Week 14 gives us a double-feature on Monday night. Unfortunately neither look to be great games, with the Dolphins hosting the Titans as 14-point favorites, and Green Bay traveling to New York to take on Tommy DeVito and the Giants.
Still, sometimes these are the best games for live betting, so let's dig into the angles.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 14
Packers at Giants — Time the Under? — LIVE BET MADE, Over 35.5 (-114, FanDuel)
The Giants and Packers have combined for three turnovers (counting one on downs) and a missed field goal all in opposing territory in the first half of their game. It's scary to say, but these teams should have considerably more points on the board than the 17 they do. For that reason, we'll take the over 35.5 line at -114 on FanDuel. If the second half outscores the first, the over will cash, and it certainly should.
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Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
As you might guess from the question mark in the heading, we're considerably less confident in this angle than in the other game. The spread is considerably tighter at just six, and the favored Packers are nowhere near the offensive juggernaut the Dolphins are.
Still, the way these teams set up points us to a similar result. Green Bay's passing offense has been much better in recent weeks, rising to 10th in DVOA thanks to improved play from Jordan Love. Their rushing offense has trended the other direction, with Aaron Jones unable to stay on the field and AJ Dillon averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.
The Giants defense is more or less equally awful against the run and the pass, meaning Green Bay should do most of their scoring through the air. Obviously, we're predicting a more run-heavy attack if they get out to a sizable lead.
On the Giants side, they've managed to fall to dead last in offensive DVOA in both the run and the pass. That's obviously great for the under broadly speaking, but doesn't help us as much from a live standpoint. Unlike the Titans who we think could help drive the total up early, there's not really a specific scenario where New York looks to be able to contribute.
Obviously we're hoping for some movement from the pregame total of 37 — ideally we get lucky and the Packers gift the Giants an easy score with a turnover or something similar. Like the other game timing is important, but we're loosely targeting a total in the 40s and the Packers up multiple scores.
Titans at Dolphins — Time the Under — LIVE BET MADE, Under 37.5 (-114, FanDuel)
.Tyreek Hill is officially questionable to return with an injury, a fact that sportsbooks' algorithms don't seem to be taking into account. The live total is 37.5 despite just 14 first half points, including none by the Dolphins offense. It's apparent how critical Hill is to their offensive scheme, and they've got little to nothing going on offense without him. Even if Hill returns there's no guarantee this one goes over, but it's a massive edge if he doesn't. The best line for the under is -114 at FanDuel.
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Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
This is my favorite style of game to live bet, when we have a team with an explosive passing offense as a big favorite. The scenario is extremely straightforward, as we expect Miami's scoring to be heavily front-loaded before they take their foot off the gas late.
We targeted the Dolphins last week, though an unfortunate garbage time touchdown on fourth down in field goal range pushed the game to the over. Still, that's a bet we're going to win far more often than not — especially this week, where the Titans defense goes a long way towards making this scenario more comfortable.
Last week, Miami carried a 31-7 lead into the locker room and switched to a very run-heavy approach against the Commanders. That led to two De'Von Achane touchdowns against a poor run defense.
This week, they're taking on the Titans, the NFL's best team in DVOA against the run. Tennessee ranks 30th against the pass, so Miami will be able to score nearly at will — as long as they continue to throw the ball. The Titans offensive splits also support this logic, as they're a better team when able to run the ball. Which they won't be able to once they fall too far behind.
The pregame total is a moderate 45.5 but should rise into the 50s assuming this one plays out as expected. The art here will be in "calling the top" and getting the best possible number, which likely comes if and when the Dolphins go up by three scores.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and games that are faster or slower than expected create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
