| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Patriots vs. Raiders odds have Las Vegas installed as a three-point favorite on the spread against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Those who want to get under the key number on the line can look to FanDuel, where the Raiders are -2.5. The game total sits at 41.5 or 42 depending the book.
Only five games into the year, this matchup already feels like one that will dictate draft order more than playoff position. Josh McDaniels' Raiders are 2-3 and have fallen short of 20 points in all five of their games. The Patriots have been outscored 72-3 in their last two outings. They sit in the basement of the AFC East at 1-4 and have suffered a number of key injuries on defense.
Let's preview this clash between McDaniels and Belichick and make a Patriots vs. Raiders pick.
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Patriots vs. Raiders
Matchup Analysis
The Raiders are two years into the Josh McDaniels era and the pressure already seems to be mounting.
Las Vegas revamped its offensive personnel by switching quarterbacks and flipping the receiving core — the result: an offense that ranks 29th in points and yards this season.
The weekly struggles to score put them in rare air. Only five teams since 2010 have scored fewer than 20 points in five straight games to open the season. The Raiders are the only one of those five to win a game.
The Raiders' offensive struggles are amplified by their inability to protect the ball. Las Vegas is last in percentage of drives that end in a turnover, per Pro-Football-Reference. Their 22% turnover-to-drive rate means they commit a turnover once in every five drives.
Defensively, the Raiders have performed better than expected, ranking 20th in points allowed and 14th in yards allowed. However, their schedule has failed to test them. The only two respectable offenses they have faced are the Bills and Chargers.
The Bills ran them through like a hot knife through butter and the Chargers scored 24 points before half. Fortunately, the Patriots are another cupcake offensively.
New England’s struggles put them at the bottom of the barrel offensively. The Patriots rank 31st in yards per drive and 32nd in points per drive.
What makes the offense worse has been its propensity to create points for opponents. Mac Jones has committed four turnovers that led to opponent scores. That is just one behind the number of touchdowns he has created for the Patriots. A huge step forward for this team would simply be to protect the ball — an alleged strength of Jones.
The negative passing attack has allowed teams to stifle the Pats run game. Per nfelo, the Patriots have the fifth-lowest pass rate over expected. That is a fancy way to say New England likes to run the ball when it shouldn’t. That is despite its ineffectiveness as the Patriots are 29th in yards per attempt.
Buried in the Patriots' struggles has actually been a good defense. The Patriots are fourth in yards per drive allowed and 11th in points per drive allowed. The only problem has been an inability to force turnovers. New England is last in turnovers forced with two for the year. They have none in their last three games.
Patriots vs. Raiders
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Raiders' schedule has been one of their gifts this year. They've faced only one team ranked in the top half, according to PFF’s overall team grade — that team was the Bills, and that was an absolute demolition job by Buffalo.
The Patriots have had the polar opposite scheduling benefit. All five of New England’s opponents have ranked top 12, per PFF’s overall grade.
You can call it catching the falling knife, but this seems like an excellent spot for the Patriots to rebound. New England wants to the run ball and the Raiders' last four opponents have each had over 100 yards rushing.
If the Patriots can move the ball on the ground, that will limit the risk of Mac Jones making game-crushing turnovers. On the flip side, the Patriots are due for turnover regression and who better to face than the most turnover prone offense?
Bill Belichick will take advantage of his former offensive coordinator and quarterback, and at the very least, cover the spread.
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