The Week 10 finale features two teams headed in the opposite direction. Buffalo looked like the class of the AFC for a few weeks, but has since alternated wins and losses while barely squeaking by in those wins. Denver has won two in a row, including a major upset over the Chiefs.
That makes breaking this one down for live betting a bit of a challenge, as both teams' full-season stats don't tell the entire story. Still, we can make some educated guesses as to how this one turns out based on their strengths and weaknesses/
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 10
Bills at Broncos: Under With a Bills Lead, Over Otherwise — LIVE BET MADE, Over 46.5
For Week 10, I'm live at halftime with Nick Giffen on "Bet What Happens Live," where we're breaking down our live bets in more detail.
So far, we're on two player props, including Dalvin Cook to score a TD at +470 and Russell Wilson over 0.5 INTs at +210, plus the over here with the Broncos up 15-8 at halftime. Buffalo should be pass-heavy in the second half, and the first-half should have seen more scoring than it did.
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Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
A large part of the Bills' recent struggle has been their extremely slow starts. They're averaging less than seven points per contest in the first halves of their last five games — and less than five if we don't count the Bucs game, where they put up 17.
That's led to a lot of close games where the total drops from the pregame number around halftime, before the Bills push the pace late and cause the game to go over. However, that's been the opposite of how Buffalo games have typically played over the last few years and the start of 2023.
In their first four games, they averaged over 20 points in the first half, compared to under 15 in the second half. In all of those games they carried a commanding lead into the locker room.
This is all reflected in their pace splits, where they play considerably faster than average when trailing, right around expected when games are close, and well slower when protecting leads. Which lines up nicely with the Broncos, who play faster than average when protecting leads. When looking at their numbers combined, this works out to a fast-paced game if Buffalo trails, and an average-to-slow pace in any other scenario.
All of which also aligns nicely with each team's strengths and weaknesses. Buffalo should be more efficient when attacking through the air, while Denver matches up better on the ground. With Buffalo having a positive Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and Denver's PROE negative, this also means we should see "Buffalo pass Denver Run" as the basis of both team's attack while the game stays close.
It's also relatively likely that the number moves in accordance with how the game script is going. A quick start from the Bills would drive the total up, while a close game or the Bills trailing likely means their poor first-half offense has continued. We're going to base this pick more on the scenario than how the number moves from the 47.5 pregame line, though.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and games that are faster or slower than expected create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
