarks of a slow-paced, low-scoring affair.
Continue reading below for my preview and why the under is my Lions vs. Buccaneers pick.
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Lions vs. Buccaneers
Matchup Analysis
It’s easy to see why the public likes the over, especially considering the Lions’ reputation as a high-scoring offense. They ranked fifth in points per game a season ago (26.6) and are averaging the fourth-most points this season (29.6).
However, a deeper dive shows the Lions likely won’t be as productive since the game is in Tampa.
Detroit’s offense is drastically different at home compared to the road since Dan Campbell took over as head coach. The Lions averaged 22.1 points per game at home his first season (2021) compared to just 16.4 on the road. It was even more drastic last season when they averaged a league-high 33.1 PPG at Ford Field vs. just 19.4 away. That trend’s continued through five games so far in 2023 — the Lions average 31.0 points at home vs. 27.5 away.
At the same time, Goff’s struggles playing outdoors over the last two seasons are quite staggering. He averaged 2.4 touchdowns per game indoors last season, but less than one (0.7) outdoors. It's been more of the same this season — he’s averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns indoors but only one outdoors.
Goff faces a particularly daunting task at Raymond James Stadium. The elements don’t usually wreak havoc in Tampa, but they might play a major factor this week as the forecast calls for heavy winds.
According to our Pro System, the under hits 57% of the time in similar conditions to what Goff will likely face come kickoff.
Additionally, while the Lions are capable of big plays through they air, they’re actually one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. The Lions run the ball 49.85% of the time, which is fourth most in the NFL. They rush it even more on the road as their 52.85% is far and away the most in the league.
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The Buccaneers are another run-heavy team, pounding the rock 47.37% of the time, which ranks fifth just behind the Lions. Their commitment to running the ball is so strong that they haven’t deviated from it despite averaging a league-low 3.0 yards per carry.
Combine each team’s preference to move the ball at a snail’s pass and scoring opportunities may be at a premium.
Don’t expect Baker Mayfield to take deep shots when he does drop back to pass either. He’s been a revelation this season, resurrecting a career that appeared to be on its last legs, but explosive plays have been few and far between. He ranks 20th in the league on big-play completions (seven), preferring to dink and dunk it down the field.
Add it all up and it shouldn't come as a shock that Buccaneers games have been low-scoring affairs. They average 38.0 points with just one game totaling more than 40 points.
Finally, it’s important to note each team’s prowess on defense as the Lions rank third in DVOA while the Buccaneers are sixth.
This will be the toughest defense either team’s faced to date.
Lions vs. Buccaneers
Betting Picks & Predictions
The over superficially seems like a strong play, which is why the public is all over it. However, it’s clear that there are several factors at play beneath the surface that favor the under.
I’m fully aligned with the sharps and big money (79%), and I am gladly taking the under. It opened at 45.5 but has steadily dropped to 42.5.
I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops a tick before kickoff, so if you’re a believer in the under, you want to act fast.
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