Packers vs Broncos Odds, Spread: Total Prediction for Week 7
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | -110 |
Packers vs. Broncos odds for NFL Week 7 indicate a tight game is in store at Mile High. Green Bay-Denver is basically a pick'em as kickoff nears — both teams are -110 on the moneyline at bet365 with the game total at 43.5 or 44 depending on the book.
In the midst of two-game losing streaks, Green Bay and Denver are desperate for a win. The Broncos are 1-5 and approaching full-on tank mode, while the Packers are 2-3 and need a win to keep pace in the NFC playoff race.
The Packers are coming off their bye week and the Broncos played on Thursday Night Football last week, so both teams enter with extra rest and should come out sharp. It's worth noting that Denver has to cover this season, currently 0-5-1 against the spread (ATS) through six games, according to Evan Abrams.
Let's preview the game then make a Packers vs. Broncos pick.
Packers vs. Broncos
Matchup Analysis
The Broncos franchise is in a miserable spot.
The Russell Wilson trade has been a tremendous failure and Sean Payton's hiring has somehow led to nothing but more embarrassment. This team, by most metrics, is actually worse than Nathaniel Hackett’s 2022 Broncos were at this point in the season. Denver could potentially go into tank mode for one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft, but it would potentially still be stuck with the most expensive backup quarterback in the NFL.
The Broncos defense finally showed signs of life in last week’s matchup against the Chiefs as they held Kansas City to just 19 points. However, that can mostly be chalked up to them buckling down in the red zone. Patrick Mahomes shredded the secondary, but Denver held the Chiefs to four field goals and just one touchdown.
Unfortunately for the Broncos, in the week in which they turned in their best defensive performance of the year, they also had their worst offensive performance.
The Broncos accrued less than 200 yards of total offense and Wilson posted less than 100 passing yards. Denver is 30th in overall DVOA, ahead of only the Giants and Panthers. That is due in large part to them being 32nd in defensive DVOA.
Bet Green Bay vs. Denver at FanDuel
The Packers have had an up-and-down season. Jordan Love has shown flashes, but he hasn't been able to find the consistency necessary to win a lot of games.
Love is in the middle of the pack (17th) when it comes to EPA per play, but he is 32nd in CPOE (completion percentage over expected), with only Anthony Richardson worse among qualified quarterbacks.
Based on those two figures, you can tell Love’s been on opposite ends of the spectrum. He's made some great throws and some really bad ones that have leveled him out to the middle in EPA per play. However, the CPOE shows he can't consistently hit the basic throws that are needed to move the chains. Those are the throws the Broncos have been giving away all season.
Despite all of these somewhat negative figures, these offenses are perfectly average by DVOA. The Packers are 16th in offensive DVOA and the Broncos are just behind at 17th. More importantly, the two offenses match up perfectly with the opposing defense. The Packers have been better at throwing the ball than running as they sit 11th in pass offense DVOA. Meanwhile, the Broncos have run the ball much better than they have thrown as they sit at 11th in rush offense DVOA.
The Broncos defense ranks last in defensive pass DVOA, so this game is the perfect opportunity for Love to get comfortable. This is the defense that allowed Zach Wilson’s Jets to score 31, Justin Fields’ Bears to score 28 and Sam Howell’s Commanders to score 35 — not to mention the 70-burger from the Dolphins. Love should be able to show off his arm talent in this spot.
Meanwhile, Russell Wilson should bounce back against a defense that's much worse than the defenses he's faced the past two weeks. The Broncos backfield has a pretty well-rounded stable of backs with Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin all contributing in both the run and pass game.
The Packers defense ranks 26th in rush DVOA and should have a lot of trouble stopping Denver's rushing attack.
Packers vs. Broncos
Betting Picks & Predictions
People will see two bad teams and instinctively think to bet the under, but these offenses are both superior to the opposing defense.
The Broncos’ strong run game matches up well with the Packers’ poor run defense, while the Packers’ strong pass offense matches up well with the Broncos’ weak pass defense.
This game should go over the total of 44.
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