After a three-game Saturday slate, we're on to NFL Sunday with 11 total games on tap including Sunday Night Football. It's always nice to have options when selecting games to target for live bets, since not every game gives us the same edge. Here's where we're looking in Week 15.
How We're Live Betting Sunday Night Football In Week 15
Jaguars at Ravens: Overs, Unless It's a Blowout — LIVE BET MADE: Over 31.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
There's just ten points on the board, but Sunday Night Football has turned into a near-perfect scenario for betting the over. Shortly before halftime, the live total has dropped roughly nine points to 31.5 There's been two missed field goals, and two turnovers in enemy territory, though, so there probably should've been more scoring in the first half. Trevor Lawrence looks fine, but has been unlucky to come up empty on the scoreboard. The best line is -110 at DraftKings.
Here's how we analyzed this live-betting opportunity pregame:
These teams have combined for over 50 points per game in 2023, but the pregame total is just 40.5. There's a lot of factors that go into that, of course. They've combined to allow just under 40 points, and Trevor Lawrence is playing on a sprained ankle he suffered just two weeks ago.
Still, this is a game where we certainly want to be on the over. The benefit of waiting until the game starts is getting a look at Lawrence, who was mediocre last week following the injury. He led the Jaguars to 27 points against a similarly tough defense in Cleveland, but his lack of mobility led to plenty of mistakes too. He threw a season-high three interceptions while taking four sacks.
Those mistakes — particularly the picks — don't really lower the overall scoring environment from the game, just shift it to the other team. We're already anticipating Baltimore to move the ball well here, with top-10 DVOA ratings both running and throwing the ball.
The one thing that could derail this game is a blowout. What if Lawrence can't get anything going against the best pass rush in the league (by adjusted sack rate)? In that case, Jacksonville isn't scoring, and Baltimore can sit on its lead.
Hopefully we're able to catch a lower total than the pregame line in a close game. However — like the Texans game earlier — we'd be more than fine with sacrificing a few points off the number in order to get a good luck at Lawrence before making the bet.
Our NFL Live Bets from Earlier
Texans at Titans: Over With a Titans Lead, Maybe — LIVE BET MADE: Over 33.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
We wouldn't say Case Keenum has been good for the Texans, but he's completed 11 of 17 passes, with Houston picking up 153 total yards in the first half despite scoring just three points. That's a near ideal scenario to take the over given the Titans' 13-3 lead. The best line is over 33.5 (-105) at DraftKings.
Here's how we analyzed this live-betting opportunity pregame:
This is a tremendous game to bet live rather than pregame, thanks to the ability to gather information before picking a side (or total, as it were).
The Texans are a top-six passing offense by DVOA coming into Week 15, taking on a pass-funnel Titans team that's been gashed through the air. Houston is also without its starting quarterback and top-two wide receivers.
Will the Texans still be able to find success in a soft matchup for the passing game? That's a tough question to answer before the game. Once we get a quarter or two of data, it might be a bit easier.
On the other side of the ball, the Titans are much more successful when they're able to run the ball. The DVOA splits don't exactly support that over the course of the season — but it's now December. Derrick Henry has six rushing touchdowns over the past three weeks, a period where the Titans are averaging nearly 25 points per game.
Obviously, a Titans lead points to more rushing for Tennessee and more passing for Houston, which should produce more points here. The trick is determining whether we can trust the Houston passing attack to move the ball in its diminished state.
The other problem is Case Keenum and the Texans looking good diminishes the chances of a Titans lead, and the chances of the total dropping, so there's a lot of moving parts. We'd be comfortable getting a slightly worse number than the pregame 38 if Houston is playing well offensively, but the dream scenario is Houston moving the ball but fluke outcomes keeping points off the board.
49ers at Cardinals: Unders When San Francisco Takes Over — LIVE BET MADE: Under 61.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
San Francisco goes up 15 points on their first drive following halftime, and assuming they stop the Cardinals here they should be able to take their foot off the gas and shorten the game down the stretch. That fits our pre-game scenario, so we'll take under 61.5 at -104 on FanDuel
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
My favorite type of game to live bet is the expected blowout. With a handful of exceptions, most teams attack aggressively until they build up to a comfortable lead, then slow things down from there while trying to go home healthy.
Fortunately, San Francisco is one of the teams that follows that typical approach. The Niners are the second-slowest team when playing with a multi-score lead, and the slowest second-half team in all of football. Both of those are mostly reflections of the size and frequency of their late leads — but as 12-point favorites we can expect that to continue this week.
The drawback to this type of approach is when the trailing team can mount enough offense in comeback mode to keep the points flowing. That's a bigger concern with explosive offenses tied to mediocre or bad defenses — think the Eagles this season.
We don't have to worry about that here. The 49ers rank top-five in overall DVOA, and are better against the pass than the run. That makes it even harder for Arizona to score when playing from behind.
Obviously the challenge here is in the timing. At what point does Kyle Shanahan feel like the lead is safe? Then we need to weigh that against the movement to the pregame total of around 48.
Our very loose target will be a three-score lead at or before halftime, and two scores in the fourth quarter — but keep an eye on this article where we'll update in real time when we make the pick.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
