NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorers | Week 14
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited, whether with the spread and total or with player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Here's my look for the NFL Week 14 Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.
Week 14 Anytime Touchdown Previews
| Picks |
|---|
| Texans vs. Jets |
| Bucs vs. Falcons |
| Lions vs. Bears |
| Jaguars vs. Browns |
| Colts vs. Bengals |
| Rams vs. Ravens |
| Panthers vs. Saints |
| Vikings vs. Raiders |
| Seahawks vs. 49ers |
| Broncos vs. Chargers |
| Bills vs. Chiefs |
Texans vs. Jets
I’m hesitant to bank on Texans pass catchers in a tougher matchup against the Jets and with the incoming weather headed for this game. The Jets pass defense is nearly impenetrable and while C.J. Stroud could potentially throw a touchdown, it likely won’t be to a WR since the Jets lead the NFL in TDs allowed to opposing wideouts (three).
If I’m betting a Texans player, though, I’m going with RB Dameon Pierce at +280. He got the lion's share of carries last week against the Broncos despite playing fewer snaps than Devin Singletary, and he got four red-zone carries.
If you’re betting on Jets TD props (what’s wrong with you?) and looking at who could potentially score in a downpour with one of the lowest-scoring teams in the NFL, I’d throw a dart on QB Zach Wilson at +850. RB Breece Hall may not play, and Wilson has nothing really to lose at this stage. Also, the Texans have allowed the most rushing TD to opposing QBs this season (eight).
Verdict: Dameon Pierce +290 (FanDuel) & Zach Wilson +850 (bet365)
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Somehow, this game will likely decide the NFC South Division and books have finally caught on that they need to stop offering Bucs WR Mike Evans TD odds at +150 or more. He’s scored 10 TDs this season and five in the last four games. Now, he’s +140 at best. We'll still back him.
When these teams played in Week 6, it ended 16-13 and both touchdowns in the game were scored in the first quarter. I’d like to think we’ll see more scoring this time around, so I’m going to bet WR Drake London at +250. The Bucs' run defense is still pretty decent this season and has only allowed eight TDs on the ground compared to 14 passing scores. With London coming off a low-output game with only one catch on five targets against the Jets, his value is great for Week 14.
Verdict: Drake London +240 (bet365) & Mike Evans +140 (DraftKings)
Lions vs. Bears
These two teams combined for over 60 points just a few weeks ago, but this total is 41 because of inclement weather.
While there could be the off-chance that QB Justin Fields' throwing accuracy somehow improves in this situation, the only way I’m betting a Bears TD is if he’s running it in. He ran for more than 100 yards on this Lions defense and will likely try to put the team on his back.
For the Lions, it gets tricky because they’re so reliant on the pass and the Bears defense has actually improved significantly against the run this season. My head says to go to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown again at +155, but my gut says to take QB Jared Goff at +700. Go with St. Brown.
Verdict: Justin Fields +210 (FanDuel) & Amon-Ra St. Brown +140 (bet365)
Jaguars vs. Browns
After recommending to bet RB Kareem Hunt in five straight weeks (he scored twice), Hunt has now gone three straight games without a score as Jerome Ford has emerged as the clear RB1. Ford is only +130 and now has QB Joe Flacco throwing the ball, which somehow inspires more confidence in the Browns passing game after its struggles this season.
Even if Trevor Lawrence does play, he’ll likely be severely compromised moving around in the pocket. He'll also face a top-five pass defense. I’m just going to pass on this game.
Verdict: Pass
Colts vs. Bengals
Any game involving Gardner Minshew is going to be a rollercoaster. Turnovers, long passes, tipped balls, blocked punts: Colts games can be super unpredictable.
As a result, I'm taking a different approach and instead of banking on offense, let’s bank on defense and take each team’s defense or special teams to score for one-half unit. If this is going to be another game with poor weather, I’ll count more on chaos than order.
Verdict: Colts D/ST +650 & Bengals D/ST +600
Rams vs. Ravens
Another game that'll likely marred by weather with 20 mph winds expected and heavy rain. When this is the case, just bet the starting running backs and move on. Rams RB Kyren Williams has looked fantastic in his return, and Ravens RB Gus Edwards continues to get the goal-line work despite the emergence of Keaton Mitchell.
If he’s healthy, it might be worth taking a swing on WR Cooper Kupp. You know QB Matt Stafford is going to look for him in short tight windows to convert third downs. And he’s +300 at PointsBet, which is wild considering just over a year ago, he routinely had minus odds in this market.
Verdict: Kyren Williams +150 (bet365) & Gus Edwards +150 (FanDuel); sprinkle Cooper Kupp +300 (PointsBet)
Panthers vs. Saints
After the last couple of weeks, it’s difficult to feel good about banking on a Saints pass catcher with Derek Carr at QB. Even if the Panthers are 20th in DVOA to the pass, the matchups you want are Saints runners like Alvin Kamara or Taysom Hill.
The Panthers have given up the most rushing TDs in NFL and with Carr at QB, the Saints can’t seem to convert on even the easiest of opportunities. Instead, just bank on Hill again and pray the Saints coaching staff continues to see that good things happen when he touches the ball.
If you want a long shot, take a glance at Saints RB2 Jamaal Williams at +500.
Verdict: Taysom Hill +175 (BetMGM) & sprinkle Jamaal Williams +425 (DraftKings)
Vikings vs. Raiders
All the attention will be on WR Justin Jefferson’s return opposite Davante Adams. Meanwhile, I’m just sitting here comfortably with my Jakobi Meyers TD ticket at +300.
Look, I’m not going to try and make the case about why Meyers is better than Adams but in terms of this market, one has been more efficient. Meyers has 6 TDs in 11 games this season and what’s shocking is five of those six have been the first TD of the game. The Vikings also play zone at a top-10 rate in NFL and Meyers has fared better against zone coverage than man.
If I’m betting a Vikings player, it’s still got to be T.J. Hockenson. He’s averaging 10 targets per game with Joshua Dobbs at QB and should see even more separation with Jefferson back in the fold. The Raiders also play zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and that invites the short pass. With the Raiders ranked 27th in DVOA to the short pass, Hockenson could see double-digit targets again. With that kind of volume, I’ll bet his TD odds at +260 every time.
Verdict: Jakobi Meyers +310 (FanDuel) & T.J. Hockenson +260 (Caesars)
Seahawks vs. 49ers
These two teams played each other on Thanksgiving and it wasn’t close. The Niners have run it down every opponent’s throat this year when at full strength and barring injury, it's hard to envision this one playing out any other way. Even sportsbooks agree with RB Christian McCaffrey around -350 to -400 to score, which would be his lowest TD odds of the season.
Every 49ers player's TD odds are steamed beyond value so at this stage, I'd rather sprinkle on FB Kyle Juszcyk at +1000. He’s already got two receiving TDs this season, and Seahawks are bottom-10 in catches and targets to the backfield.
For the Seahawks, I’d be eying Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Both are going to play in the slot a bunch in this game, and speedy slot receivers have been the players to typically score against the 49ers. DeVonta Smith scored last week, while Jordan Addison and Tyler Boyd also got in the end zone on this defense. While the price on DK Metcalf is intriguing at +250, I’ll side with what’s worked against this defensive juggernaut.
Verdict: Tyler Lockett +330 (FanDuel) & Jaxon Smith-Njigba +375 (PointsBet); sprinkle on Kyle Juszcyk +1000 (FanDuel)
Broncos vs. Chargers
This is a ripe matchup for the Broncos pass offense. The Chargers are 27th in DVOA to the pass and 28th in DVOA to opposing WR1s. That leads to an easy conclusion of WR Courtland Sutton, who has nine TDs and has scored in all but three games this season.
For the Chargers, I’m going to keep looking for TE Gerald Everett. He’s scored in three of his last six games. Everett is also no longer on the injury report and the Broncos are last in DVOA to the TE position, having allowed six touchdowns to the position.
Verdict: Courtland Sutton +190 (Caesars) & Gerald Everett +310 (FanDuel)
Bills vs. Chiefs
At first glance, I was kind of shocked by Josh Allen’s odds. He has nine rushing TD this season and scored twice in the Bills' last game against the Eagles, has scored in eight of 12 games this season and leads the team in red-zone carries. I’ll trust my money with Allen to be assertive in the red zone and call his own number, especially since the Chiefs are fifth in DVOA vs the pass but 28th against the run.
For the Chiefs, I’m looking at WR Justin Watson at +450. He’s second on the team in average depth of target (18.3) and has emerged as the team's WR2 behind Rashee Rice. The Bills pass defense is vulnerable and ranks 22nd in DVOA to the pass in general and 29th in DVOA to the deep ball.
While Marques Valdes-Scantling could be an option as well at +550, Watson has shown a better connection with Mahomes in recent showings.
