Commanders vs Dolphins Odds, Prediction
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Commanders vs. Dolphins odds have Miami installed as 9-9.5-point favorites on the spread with an over/under of 49 or 49.5 for NFL Week 13.
The ball figures to fly all over the field when Washington hosts Miami in a battle of top-five passing offenses. Sam Howell leads all quarterbacks in attempts by a healthy margin, and the stars seem aligned for him to have another busy day on Sunday. As such, Howell's pass attempts prop is my NFL pick for this game.
A pass attempts threshold of 38.5 is a high number to exceed, but there are a litany of reasons why I feel comfortable picking the over as my primary Commanders vs. Dolphins prediction.
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Commanders vs Dolphins Pick
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Matchup Analysis
Sam Howell isn’t just throwing the most passes in the NFL, he’s blowing all the other quarterbacks out of the water.
His 486 attempts are 53 more than Josh Allen, who is the next-closest quarterback (433). To put that into perspective, the 53-pass margin is the same gap between Allen and Baker Mayfield, who has the 10th-most attempts (380).
It’s not surprising then that with all his dropbacks, Howell also leads the league in completions (323) and passing yards (3,339). I considered recommending those bets as my primary pick until I looked at how many attempts he’s had of late.
While Howell’s aired it out a ton all year long, he’s passed the ball a mind-boggling amount over his past six games. He’s thrown it 42, 44 (twice), 45 (twice) and 52 times in those games, averaging 45.3 attempts per game. Overall, Howell’s exceeded 38.5 attempts nine times this year, including eight out of Washington’s last nine games.
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A big reason Howell attempts so many passes is because of the Commanders’ horrific pass defense. They give up the third-most passing yards per game (264.6) and have been particularly bad of late, getting torched for a league-high 300.3 yards over the past three weeks.
Things are so dire for the Commanders that head coach Ron Rivera fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer after the team's Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys. It’s easy to see why he made the decision, but it's hard to see it making much of a difference this week against the Dolphins.
Washington ranks last in pass defense DVOA. Meanwhile, they’re the worst team at guarding the opposition’s No. 1 wideout, allowing a league-high 98.0 yards per game. This week it's Tyreek Hill's turn, and it's crazy to imagine what kind of numbers he might put up in the middle of his historic season.
Washington’s poor pass defense has forced Howell to pass a ton in an attempt to keep up with some of the worst offenses in the league. For instance, he had to throw it 45 times to keep up with a Giants offense averaging the NFL's fewest passing yards per game (151.6). He also threw the exact same amount to keep up with the lowly Patriots.
With that in mind, just imagine how high his attempts might reach Sunday trying to keep pace with facing Miami’s league-leading passing attack (285.3 YPG).
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Commanders vs. Dolphins
Betting Picks & Predictions
The number here is higher than I typically take, but I can’t ignore the trends. Not only has Howell aired it out a ton, (40.5 attempts per game), but once again, he's done so at a mind-boggling rate of late, averaging 45.3 passes over the last six weeks.
I’m also putting a lot of weight on Miami’s league-leading aerial attack going up against Washington’s league-worst pass defense. Add it all up and I think Howell might have his busiest day yet in what’s been an insanely busy year.
While I prefer this bet at the 38.5 number most books are offering, you can get it for less juice at others who list it at 39.5. As always, be sure to shop around before placing it. Once you do, simply sit back and watch Howell’s arm fall off as he airs it out repeatedly.
