We finally get a matchup in primetime that has hype and the potential to not be a blowout with Cowboys vs. Chargers on Monday Night Football.
The Cowboys are looking to redeem themselves after a pitiful showing on Sunday Night Football against the 49ers. The Chargers are looking to get a signature win and prove they are legit.
For my MNF same game parlay script, I expect the Chargers to come out fast off their bye. However, after the early onslaught, the Chargers will hit the brakes and let their opponent back in the game like they always do.
The Parlay (+851 at FanDuel):
- Chargers 1st Half Over 12.5 (-120)
- Alternate Total: Under 55.5 (-215)
- Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions (-146)
- Jake Ferguson Over 3.5 Receptions (-138)
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Chargers 1st Half Over 12.5 (-120)
The Chargers rank sixth in first-half points per game with 17.3. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore had two weeks to prepare for his former team. If that wasn’t enough, San Francisco highlighted Dallas' weak points when it dropped 42 points on them.
The biggest fear for the Chargers is the Dallas pass rush disrupting their offense. However, in Week 3, we saw Minnesota do its best to blitz and create pressure, but Justin Herbert always had the answer. Against 39 blitzes, Herbert was pressured just eight times, per Pro-Football-Reference.
While Dallas’ front is superior to Minnesota’s, Herbert has shown he knows his hot reads. L.A. will also be returning Austin Ekeler — his rushing and receiving ability should provide needed relief for the passing attack.
The combination of extra game-planning time, extensive knowledge of the opposing defense and the return of Ekeler should allow the Chargers to continue their first-half dominance.
Alternate Total: Under 55.5 (-215)
Every week it seems like the Chargers take control of a game, only to hit the brakes and let the opponent catch up. I expect this game to be no different. Hitting the brakes has led L.A. under this mark in three of its four games. The only one going over was against Miami, and I think that is more credit to Miami than Los Angeles.
Cowboys games have all ended under this mark, but that is more because they are blowouts than reliable data. The reason I don’t think Dallas will be able to run the score up here is the reason it let Kellen Moore go.
The Cowboys want to run the ball and play a balanced game. Even against the Cardinals and 49ers, Mike McCarthy verbalized his desire to run even when down. Against the Chargers, who are 18th in rush yards per carry allowed, Dallas will have no reason to abandon the run either.
Between L.A. taking its foot off the pedal and Dallas’s MO, a high alternate under provides good bang for your buck.
Keenan Allen 7+ Receptions (-146)
I mentioned Justin Herbert needing to throw quickly to avoid pressure — someone needs to catch those quick hits. Who better than the man who had 18 catches when they were blitzed like crazy?
Allen specializes in short-area quickness and making contested catches. This is exactly the skillset needed when the Dallas pass rush is blowing by the Chargers' offensive front.
Allen has hit this mark in two of his last three games. The under came against the Raiders when L.A. was up 24-0 before coasting.
The Chargers will lean on their best receiver against the best defense they have played to date.
Jake Ferguson Over 3.5 Receptions (-138)
Jake Ferguson has become one of Dak Prescott’s go-to targets. He is second only to Ceedee Lamb in targets. In the past three games, Ferguson has turned 17 targets into 15 catches. His numbers were low against San Francisco, but you can say that about everyone for Dallas.
The Vikings are the only team that utilizes a tight end similarly to Dallas that the Chargers have played. In that game, T.J. Hockenson was very productive, catching 8-of-11 targets for 78 yards.
If we expect Dallas to be down and throwing, Prescott’s second-favorite target will be sure to have opportunities.
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