Bengals vs Colts Odds, Prediction
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Bengals vs. Colts odds for NFL Week 14 have the Bengals as 1.5-to-2-point favorites on the spread with a game total 44. This somewhat surprising spread is my NFL pick for this game.
This is one of four Week 14 games with backup QBs facing off, and it just might be the most exciting. Gardner Minshew and Jake Browning are volatile; they've each shown they can lead their respective team to victory, or completely throw a game away.
Let's deep dive into Indianapolis-Cincinnati and make a Bengals vs. Colts prediction.
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Bengals vs Colts Picks
Bengals vs. Colts
Matchup Analysis
Gardner Minshew has started eight games for the Colts but has played meaningful snaps in 10 games overall due to Anthony Richardson's injuries. In those 10 games, the Colts are 7-3 and they are currently on a four-game winning streak. However, the competition has been mediocre at best as the Colts have beaten the Titans, Buccaneers, Patriots and Panthers.
During the streak, the Colts defense has been the driving force. Indy’s defense has forced 2.25 turnovers per game in its last four games. Beyond the turnovers, the red-zone defense has been fierce. Indy has the second-lowest red-zone touchdown efficiency allowed in its last three games, according to Team Rankings. Stopping drives and creating scoring opportunities is why the Colts have triumphed despite being outgained in three of their victories.
Offensively, the Colts have played respectably despite being forced to play Minshew. Indy ranks 16th in points per drive and 20th in yards per drive. Following the trend of being aggressively average offensively, the Colts rank 17th in net yards per pass and 18th in yards per carry.
While the offense is middle of the road, when the defense forces turnovers and plays well situationally, the Colts are hard to beat. However, if Indy falls into a negative game script, we get games like the ones against the Jags and Browns where the Colts committed a combined eight turnovers.
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Turning to the Bengals, they may be 1-3 in their last four games but that one win lit the NFL media on fire. In primetime, Cincinnati went to Jacksonville and kept its playoff hopes alive by winning a shootout.
The biggest shock of the game was Jake Browning looking like Joe Burrow. Browning completed 32-of-37 passes for 354 yards, one touchdown, and most importantly, no turnovers. The Bengals have excellent playmakers all over the field. If Browning can protect the ball and allow his guys to make plays, Cincinnati may be more potent than people thought.
Defensively, Cincinnati has flashed its potential in a couple of games, but has been disappointing on the whole. The Bengals rank 31st in yards per drive allowed and 24th in points per drive allowed.
Recent contests have only been worse as Cincinnati has allowed an average of 436 yards and 28 PPG in the last four games. Those numbers will not be good enough with Browning moving forward.
Bengals vs. Colts
Betting Picks & Predictions
The line to this game screams overreaction to what happened on Monday Night.
The Bengals' offensive production against Jacksonville was on par with the best games led by Burrow. I am going to guess there will be a significant regression this week. Not just from the quality of play but also because each game Browning plays adds tape for opponents to make adjustments.
Indy’s defense has been one of the best situationally in recent weeks and that is due to its coaching. As long as the Colts aren’t forced to throw, their offense can get the job done.
In the battle of backup quarterbacks, I am going to trust the team that has succeeded in the situation longer. The Bengals being overvalued because of a primetime win just adds a little cushion for the spread.
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