| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +265 |
Lions vs. Raiders odds have Detroit as a seven-point favorite at most sportsbooks, as of 5:15 p.m. ET on Monday afternoon, with the over/under sitting between 45.5 and 46.5.
Both teams were embarrassed in Week 7, but at least Detroit was blown out by a quality Ravens team. Las Vegas spent last week getting beaten by the Bears, who were led by a backup quarterback.
Let's break down the game and get to my Lions vs. Raiders prediction, which is on the spread.
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Lions vs. Raiders Preview
Matchup Analysis
A week after scoring a season-low six points in a 38-6 loss to the Ravens, the Lions offense is in a bounce-back spot against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in DVOA.
Jared Goff took a season-high five sacks last week but should have time against a Raider pass rush that ranks 30th in pressure rate (16.3%) despite the presence of Maxx Crosby. Goff is averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt with two touchdowns and three interceptions under pressure this season, but from a clean pocket, he has posted 8.1 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and one interception.
Bet at FanDuel: Make Your Lions vs. Raiders Pick
Jimmy Garoppolo will make his sixth start for the Raiders against a Lions defense that ranks No. 9 in DVOA against the pass.
Detroit generated pressure at an above-average rate (23.9%, 14th) despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate (19.8%), and the ability to get pressure with a four-man rush will be key in this matchup. Garoppolo's passer rating is 109.1 from a clean pocket but 11.0 under pressure this season.
Despite having familiarity with Josh McDaniels' system and enjoying the services of Davante Adams, Garoppolo has experienced a drop-off in performance relative to his time with the 49ers: His yards per attempt has dropped from 8.3 to 7.3 while his interception rate has gone from 2.6% to 5.4%.
One thing Garoppolo does not have in Las Vegas that he had with San Francisco is the benefit of a run game. The Raiders rank dead last in yards per carry (3.0), rushing yards per game (68.6) and rushing DVOA (-30.5%). That doesn't figure to change against a Lions run defense that ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed (3.7), second in yards per game allowed (76.3), and eighth in DVOA (-19.0%).
All DVOA data via FTN. All defensive pressure data via Pro Football Reference. All other data via PFF unless otherwise noted.
Lions vs. Raiders Prediction
My Betting Pick
The Lions have been fairly predictable this year, beating up on bad teams but struggling against top-end competition. Detroit has faced three top-10 teams in DVOA, which resulted in a close win (21-20 vs. third-ranked Kansas City), a close loss (37-31 vs. ninth-ranked Seattle), and a blowout loss (38-6 vs. first-ranked Baltimore). Against teams more similar to the 30th-ranked Raiders, they've won by 14 or more each time.
- Week 3 vs. ATL (24th): Won 20-6
- Week 4 at GB (25th): Won 34-20
- Week 5 vs. CAR (32nd): Won 42-24
- Week 6 at TB (20th): Won 20-6
History suggests this will indeed be a bounce-back spot for the Lions. According to our Action labs data, teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better coming off a loss by 20 or more points are 80-39-1 (67%) ATS since 2003, covering by 5.4 points per game.
Favorites by more than 5.5 points in this spot are 29-9 (76%) ATS, also covering by 5.5 points per game.
