The NFL season rolls on, and we're almost to the point where every team has played a significant number of snaps with big leads and big deficits. That opens up the number of games we can reasonably target for live bets.
There's some juicy spots in Week 10 if things break the way we need them to. Let's get into it.
NFL Live Betting for Week 10 Sunday Night Football
Jets at Raiders: Unders
The NFL seems intent on finding out just how bad of a game they can get us to watch when it's the only one on. That's the only explanation for giving us Jets-Raiders on Sunday night, which features the 29th and 30th ranked offenses by DVOA. (Or they thought Aaron Rodgers would be playing against his former top wideout, Davante Adams, prior to his Achilles injury.)
Regardless, this game is another reminder that there aren't 32 NFL-caliber quarterbacks walking the earth, as we get Aiden O'Connell against Zach Wilson with a 36.5 total pregame.
Use our FanDuel Promo Code to get the most out of your NFL Week 10 action.
That feels fairly optimistic, as these teams have combined to average less than 34 points per game. To make matters even worse, both teams rank in the top five in yards allowed per pass defensively. They're both slightly more vulnerable against the run — but the rushing offenses rank 26th and 27th in DVOA.
In theory at least, the Jets ground game has the best hope of offensive production here, which means a Raiders lead furthers the "unders no matter what" theory. Still, the best signal would be a quick score or two from either team to drive the total up before pulling the trigger. Second half unders (based on the pregame line) and priemtime game unders (also bet pregame) have been strongly profitable this year, so the dream is getting both trends at an even better number.
Our Earlier NFL Live Bets in Week 10 on Sunday
Falcons at Cardinals: Overs With a Falcons Lead — LIVE BET MADE, OVER 46.5 (-118, FanDuel)
While the scoreboard scenario isn't what we were hoping for, there has been some solid signs in Arizona — primarily the play of Kyler Murray, who's completed 11 of 18 passes and rushed for a touchdown.
In addition, Arthur Smith seems to have at least temporarily paused his policy of keeping the ball away from his best players, with Bijan Robinson seeing nine first half carries. While we're a bit concerned at how bad the passing offense of the Falcons has been, it hasn't stopped them from moving the ball against the Cardinals' porous defense. We'll take over 46.5 on FanDuel at -118 in a game that saw 26 first half points.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
This is another spot where the pace splits and the relative strengths and weaknesses line up nicely — at least with a bit of hopeful projection on the Cardinals side.
Arizona is downright awful on defense. Not "awful against the pass" or "awful against the run," just bad overall. They rank 31st in DVOA against the pass, and 30th against the run, which means the Falcons should be able to move the ball regardless of how they approach this one, or what type of plays the scoreboard pushes them toward.
On the other hand, Atlanta features a top-10 rushing defense, and the 28th-ranked passing defense by DVOA. While Arizona has been better running the ball offensively this season, it's reasonable to project that turns around this week, with Kyler Murray back under center rather than Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune. That's the "hopeful projection" referred to above — Kyler might need a week or two to get up to speed, but will almost certainly be an improvement on the Cardinals' previous signal callers.
Which brings us to the pace. Counting only teams with a reasonable sample size when trailing (i.e. throwing out Baltimore, whose average pace when down by at least eight is 0.0, since they've yet to be in such a scenario) they're the third fastest team in the league. That willingness to pick up the pace should only grow with more competent quarterback play.
Atlatna has just five offensive plays when leading by multiple scores, so it's hard to draw many conclusions there. It might not matter, though, if Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier are breaking long runs against a horrible Cardinals run defense.
Other scenarios would lean to the under here but would be heavily dependent on how Kyler looks during the opening moments of the game. If Arizona somehow scores or keeps it close despite him struggling, that's a good case for the under.
Browns at Ravens: Unders With a Browns Lead — NO BET MADE
We won't spend too much time on this one, since it's fairly unlikely to occur given the Browns' status as 6.5-point underdogs. However, it's certainly worth mentioning on the off chance something surprising happens.
Baltimore plays fast — almost equally fast (relative to the league average) regardless of scenario. That leaves it up to their opponents to dictate the pace, or at least how much the pace varies from what we'd expect from typical teams in those scenarios. Which is where the Browns come in. Discounting the Jets (who've run all of four offensive plays with a lead of eight or more), the Browns are tied for the slowest pace in the NFL when playing with a lead.
Add to that the fact that to get a lead they had to score (obviously) which means the pregame 38.5 total has likely risen, and the fact that these are the top two defenses in the league by DVOA and we have an obvious angle.
From a pace standpoint, the inverse situation is valuable as well — this game should play faster with the Ravens in front. However, it would take a lot to go right before an over looked appealing considering the defenses at play.
Titans at Bucs: Overs With a Titans Lead — LIVE BET MADE
The halftime total has fallen to 29.5 in the Titans-Bucs game. While we still like the over even without a Titans lead, there's a better way to play it. Tampa gets the ball to start the second half, and if they score, it would put both teams on the wrong side of their efficiency splits. If they don't, the total would fall at least slightly. Therefore, we're going to wait for the next drive. If Tampa scores, we'll take the under, and if they don't we'll take the over before the Titans' attempt.
Here's how we previewed this game before kickoff:
This game features two teams with negative Pass Rate Over Expectation figures, playing against defenses that typically force their opposition to the air. Something has to give at some point, but the question is when.
While it's hard to answer definitively, it seems likelier that the Bucs are the first team to adopt a pass-heavy approach in this one, especially if compelled to by the scoreboard. Baker Mayfield has at least 40 passing attempts in two of the last three contests, and Tampa has the more talented passing attack with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
On the other hand, it's a better matchup on the ground for the Titans, as Derrick Henry can still do Derrick Henry things from time to time — and the Bucs rushing defense has taken a step back this season. Additionally, Henry seems to get better as games progress, with defenders becoming progressively less interested in taking further punishment from the massive back
All of which means this game is likely to speed up in the second half regardless of score, but the offensive efficiency gets a boost if the Bucs are throwing and the Titans are running. We're mildly interested in the over in other scenarios (the Titans passing attack is much better with Will Levis under center) as well, especially if the total drops from the pregame 38.5. But a Titans lead would be even better.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
