Jets vs Dolphins Best Bets: Black Friday
The first NFL Black Friday game has arrived, and you're in the right place. Our Jets vs. Dolphins best bets feature a trio of player props — two for Tyreek Hill and one for Tyler Conklin.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
| 3 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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By Cody Goggin
I already touched in my game preview that I like the Dolphins to win and cover. However, there are multiple props that I think are valuable on the Jets’ side.
Just looking at Tim Boyle’s college stats, you’d be hard-pressed to figure out how he has an NFL career as a player. At UConn, he had one passing touchdown to 13 interceptions in his career. He averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt and completed 48.4% of his passes.
After transferring to Eastern Kentucky, Boyle threw for 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, averaging 6.5 yards per pass.
Between the three games that Boyle has started in his NFL career and the ones he has appeared in mop-up duty, there has been a common theme — Boyle loves checking down to his tight ends and running backs at an above-average rate.
Last week, tight ends Tyler Conklin and Jeremy Ruckert saw a combined five of Boyle’s 14 pass attempts. A similar trend emerges when looking at his previous stops.
In Boyle’s first game with Detroit, he heavily targeted T.J. Hockensen in their only game together. With Green Bay, Robert Tonyan also saw the lion’s share of targets.
Tyler Conklin is third on the Jets in routes run behind Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Conklin has 44 targets, which he has converted into 35 catches for 381 yards.
I expect that the Jets will be playing from behind for much of the game and Boyle will need to throw the ball. Based on how Boyle has played in his NFL career so far, I think that we will once again see a heavy dose of short passes, leading to Conklin seeing plenty of work.
Conklin’s current receptions total is 2.5 at heavy minus money. I still like laying this line at the current price of -160 and would take it up to -175.
Pick: Tyler Conklin Over 2.5 Receptions (-160 | Bet to -175)
The matchup for Hill isn't a great one and the total is much lower than we generally see in a Dolphins game, but I really don't care.
Essentially matchup proof, head coach Mike McDaniel will scheme the ball into Hill’s hands early and often. Hill is on a historic pace with 1,222 yards receiving through 10 games; it’s possible he ends up hitting 2,000.
Hill’s gone over 100 yards in six out of 10 games and he has hit the over at this number (75.5) seven times. He's averaging over 10 targets per game and the Dolphins have already shown they will keep their foot on the gas even when they're up big.
I would hit this line all the way up to 80.5.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Bet to 80.5
There's little questioning how great the Jets defense has played all season, especially against the pass. But New York actually ranks below average by DVOA against opposing WR1s, and the Jets have given up some pretty juicy lines to star wideouts:
- Stefon Diggs: 10/102
- CeeDee Lamb: 11/143
- A.J. Brown: 7/131
- Keenan Allen: 8/77
- Davante Adams: 6/86
I don't need to tell you about the ridiculous production Hill has put up game after game; he's still on record pace over halfway through the season.
He's gone over 75.5 yards in seven of 10 games, and he has 112-plus in six of them and 146-plus in half. The Jets defense is too good to get too crazy with escalators, but expect Hill to clear 76 like usual and put some of your bet on 100-plus yards at +235.
I think the Jets come out fired up with Tim Boyle at quarterback and keep this close, but I just have to bet the first-ever Black Friday game and I can't ignore these bad lines on Hill.
I looked at 8-plus receptions (+225) and 10-plus (+725), too. He's had eight catches in 7-of-10 games and double digits three times, and I don't mind if you set up an 8-catch, 100-yard SGP either.
But I'll keep it simple and sprinkle Hill's yardage and see if I can get some Black Friday shopping money.
Pick: Tyreek Hill Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110); 100+ Receiving Yards (+235)
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