We're approaching the point in the season where we can start to get a handle on what's changed since last year in terms of how teams approach their play calling. While it's not quite time to abandon the 2022 data, most teams have at least some sample size in all of the various game situations we're targeting.
That should help us zero in on the type of bets we want to make for the slate. There are some spots that jump out at us in Week 4; here's where we're looking.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 3
Jets at Chiefs: Try to Time The Under, Unless... -- LIVE BET MADE, Over 52.5 (+100, DraftKings)
With the game closer than expected, we're going to swerve and take the over. The Jets have moved the ball surprisingly well, with 183 net yards and promising drives that ended in field goal attempts -- with one bouncing off the uprights. They have a shot to make this even closer with the first possession in the second half, since they get the ball coming out of the break.
Here's how we broke down this live betting scenario before kickoff:
When the NFL scheduling department made this game, it looked like a lot of fun. Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes in primetime, as two of the AFC's best teams duke it out.
Now though, it's far less promising. The Jets have been awful with Zach Wilson outside of their miraculous Week 1 overtime win, and the Chiefs are largely living up to expectations. That's how we've arrived at the Chiefs favored by nine, in what we're expecting to be a largely non-competitive game.
In games like this the question is so much "what" to bet as "when" to bet, since the favored team is likely to put on the brakes at some point. Timing is a challenge, though, as we saw on Thursday. We took under 52.5 in a game that finished at 54, but 54.5s had been available a bit before we made that bet.
Catching that falling knife is far more art than science, but we'll be locked in trying to fins the best opportunity. Be sure to keep it here and follow me in the award-winning Action Network App to get alerted if and when we play this one.
The Week 4 Sunday Live Bets for 1 p.m. Games
Panthers at Vikings: Overs With a Vikings Lead -- LIVE BET MADE, Over 45.5 (+100, DraftKings)
With the Vikings turning this game around suddenly and going up by eight points, we'll jump on this over that fits our pregame scenario. Carolina is having some success on offense, and we only need two touchdowns to win this live bet.
Here's how we broke down this live betting scenario before kickoff:
It gets even better with a Vikings lead, though. They've played faster than average when up by at least a touchdown this season, while the Panthers play quicker than average when trailing. This game also projects to play faster in the second half, though that's mainly a function of two winless teams who've been forced to play from behind late in games this year.
Minnesota has tried to commit to the run to an extent this season but has had a hard time getting anything going. That could easily change against the Panthers, who rank dead last in the NFL in DVOA. While we're less optimistic about the Panthers ability to throw the ball with Bryce Young back under center, the Vikings are a bit worse against the pass than the run.
With the Vikings as moderate favorites here, this is the likeliest outcome as well as the biggest projectable edge. We'll be targeting a Vikings lead of eight or more with the Panthers having possession, or a lead somewhere in the 3-7 range when the Vikings have the rock. As always, we'll also be looking for a drop on the pregame total of 46.5
On the flip side of things, this game should skew to the under if Carolina controls things. The Panthers feature a solid pass defense which could limit the Vikings ability to make a comeback, and the pace is somewhat slow as well. We'd be much pickier on the number we get in that scenario though, as it's a thin edge. We also aren't seeing an edge in either direction in a close game, so we'll need somebody to pull away before we bet.
NFL Live Betting Afternoon Slate
Chargers at Raiders: Unders With a Chargers Lead -- LIVE BET MADE, Under 58.5 (-130, DraftKings)
24-7 feels like a good time for the Chargers to begin slowing things down, and the Raiders aren't able to get anything going with a rookie quarterback and Davante Adams out with an injury. We'll take under 58.5 at -130 on DraftKings with other books moving to 57.5.
Here's how we broke down this live betting scenario before kickoff:
With Jimmy Garoppolo officially inactive for Week 4, rookie Aiden O'Connell is stepping in under center for the Raiders. That's obviously going to be the biggest factor in how we approach this game, and it opens up some interesting angles.
The Chargers are happy to take the air out of the ball when playing from in front, taking more than four seconds longer between plays than in close games (league average this season is about 1.5 seconds.) On the other side, the Raiders played at the second slowest pace when trailing this season (49 offensive snaps) and were third-slowest last year.
More importantly, there's a correlation between the Chargers having a lead and O'Connell being ineffective at quarterback. There's some optimism about him being potentially solid as a fill-in, but it's very uncertain at the moment. That makes this an excellent live betting spot, since it will be a lot easier to bet this game after we've got a look at O'Connell in regular season action.
The opposite angle is firmly in play as well. The Raiders jumping out to a lead correlates to O'Connell playing well. Additionally, the Chargers have struggled to run the ball without Austin Ekeler, so forcing them to skew more pass-heavy helps the offensive outlook. This could also be a good spot for a Josh Jacobs resurgance, against a Chargers defense ranked 27th against the run.
This total has (perhaps surprisingly) held firm around 48 even with the quarterback news. We'll be looking for a better number if playing the under, but would be somewhat comfortable taking the over even if it ticks up a bit while fitting our scenario.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
