We're approaching the point in the season where we can start to get a handle on what's changed since last year in terms of how teams approach their play calling. While it's not quite time to abandon the 2022 data, most teams have at least some sample size in all of the various game situations we're targeting.
That should help us zero in on the type of bets we want to make for the slate. There are some spots that jump out at us in Week 5; here's where we're looking.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 5
Cowboys at 49ers: Play it by Ear
This is a very tricky spot to live bet. Both teams are perfectly balanced by DVOA on offense — San Francisco ranks 2nd in both rushing and passing DVOA, while Dallas is 17th in both categories. Similarly, both teams are better at defending the pass. That sets up nicely for the rushing attacks of both teams, but a big lead either way would mean one team running more and one team throwing more.
Things aren't much better when looking at the pace. San Francisco is about two seconds slower than average in all situations, while the Cowboys are within a second of league average in every scenario.
This is pretty clearly a contest we'd skip were it not an island game. There's not even a clear "most likely" game flow, as the 49ers are just 3.5-point favorites. Therefore, we'll need to "read-and-react" if we want to live bet this one.
That means keeping an eye on things like promising plays called back by penalties, redzone drives that end in field goals, or fluky scores on broken plays. Essentially, we're trying to find a situation where the numbers on the scoreboard don't accurately reflect the offensive success of one or both teams. That should lead to the total deviating substantially from the pregame number of 45, in which case we'd pounce on a better number.
The Week 5 Sunday Live Bets We've Already Made
Panthers at Lions: Overs With a Lions Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 58.5 (FanDuel)
We've got 38 points in the first half but need just 21 more to cash the over 58.5. Carolina has moved the ball better than the score would indicate, with 174 yards of total offense to the Lions 214 yards. If the three turnovers get cleaned up in the second half they should push the scoring — while continuing to get gashed by the Lions rushing attack.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
This one lines up nicely in terms of both pace splits and how the teams match up. Detroit has played at a fairly consistent pace in 2023, not altering as much as we'd expect. The gap between their pace when leading and trailing is just 2.7 seconds, compared to a league average of around five seconds.
On the Panthers side, they've played at the third-fastest pace when trailing by multiple scores, at least when counting only teams with double-digit offensive snaps in those scenarios. All in all, that gives us a pace-of-play more than three seconds faster than we'd expect in this one with a Lions lead.
The other component is the matchup on both sides of the ball. Carolina has the league's worst rushing defense by DVOA, and 29th by yards per carry allowed. With Detroit down Amon-Ra St. Brown, they would love to be more run-heavy anyway, and should have tons of success on the ground. Detroit also has an offensive line close to full strength this week, which has been an issue in the past.
On the other side of the ball, Carolina is slightly better in the passing game by DVOA, while attacking the slightly weaker part of the Lions defense. Detroit is also somewhat banged up in the secondary, with rookie safety/slot corner Brian Branch ruled out for this game among other injuries. The loss of Branch could be a big factor against a Panthers team that likes to target their slot receiver, Adam Thielen.
With Detroit favored by double digits, this is by far the likeliest scenario. We're going to be fairly picky with the number we get, looking for an improvement on the pregame number of 43.5. We also have some light interest in the inverse scenario — unders in a game that stays close or the Panthers lead — but would probably only pull the trigger following some fluky Carolina production. The pace sets up nicely for unders in a game Carolina plays better than expected, but the tougher offensive matchups make it a harder sell.
NFL Live Betting for Week 5 Afternoon Slate
Bengals at Cardinals: Unders With a Bengals Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Under 59.5 (DraftKings)
The Cardinals had a nice run in the first half, but I don't expect their offense to keep it up. With The Bengals going up 10 on the first drive of the second half, the total has risen to 59.5 on DraftKings. We'll take the under at -120, but be sure to get the 59.5 rather than 58.5 lines elsewhere, as that gives us a three touchdown window.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenario for this game before kickoff:
Cincinnati will be without Tee Higgins, and Joe Burrow is nursing a calf injury. They'll be looking for any excuse to slow this game down and switch to a run-heavy approach to hide their banged-up passing attack. That's a bit more speculative than we like to get here, but there's not much hard data behind the Bengals splits — they've only called three offensive plays while leading by eight or more this season.
If they're able to get to an early lead, we're anticipating them to eat the clock as much as possible — with the Cardinals a somewhat-willing contributor to the cause. Arizona is a bottom-ten team in pace when trailing by multiple scores, and they have a bottom-three pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league. That means they won't switch to as aggressive of an approach as we'd expect from the trailing team.
The matchups also work somewhat in this direction, with the Cardinals tougher against the run and the Bengals harder to throw on defensively. It's not a major split like in the Lions-Panthers game, but it's still a helpful lean in that direction.
Like in the early game, we're cautiously interested in the opposite scenario, but would need a much stronger setup before pulling the trigger there. The pregame total of 44.5 would need to move significantly down before we take an over, while the under doesn't require us to be as picky.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
