We went 2-0 on Sunday, so let's finish the week out strong with some Monday Night Football live betting. The 1-3 Raiders host the 2-2 Packers in Las Vegas, with the Raiders as slight favorites.
We have potential options for bets to make regardless of the game script here, as there's solid data in any scenario to support betting angles.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 5
Packers vs. Raiders: Over With a Raiders Lead, and Vice-Versa — LIVE BET MADE, Over 34.5 (DraftKings)
After a missed field goal at the end of the second quarter, we're going to lock in over 34.5 for the live total at DraftKings. The rest of the market is a bit higher, and this fits with our pregame live betting scenario.
For the rest of our potential live bets, tune in to Bet What Happens Live, where I'm breaking down the game live with Dr. Nick as we reveal our brand new live player prop tool in the Action Network app:
Here's how we broke down this game from a live betting scenario before kickoff:
These teams are a bit of a paradox, as they both come in with slightly positive pass rate over expectation (PROE) numbers while playing slower than average in 2023. We'd expect that from teams with positive game scripts, but with a combined record of 3-5, that doesn't explain much here.
This game projects as considerably faster in the second half, though the bulk of that is due to both teams spending more time trailing then leading late in games. Both teams have played well slower than average in 2023, however, which hints to how they want to play when the game script allows it.
Where they differ is how they've responded to varying game scripts. Green Bay has played slower with a lead than Las Vegas, but faster when trailing. That means a game with the Raiders in front should play faster overall, and the inverse is true. There are some mild sample-size concerns here, but we prefer to utilize 2023 data given the significant changes at quarterback to both teams from last season.
That aligns nicely with each team's defensive strengths, as well. The Packers would face more run plays while trailing, and they rank 25th in DVOA against the run but 18th against the pass. On the other hand, the Raiders rank 28th against the pass but 19th against the run, and they'd see more pass plays while projecting a lead.
Our preference is to lean to the over in or around half time, since we know both teams want to play slow early, but one of them will likely have to get more aggressive down the stretch. However, these splits are all fairly close, so we'll be fairly picky about getting the best of the number relative to the pregame line.
Additionally, I'll be joining my colleague Nick Giffen at the two-minute warning on Bet What Happens Live with Dr. Nick, where we'll talk through all of the angles in greater detail.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
