Patriots vs Chargers Odds, Prediction
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 39.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
The latest Patriots vs. Chargers odds have Los Angeles listed as 5 or 5.5-point favorites with a game total of 39 or 39.5 (depending on the sportsbook) for NFL Week 13 at Gillette Stadium. The Chargers can rarely be trusted, but that's what my NFL pick for this game is doing.
On paper, this shouldn’t be much of a contest. However, NFL fans know that doesn’t mean much when it comes to the Chargers, who are on a three-game losing streak. The Patriots are on a four-game skid themselves and will reportedly be starting Bailey Zappe at quarterback over Mac Jones.
Both teams are on a downward trajectory, but the talent gap on offense between these teams is so vast that taking the Bolts to cover the spread is an easy call for my Patriots vs. Chargers prediction.
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Patriots vs Chargers Pick
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Patriots vs. Chargers
Matchup Analysis
Brandon Staley’s seat is scorching hot and calls for him to be left on the tarmac might reach deafening levels if the Bolts lose to New England. However, for at least one game, I think the Chargers will look exactly like the team everyone expected and handedly cover.
First and foremost, I have trouble seeing a scenario in which the Patriots offense keeps pace with Justin Herbert. Comparing him and whatever quarterback New England trots out is like comparing a Picasso with a preschooler’s scribbles.
In one corner we have Herbert, who ranks in the top 10 in QBR (fourth), completions (fourth), touchdown passes (fifth) and yards (ninth). As a result, the Chargers rank eighth in offensive DVOA and sixth in passing, although they do struggle running (23rd). They also average the eighth-most points per game (24.5).
In the other corner, we have a Patriots offense averaging 13.5 PPG, the second-fewest in the league and 11 fewer than the Chargers. New England ranks 27th in DVOA, including 26th in passing and 28th in rushing. They’ve scored at least 20 points only twice all year and are averaging a league-low 10.0 PPG over the past three weeks.
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Bill Belichick is reportedly pulling the plug on Mac Jones and replacing him with Bailey Zappe. Not only that, but Malik Cunningham appears to be the backup as Jones quarterbacked the scout team during the open portions of practice this week. Nonetheless, the ever-cryptic Belichick is refusing to name a starter.
Meanwhile, Staley arrived in Los Angeles considered a defensive guru, but the Bolts have had some of the NFL's worst defenses under him. That normally gives anyone pause in backing them, but the Patriots are a rare team that likely won't be able to take advantage.
New England’s ineptitude is vital to this bet. The Chargers are 22-7-1 ATS in the Herbert era when the defense gives up fewer than 27 points. However, they’re just 9-22 when they give up more.
The Patriots have scored more than 27 points only once this season. In fact, they've only scored more than 20 on two occasions. If that's not bad enough, they’ve scored seven or fewer points in four games, including two straight.
For all their struggles, the Chargers have beaten up on bottom-dwellers. They’ve covered the two games they’ve been favored by more than five points, beating the Raiders as 6.5-point favorites (24-17) and the Bears as 10-point favorites (30-13). They also blew out the Jets (27-6), shutting down the only offense as inept as the Patriots'.
There are several other trends that point toward a Chargers cover, including New England owning the league’s worst record ATS (2-9). And, according to Evan Abrams, West Coast teams traveling East are 49-33-3 ATS since 2019. Herbert, in particular, thrives in Eastern and Central Standard Time, going 14-8 ATS compared to 12-21-1 when playing in Pacific or Mountain Standard Time.
Patriots vs. Chargers
Betting Picks & Predictions
It might feel uneasy to back the Bolts against the spread. Many have been burnt by them plenty of times in recent years. However, the talent gap between these teams – especially on offense – is too wide to ignore, which is why I plan to put multiple units on them to cover.
That being said, Keenan Allen’s status is a major wild-card factor that might make you wait before placing this bet. Allen is listed as questionable with a quad injury and missed the first two practices of the week before being limited on Friday. This line likely drops if he isn’t able to play, so be sure to pay attention when inactives are announced before pouncing.
If Allen can give it a go, the Chargers shouldn’t just win, they should win big. If they don’t, Staley might as well pack his boxes and join Frank Reich and Josh McDaniels on the unemployment line. I’m willing to take this all the way up to -8.5, assuming Allen plays.
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