Giants vs Dolphins Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 5 Preview
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
Week 5 NFL betting odds for Giants vs Dolphins have Miami tagged as a huge home favorite over New York in this matchup, with Miami having moved from -12.5 to -13 in the hour before kickoff on Sunday.
The Dolphins offense has taken the league by storm to start the year and we probably won't see them slow down against a porous Giants defense on Sunday.
Miami's electric playmakers, and the various ways in which they are deployed, have been behind much of the success. However, it appears the market is still failing to account for how successful the Dolphins' rushing attack has been, particularly rookie De’Von Achane.
Let's make a Giants vs. Dolphins pick and preview this lopsided non-conference clash — at least on paper. Here's everything you need to know about Giants vs Dolphins odds, including our pick and prediction in this NFL Week 5 preview.
Giants vs. Dolphins
Matchup Analysis
I began my research for this game eyeing Raheem Mostert and wanting to write about how underpriced he was relative to De’Von Achane. A funny thing happened when watching tape from the last few weeks though: I become even more sold on Achane’s talent and his role in Miami's offense.
Mike McDaniel has used both of these explosive backs in a variety of ways. They are often on the field at the same time, both in the passing game and when rushing the ball. Motion and misdirection are ever present with this Dolphins scheme and trying to keep up with these backs — plus Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle — can become exhausting.
I believe that this week’s game is the perfect matchup for both of these backs to display their elite speed. As 12.5-point favorites, it’s likely that Miami will end up in a positive game script and we will see Mostert and Achane get plenty of work as the game goes on.
However, I think both of these backs could have big days in the early going against this New York defense. This season, the Giants rank 23rd in EPA per rush allowed. They are also 27th in PFF run defense grade and 30th in PFF tackling grade.
The one thing you can’t do when playing the Dolphins is allow their playmakers to run in space without being touched. Miami ranks second in yards before contact per rush. Meanwhile, the Giants rank last in the league, according to PFF, in yards before contact allowed.
Opponents of the Giants are averaging 1.80 yards before contact per carry on average this season. For Achane, this has been an insane number at 7.30 yards before contact per attempt. The next-closest player in the league is at 4.4.
Bet New York vs. Miami at FanDuel
The Dolphins' running game has been unreal this season. They rank first in PFF run grade with a 92.8. They also lead the league with 0.071 EPA per run and rank second in rushing success rate.
Despite not seeing real game action until two weeks ago, Achane is already sixth in the NFL in rushing yards. On just 27 attempts, he has 309 yards on the ground. His 11.4 yards per attempt is obviously the top mark in the league by a wide margin.
This rate isn’t likely to be sustained by Achane, but it just goes to show how explosive of a player he is.
As this efficiency ticks down a notch, I expect to see the Dolphins integrate him more as McDaniel will want to get the ball in his hands as much as possible going forward.
Giants vs. Dolphins
Betting Picks & Predictions
With a matchup against a poor rush defense, and in a game that the Dolphins should be playing from ahead, I think both Dolphins backs can go off this weekend.
Achane looks to be a rising star and should keep getting more looks as he continues to settle into the offense. I don’t want to fade Mostert either as I think he also has the ability to have a big day. With playing time being split about evenly for these two, there’s a chance that both go over their totals.
At 50.5 yards, I think that Achane’s number is much too low. He has the potential to hit this mark on any given play.
If Achane can hit just double-digit carries, which I think he will, then he should breeze past this low total as he continues to light the league on fire.
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