We have 11 games to choose from in Week 13 (counting Sunday Night Football) as some of the last few bye weeks take place. It's an interesting point in the season, as we have solid sample sizes of almost every team in every scenario — but enough things have changed that some of that data is no longer relevant.
Which is why we need to take a closer look before settling on a live betting plan. Many teams underlying metrics are reflective of their approach — but many are not.
Our NFL Live Bets for Sunday Night Football
Chiefs at Packers: Any Excuse For Unders
This isn't a great live betting spot, as nothing really stands out from either a pace or efficiency standpoint. Kansas City is a bit of a run funnel on defense, but Green Bay is far better when passing, making that a wash.
This is a game where I'd be more than happy to take a pregame under. Kansas City has quietly morphed from an offensive juggernaut to a team led by their defense. They rank 11th in points per game on offense and third in opponent scoring — less than a point per game behind the league leader. They also aren't really blowing teams away, with most of their wins being reasonably close.
We also don't expect Green Bay to turn this one into a shootout. They're a below-average offense statistically, despite all the games against bad NFC north defenses they've played. More importantly, the Chiefs defense is elite, leaving little path to upside here.
The best case scenario is Kansas City scores double-digit points fairly quickly, and drives the total up a few points. If that doesn't happen we'll likely pass on this one, as no other scenario provides much of an edge.
Our NFL Live Bets So Far in Week 13
Dolphins at Commanders: Unders in a Miami Blowout — LIVE BET MADE, Under 57.5 (-125, FanDuel)
Washington's defense has actually help up relatively well, outside of the requisite long touchdown from Tyreek Hill. However, Miami's defense recorded a pick-six, bringing their lead to 17-0. And the total to 57.5 on FanDuel — well above many other books. We'll take the under at -125, as it perfectly fits the pregame scenario we were targeting.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
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The Dolphins are one of the teams that fit what we mentioned in the introduction. Their 70-point blowout win of the Broncos early in the season still has a big statistical impact on some of the key metrics we use for live betting. Things like second half points per game, pace of play when leading, and margin of victory are all heavily impacted by that outlier result.
However, they've played more like a typical team since then, playing considerably less aggressively if and when they get out to a big lead. Just one of their five wins since that week has exceeded 48 total points — which also speaks to their improved defense, particularly since Jalen Ramsey returned from injury. The defensive improvement has a two-fold effect. While the primary benefit is in reducing the opponent's score, it also allows them to take fewer chances on offense, knowing their defense can close the door on a trailing team.
That 48-point mark mentioned is important, because this game has a pregame total of 49.5, a number that should presumably come up should the Dolphins have a big first half (or first quarter, or first 36 minutes, etc.). While we don't want to blindly fire at the under as soon as it cracks the 50-point mark, it's a pretty reasonable target if the Dolphins are also firmly in control.
Of course, the inverse scenario is firmly in play as well. If Miami has some early stalled drives and this one stays close — or Washington is unexpectedly effective on offense — the over is a strong bet. Miami likely attacks fairly aggressively until they're up 20 or so. As a general guideline, if the total falls under the mark where Miami going up 20 would eclipse it, that's when we'd take the over.
Panthers at Bucs: Over in a Bucs Lead, Under Otherwise — LIVE BET MADE, Over 37.5 (-110, DraftKings)
The close game would have pointed to betting on the under earlier, but it was a tough call to make with the total dropping to just 26.5 at that point in the contest. We passed then, but with the Bucs taking a 21-10 lead into the fourth quarter, all we need is one more touchdown here for our over.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
The defensive strengths and weaknesses of these two teams couldn't align much better. Tampa Bay is a major pass funnel, ranking eighth in yards per carry allowed, but 29th in yards per pass allowed. Carolina is the opposite, ranking dead last in DVOA against the run but a reasonable 22nd against the pass.
However, both teams likely need a bit of prodding from the scoreboard to attack this one the way they "should." Tampa has a perfectly neutral Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), while Carolina's PROE is slightly negative.
That means that a Tampa lead would compel both teams to attack in a more efficient manner, with Tampa running more and Carolina throwing more. While all scenarios in this game are likely to play slower than expected, this is the fastest of the bunch.
Other game scripts should see more of both teams attacking their opponent's strengths, particularly if Carolina (somehow) gets out to a lead. Carolina has hilariously yet to run a play when leading by eight or more, but using their numbers with "any lead" still has this game projected to play extremely slowly with the Panthers out in front.
Betting these strictly based on pace-of-play when there's a new head coach in Carolina is obviously risky, but the combination of Tampa's numbers and both team's defensive strengths is enough to overcome that uncertainty.
As always, we're also hoping for some movement from the pregame total of 37 that aligns with our scenario.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application iswe're obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
