Jets vs Broncos Odds, Picks for Week 5: Spread, Total, Prediction
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
Here's everything you need to know about Jets vs Broncos odds and picks for Week 5, including the spread, the total and our expert prediction.
Jets vs. Broncos odds for Week 5 have Denver installed as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total over/under is currently 42.5 points scored by both teams combined.
The Jets offense has been abysmal under Zach Wilson, but showed signs of life last week against Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Broncos, who have surrendered at least 28 points in their last three games, are a tonic for struggling offenses. Add it all up and this is as good a spot as any for New York’s offense to get right.
There are several ways to bet the Jets, but I see backing Breece Hall as the most favorable path to profit. The over on Hall's rushing yards is my Jets vs. Broncos pick and prediction.
Jets vs. Broncos
Matchup Analysis
New York eased Hall into action after he blew out his knee last year, but he’ll finally be off his “pitch count” this week, according to head coach Robert Saleh. Ironically enough, Empower Field at Mile High is where Hall suffered his injury last October, so it's only fitting that he’s set to be unleashed at the scene of the crime.
It’s also perfect timing as Denver boasts a horrific run defense that's easily the worst in the league. The Broncos have given up 704 total yards on the ground and opponents are averaging 176.0 yards per game. That’s 19 yards per game more than the 31st-ranked team.
The Broncos have been gashed all year, and were thoroughly embarrassed two weeks ago when the Dolphins ran for 350 yards. Overall, Denver’s defense has the second-worst rush DVOA and is fourth worst in expected points contributed by rushing defense (-15.25).
It won’t get any easier this week against Hall, who’s averaging 6.6 yards per carry. That’s the second-best mark in the league among qualifying running backs, trailing only De’Von Achane (11.3), who ran for 203 yards against this very same defense.
Meanwhile, we don’t know exactly what Saleh means when he says Hall will be without a “pitch count,” but even a modest increase in touches should be enough to hit the over.
Bet New York vs. Denver at FanDuel
Hall has split the load evenly with Dalvin Cook thus far (32 to 30), but has been far more effective. Hall’s totaled 210 yards (6.6 YPC) compared to Cook’s 74 (2.5 YPC), so if the Jets have completely removed the bubble wrap, it makes sense for Hall to start seeing the vast majority of carries.
Teams understandably opt to run it down Denver’s throat and rush 48.09% of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league. I expect the Jets to follow what’s been a successful game plan, but even if they don’t, Hall may only need a handful of carries to hit the over as he has a penchant for breaking off huge runs. His three rushes of at least 20 yards are tied for third most in the NFL, despite him having significantly fewer carries than most of the league leaders.
Finally, New York’s had this game circled on the calendar ever since Sean Payton made pointed comments about former Broncos head coach and current Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett over the summer.
The Jets did not take kindly to those comments, and mentioned several times this week that they have “a little bigger chip” on their shoulders and that they are “rallying behind” Hackett.
This feels like a perfect storm brewing for Hall to dominate Denver. The Jets have taken things slow with him over the first quarter of the season, and there’s no better spot to fully unleash their explosive back than against the league’s worst run defense.
Jets vs. Broncos
Betting Picks & Predictions
I like Hall’s chances of hitting the over, even if he gets only a few more carries than he’s gotten so far. However, I absolutely love it if Saleh gives him the lion’s share, and I’m hopeful he’ll do just that.
You could get this as low as 58.5 heading into the week, albeit at significant juice, but I’m grabbing it at 60.5 — a number most books are offering — with a more favorable payout.
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