Rams vs Eagles Odds, Picks for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
Here's everything you need to know about Rams vs Eagles odds and picks for Week 5, including the spread, the total and our expert prediction.
Eagles vs. Rams odds for NFL Week 5 have the reigning NFC Champions as favorites in the clash at SoFi Stadium. The Eagles enter as 4-point favorites on the spread with the game total sitting at 50.5.
Philadelphia is one of two unbeaten teams — San Francisco being the other — in the NFL entering Week 5. The Eagles and 49ers haven't slipped up to date, though the Eagles had to play overtime last week at home to beat the Commanders.
The Eagles will face a tricky test on Sunday against the Rams (2-2), who have outperformed expectations and are looking at a possible playoff berth down the line. The Rams managed to finish .500 in the four games without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who makes his return to the lineup from the injured reserve.
Kupp joins a now explosive wide receiver group alongside breakout fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua and second-year speedster Tutu Atwell. Matthew Stafford may not have much of an offensive line to protect him, but the gunslinger is playing at a high level and gets to face a defense that hasn't really been tested by a top passer yet.
Continue reading below for my full game preview, which includes Rams vs Eagles picks on the spread and moneyline.
Eagles vs. Rams
Matchup Analysis
The Eagles have the advantage on the offensive line — as they do against most teams — and will try to establish the run early in this contest. Philly looks to control time of possession — it ranks third in the NFL in EPA per rush on offense; the Rams, meanwhile, grade out right around league average against the run.
When you consider the Rams' opponents thus far – two good run offenses and two bad ones — it's somewhat encouraging that their defensive line is third in rush stop win rate. The defense overall is 17th in EPA per rush and they've struggled to stop explosive runs at times, but this isn't like the Minnesota defense that the Eagles completely dominated.
Jalen Hurts hasn't played at the same level of offensive efficiency through the air this season. He finished last year second in MVP voting with top-five ranks in EPA per play and EPA + CPOE composite. He also was in the top half of the league in overall success rate.
Through four games, Hurts is 18th in EPA per play, 13th in EPA + CPOE composite and 22nd in Success Rate (out of 32 quarterbacks).
Both the Rams and Eagles offenses are tied for eighth in series success rate, a metric that measures what percent the offense turns a 1st and 10 into a new set of downs (or scores). Both offenses have performed about even this season.
Turnovers have crept into the Eagles offense a bit after running well last season. But in general, the offense has clearly regressed under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson.
I'm not too worried about the Eagles offense in the medium-to-long term because of the talent and the dominant offensive line, but I have real questions about the quality of the defense against the pass.
Bet Philadelphia vs. Los Angeles at FanDuel
Last year, the opposition was able to run on Philly's scheme under then-defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. The Eagles, however, made up for that overall as they were still No. 1 in defensive DVOA and elite against the pass. Because of changes at linebacker, injuries in the secondary and the new scheme, the Eagles secondary is considerably more vulnerable.
Comparatively, the Rams defense has done a better job of preventing opposing offenses from getting a new set of downs. In fact, the Eagles rank below average defensively in series conversion rate allowed, per PFF.
When you again consider the schedule of opponents, it's a bit alarming. Last year, the Eagles nearly broke the NFL single-season sack record. This year, Philadelphia is second in run stop win rate and has been elite against the run, but the pass rush has taken a step back.
Then there's the elite pocket passer problem.
The Eagles defense under Gannon struggled mightily to slow down good pocket passers. Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff and even Derek Carr carved up the Eagles in 2021 and 2022. Kirk Cousins didn't have many problems doing the same in Week 2 and Stafford should have similar success if he has enough time to throw.
That's a big if, but these two teams have played a closer than the market suggests with this line.
Eagles vs. Rams
Betting Picks & Predictions
This game opened Eagles -5.5 with the total at 47 early in the week. It's no surprise to see that the over took a lot of money following the second-half performances of both defenses.
The Rams blew a 23-point second-half lead against a rookie quarterback and the Eagles allowed 31 points to a mediocre Sam Howell at home. Philly could've even lost as a nine-point favorite if Ron Rivera had made the decision to go for two.
The Eagles defense is getting marginally healthier overall, but this is a unit that grades out as below average at this point in the season.
Given the Eagles' defensive struggles and the market still catching up to the improved Rams offense, I'd bet Los Angeles to cover the spread and also sprinkle the L.A. moneyline.
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