Chiefs vs Patriots Prediction: NFL Week 15 Odds, Preview
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | +325 |
My NFL pick for this game is on the total, fading a pair of struggling offenses. Chiefs vs. Patriots odds for NFL Week 15 have Kansas City installed as an 8-point road favorite on the spread with a game total of 37 or 37.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Tensions are high in Kansas City in the aftermath of a 1-3 skid punctuated by a potential game-winning touchdown nullified by a Kadarius Toney penalty. The Chiefs will try to rebound against the Patriots, but that may be more challenging than anticipated a week ago.
The Patriots just played their best game since beating the Bills in October and have extra rest after playing on Thursday night. If the Chiefs take a laissez-faire approach to this matchup, they could fall victim to a similar trap as the Steelers.
Let's preview Kansas City-New England and make a Chiefs vs. Patriots prediction.
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Chiefs vs Patriots Prediction
Chiefs vs. Patriots Preview
Since their bye in Week 10, the Chiefs have struggled to uphold their reputation as an unstoppable force offensively. They have scored 20 or more points just once and have not thrown for 300 yards in any game, and they have fallen short of 200 passing yards twice.
If we write off recent struggles as a mild slump, we still need to acknowledge their struggles situationally. On fourth down, Kansas City ranks 25th in conversion rate and 31st in total number of conversions. In the red zone, Kansas City ranks 14th in touchdown rate.
Kansas City is cutting edge in terms of play design and scheme, but is held back by conservative decision-making. In prior years, the offense played at a level where it didn’t need those small edges. The Chiefs will either need some production improvements from their receiving core or simply play more aggressively to make up for the step back.
Before their bye, when the Chiefs offense struggled, the defense would pick up the slack. However, the defense is not shutting teams down as it used to.
They have allowed 20 or more points in three of their last four games compared to four total before the bye. They are down to averaging just 0.5 turnovers forced per game compared to 1.4 before the bye.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Picks | FanDuel
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The Patriots shocked many by lighting up the scoreboard in the first half against the Steelers. It was exciting to finally see the Patriots offense look like it belonged in the NFL — unfortunately, we only saw it for one half. New England immediately regressed and didn’t score for the rest of the game.
Even with their excellent half of offense, the Patriots are last in points per game and 28th in yards per game. As you would expect with a bottom-of-the-barrel offense, New England struggles in the air and on the ground. The Patriots rank 27th in net yards per pass and 24th in yards per carry.
The Patriots' defense may be one of the most overlooked units in the league.
New England’s defense is fourth in yards per drive allowed and fifth in points per drive allowed. The only major flaw is an inability to force turnovers as they only have 12 on the year.
For all of the negative publicity Bill Belichick has been getting recently, it is clear he can still scheme a great defense.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Prediction
This pick seems pretty clear with two struggling offenses and two good defenses. That kind of matchup screams, "Take the under!"
On the year, unders for both the Chiefs and Patriots have hit in nine of 14 games.
The Chiefs already play a low-variance brand of football with conservative fourth-down decisions, and an inept offense like the Patriots' won't force them to break from those practices.
Even though the Chiefs have allowed opponents to average 21 points recently, I trust them to stop the Patriots. In the Pats' last four games, outside of the one good half against Pittsburgh, they've scored a total of 14 points. The Chiefs' top-of-the-line defense should keep them in their place.
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