Lions vs Cowboys Prediction & NFL Week 17 Pick
My Lions vs Cowboys prediction and NFL Week 17 pick is targeting the Cowboys offense to bounce back at home after suffering back-to-back losses for the first time since the 2021 regular season. As for the Lions, they're riding high as securing their first division title since 1993. Both of these teams are playoff bound, but there's plenty to play for in terms of seeding in the NFC.
Lions vs Cowboys Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -230 |
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Lions vs Cowboys Prediction & Pick
Cowboys Team Total Over 28.5 (-110) | Play to 29.5 |
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Lions vs Cowboys Preview
The Cowboys are second in the NFL in scoring at 30.2 points per game, and given their home-road splits, that average is a good bet to tick up after this game.
- Home: 39.9 points per game, 6.1 yards per play, 8.4 yards per pass attempt
- Road: 21.5 points per game, 5.0 yards per play, 6.8 yards per pass attempt
The Cowboys have scored on 63% of drives at home compared to 39% on the road. They've converted 61% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns at home while doing so at just a 46% clip on the road.
A big catalyst for Dallas' offensive explosion at home has been the play of Dak Prescott. The eight-year vet is in the MVP discussion primarily because of his play at home, where he's thrown for 303.6 yards per game with 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions — far superior to his 220.9 yards and 10:5 TD:INT ratio on the road. This has been the case throughout his career, as he has led the Cowboys to a 42-15 record at home with a passer rating of 105.1 while going just 29-26 with a 91.8 rating on the road.
Prescott and company will face a Lions defense that has been trending down since getting exposed by the Ravens, who pasted Detroit for 38 points and 503 total yards of offense in a 38-6 dismantling in Week 7. According to rbsdm.com, from Week 7 on, the Lions defense is 26th in Expected Points Added per Play (0.058) and dead last in EPA per dropback (0.202).
The Lions really miss safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who is slated to miss at least one more game with a pectoral injury. The Lions' pass defense could be even further compromised if starting corner Cameron Sutton is out or playing at less than 100% after being added to the injury report on Friday with a toe injury that prevented him from participating in Detroit's final practice of the week.
We can be fairly certain that the post-bye version of the Cowboys will exploit Detroit's secondary. They've averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game since their Week 7 bye, up from 32.5 in the first six weeks of the season.
Lions vs. Cowboys Picks | FanDuel
After winning their first division title since 1993, the Lions could be in for a letdown spot facing a Cowboys squad coming off back-to-back losses for the first time since Weeks 11-12 of the 2021 season. Since Mike McCarthy took over as head coach in 2020, the Cowboys are 16-7 (70%) straight-up and 15-8 (65%) against the spread after a loss.
That's not to say the Lions don't have a path to upending the Cowboys. If Jared Goff gets time to throw, he should be able to carve up a Cowboys defense that plays the highest rate of man coverage in the league (63.1%, per FTN). Goff's Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt this season goes from 6.4 against zone to 7.8 versus man.
Of course, that's a big "if" because all bets are off if Micah Parsons and company are able to generate pressure, which they've been able to do at a 32.9% clip this year, the fourth-best mark in the NFL (per FTN). Goff has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt with 20 touchdowns and two interceptions from a clean pocket, but just 6.2 YPA with six touchdowns and eight picks under pressure (per Pro Football Focus).
So long as the Lions don't fall way behind, they can also take advantage of the edge they should have on the ground against a Cowboys unit that ranks last in rush success rate allowed (45.1%, per rbsdm.com). The Lions boast a top-five rushing attack behind Jahmyr Gibbs, who leads all qualified rushers with 5.7 yards per carry, and David Montgomery, who is eighth among qualifiers with a 54.4% rushing success rate (per Pro Football Reference).
Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction & NFL Week 17 Pick
The Cowboys are a good bet to go over their team total and get to 30 points in this spot, whether it happens because of Detroit's weaknesses on defense or the Lions' ability to score and force a shootout.
The last two times the Lions faced above-average quarterbacks on the road, they gave up 38 points apiece to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 7 and Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Week 10.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have reached 30 points in 15-of-24 (63%) home games since 2021. This season, they've posted at least 30 points in all seven home games, with at least 33 in 6-of-7.
Pick: Cowboys Team Total Over 28.5 (-110) | Play to 29.5 |
