Chargers vs Broncos Odds, Pick, Prediction | Week 17 Preview
The latest Chargers vs Broncos odds for NFL Week 17 have the Broncos installed as 3.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 38.5 total points.
An Easton Stick vs Jarrett Stidham showdown is hardly the way Chargers and Broncos fans figured they’d ring out 2023. Denver is technically still in the playoff hunt, but there are a boatload of reasons why the Chargers catching 3.5 points is my preferred Chargers vs Broncos pick, prediction for this AFC West clash.
Chargers vs Broncos Pick, Prediction
Pick: Chargers +3.5 |
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Chargers vs Broncos Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Chargers vs Broncos Preview
The Chargers were an inspired team a week ago under interim head coach Giff Smith, which spoke volumes about how badly the players wanted to move on from Brandon Staley. They went toe-to-toe with the red-hot Bills and looked like a team that won’t give up down the stretch.
The same might not be able to be said about the Broncos. They’re moving on from the ill-fated Russell Wilson trade, benching him in favor of Jarrett Stidham. Will the drastic change provide a spark, or will the drama be an anchor as Denver looks to rebound from an embarrassing loss to the Patriots? And does it even matter considering the state of Denver's offense?
The Broncos were laying between four and five points before Denver announced Stidham would start. However, Action Network's Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, believes there should have been a 2.5- to 3-point drop-off going from Wilson to Stidham. Instead, the spread dropped 0.5 to 1.5 points, providing an edge we can take advantage of by backing the Chargers.
Denver's offense may also be shorthanded in this game. Courtland Sutton has been the Broncos' only true offensive weapon; his status is iffy after suffering a concussion a week ago. He has a 20.7% target share and 10 receiving touchdowns on the year. The rest of the Broncos' wideouts and tight ends have combined for 12. If that's not bad enough, Denver might also be without Marvin Mims Jr. and Jerry Jeudy as both receivers are questionable after sustaining injuries in practice.
Denver’s ground game has also scuffled lately. The three-man rotation of Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin has combined for only four rushing touchdowns this season, which is only one more than Wilson. Overall, Denver’s seven rushing touchdowns are tied for the second fewest in the league.
Chargers vs Broncos Picks | FanDuel
Meanwhile, the Chargers have performed better than expected under Easton Stick, but their biggest edge might be on the ground. Austin Ekeler has been been dismal this year and these might be his final two games with Los Angeles. However, he’s got a good shot for one last vintage performance, going up against a Denver run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA.
Finally, if the Chargers are playing, it’s going to be a close game. That’s just the way it’s been in recent history, and true to form, nine of their games this season have been one-score affairs.
That’s important to note of since backing 'dogs in low-scoring games has been incredibly profitable over the last five years. Underdogs have covered at a 59.2% clip (189-130-9) when the total is below 42, as it is in this case.
That’s hardly the only trend working in the Chargers’ favor. The Broncos are still in the AFC playoff race and as Evan Abrams notes, teams in the hunt with winning percentages between 40% to 69% over the final two weeks and facing a team with a worse win percentage are 64-95-5 ATS over the last 20 years.
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Chargers vs Broncos Picks & Prediction
The Chargers appear to have the edge when you add up Denver’s on-field performance, off-the-field drama and historical trends.
It’s hard to believe in a Stidham-led offense that's devoid of talent. Meanwhile, the Chargers’ defensive players admitted it was easier to play with a simplified scheme after Staley was jettisoned, and the performance against the Bills was a step in the right direction.
Additionally, six of the Chargers' games this year have been decided by a field goal or less. They’re 0-6 in those games, which makes the extra half-point crucial. I’d bet this at +3.5 or better, and I recommend buying the one-half point if the line ticks down to +3.
