Led by defensive coordinator Matt Burke, the Texans' rush defense has undergone a complete turnaround, going from most exploitable to a borderline elite front seven in under one season. In Week 16, Houston faces another test in Jerome Ford, and I see value in fading his rushing props.
Since his 107-yard performance against the Ravens, Ford has struggled with efficiency. Additionally, his production isn't fully guaranteed as Cleveland also rotates in Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong. When Ford has been on the field, he's put together yards per carry averages of 2.6, 7.2, 2.1, 4.3 and 2.5. That's not the consistent reliability that lead-back Nick Chubb produced when he was active.
Ford's EPA gained on rush attempts ranks 42nd amongst 43 qualified backs with a minimum of 100 carries (per SIS Football), and it won't get easier behind a banged-up offensive line. Cleveland's offensive line has struggled to stay healthy and will be missing opening day starters Jedrick Wills Jr., Dawand Jones and Jack Conklin. All-pro guard Joel Bitonio is also questionable (back/knee).
If Bitonio misses this game, it'll further emphasize an apparent mismatch in the trenches. Since Week 5, the Texans have surrendered an average of 62.2 rushing yards to opposing backs. Additionally, running backs are averaging just 3.19 yards per carry, a season low for Houston's defense, in that span. Houston's fearsome four was on full display last week, limiting Derrick Henry to 16 yards on 0.56 yards per carry.
Cleveland's inefficient rushing attack has forced the offense to rely heavily on Joe Flacco and the passing game. If Ford maintains the 10.0 average attempts he's seen in his past five games, I find it very unlikely that he'll exceed this prop.
Pick: Jerome Ford Under 43.5 Rushing Yards |
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