Giants vs Bills Odds, Picks Against Spread | Sunday Night Football Prediction
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +800 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -1300 |
We have everything bettors need to know about Giants vs. Bills odds and picks for Sunday Night Football, including the spread, total and expert prediction for the final Sunday NFL game of Week 6.
This is the NFL, which means anything can happen, but it's hard to imagine the Giants, quarterbacked by Tyrod Taylor instead of Daniel Jones, have a real chance of pulling off an outright upset. Case in point: the Bills are -1400 on the moneyline at bet365. If you're feeling bold, the best odds for the Giants moneyline can be found at FanDuel (+830). The biggest drama surrounding this dud of a matchup comes down to the spread, which has the Bills as high as 16.5-point favorites at BetMGM. The game total over/under can be found at 43 or 43.5, depending on the book.
Following an unsuccessful trip to London, the Bills look to bounce back at home against the hapless Giants, who have started out 1-4 after a surprise playoff appearance in 2022.
Amazingly, this will mark New York's fourth primetime appearance over the first six weeks. If the previous three are any indication, Giants fans could be headed to bed early once again, as they've lost all three by a combined score of 94-15. The spread of over two touchdowns — largely due to the absence of Jones — would suggest a similar fate against a Buffalo team that has started 3-2 with a pair of one-possession losses and a trio of wins all by at least 28 points.
Can New York keep this within two touchdowns? Let's take a closer look into my Giants vs. Bills pick.
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Giants vs. Bills
Matchup Analysis
Led by quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the Bills feature one of the league's most efficient and explosive offenses.
Coming into the season, they also boasted a top-tier special teams unit and one of the best defenses in the NFL. They were certainly one of, if not the most complete roster in the NFL. While the special teams unit remains intact, the same can't be said for the defense, which has suffered a string of injuries at all three levels. This will force head coach Sean McDermott to work some magic moving forward.
Even before the losses Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones, who was playing at a Pro Bowl level, the run defense was already a bit vulnerable, ranking 24th in EPA per Rush. Now, that unit has even more questions, in addition to some potential problems on the back end without shutdown corner Tre'Davious White, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn Achilles.
The Bills might have to completely lean on their offense the rest of the season and win in shootout fashion to get through the AFC gauntlet.
Bet New York vs. Buffalo at FanDuel
While the Bills had one of the most complete rosters in the NFL coming into the season, the Giants certainly did not.
There were major question marks along the offensive line — none of which have been answered. Not having star left tackle Andrew Thomas since Week 1 certainly hasn't helped matters, but rookie center John Michael Schmitz hasn't panned out so far and right tackle Evan Neal has failed to take any second-year leap whatsoever.
As a result, Daniel Jones has had almost no time to do anything in the pocket in an offense that is in known passing downs way too often. The rushing attack has also been anemic due to the absence of Saquon Barkley.
Meanwhile, the defense hasn't been as bad as the offense, but it still hasn't been a bright spot, ranking 28th DVOA. It's also been put in far too many compromising positions by the offense, which has forced them to play way too many snaps.
This is still a Wink Martindale defense, so you can expect plenty of blitzing and man coverage. New York ranks third in blitz rate at 41.4%, which is actually a higher percentage than it finished with in 2022.
The secondary is also relying on a pair of rookie cornerbacks, who have not flashed as we've seen others do in recent seasons. The defensive line is the strength of this unit, but they simply don't have the talent on the back end to carry the Giants without a capable offense.
Last year, with a capable offense that graded out slightly above league average, Martindale's aggressive scheme worked much better. This year, not so much.
Giants vs. Bills
Betting Picks & Predictions
I'm going to try to catch another falling knife with the Giants, who have burnt bettors every single week and have yet to cover a single game this season.
I'm sure nobody wants to back the Giants, especially in primetime, after what they've seen. However, this is still a professional football team and it's a market where I'm constantly looking to buy low and sell high.
Just to contextualize the historical success of buying low on these horrific teams, chew on these trends that cover the last 20 seasons:
- Teams that have yet to cover in game six or beyond as underdog: 17-8-1 ATS (68%), including 5-1 as double-digit underdogs with 3-of-6 winning outright.
- From Week 5 on, teams who are covering by five PPG or more — like the Dolphins — facing a team with a .250 win pct. or less have gone 65-109-5 ATS (37.4%).
- Teams that are double-digit underdogs for a second-straight game have gone 68-42-3 ATS (61.8%) over the last 20 years, including 46-23-1 (66.7%) ATS after failing to cover the first game.
I just can't get to this number, even with New York having injuries on both sides of the ball and turning to Tyrod Taylor. The Super Bowl champion at least has experience and grades out as one of the better backups in the league. Taylor may also bring a sense of optimism to the huddle, which has seemingly disappeared after the miserable start to this season.
Coming into the season, I would have downgraded the Giants two points without Jones, but I'm not so sure anymore with Jones looking broken in the pocket after being swarmed incessantly on almost every play. Without Andrew Thomas, the offensive line is an absolute mess and essentially playing five guys who all profile more as guards. Taylor brings mobility, experience and potentially a spark to an offense that needs one.
The Giants could also get a potentially healthy Saquon Barkley, although he's listed as questionable along with tight end Darren Waller. If Barkley can go at even close to full strength, it would provide a massive boost to an offense that has no semblance of a running game without him.
Additionally, head coach Brian Daboll has a ton of familiarity with both Buffalo's offense and defense after serving as offensive coordinator under Sean McDermott for four seasons. That familiarity could help him craft a more effective game plan.
Even following a loss, this isn't an ideal situational spot for Buffalo after playing in London. We've seen defenses struggle after playing overseas without a bye in between games. Plus, the Bills have recently lost three of their best defenders to injury. Naturally, we can expect the Bills defense to take a step back, especially in the short term as McDermott adjusts to life without them.
I'm simply buying low on the Giants with a number that I think has some value at over two touchowns.
I could look foolish here, but it certainly won't be the last time.
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