We've had some bad "island" games in recent weeks, but the Monday Night Football matchup in Week 6 looks like a good one. The Chargers have gotten it together after an 0-2 start to the season, and the Cowboys are looking to remain within a game of the division-leading Eagles with a win Monday Night.
It should be a competitive game, with the Chargers 1.5-point home underdogs. We're expecting points with a total of 50.5, but when those points come will be the key to live betting this one.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 6
Cowboys at Chargers: Overs with a Chargers Lead, Otherwise Play it by Ear — LIVE BET MADE, Under 36.5 (-105, Caesars)
The Cowboys defense is living up to their reputation in this one, and their offense is playing as methodically as expected. It's hard to see three more touchdowns in the last quarter and a half, after the Chargers just came away with nothing after a drive that lasted more than 7 minutes. We'll take under 36.5 at -105 on Caesars.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenarios for this one before kickoff:
These teams take a diametrically opposed approach to offensive play calling. The Chargers play at the second-fastest pace in the league (third in situation-neutral) with a pass rate over expectation (PROE) that ranks seventh. On the other hand, Dallas ranks 28th in overall pace, and 23rd in PROE.
Of course, the Chargers injury situation has skewed their numbers a bit. They lost star running back Austin Ekeler in Week 1, but he's set to return tonight. During his absence, number-two wideout Mike Williams was lost for the year. It's safe to assume a slightly more run-heavy (and thus, slower) approach when swapping a top receiver for your star running back, as they've effectively done.
The Cowboys don't give us much to work with here from a pace standpoint, as they've played about a second slower than average regardless of game script this season. With triple-digit offensive plays called in every scenario, we can feel pretty secure in that projection.
The Chargers have yet to run an offensive play while trailing by eight or more — both of their losses were within three points. That doesn't give us much to work with, though their 2022 pace in those situations was roughly league average. However, when leading by multiple scores, they've ran at the fastest pace of any team with five or more plays in that situation.
That could regress slightly with Ekeler back, but should still be broadly true. That gives us the only clear scenario here — overs with a Chargers lead. As always, we're hoping for a situation where the total has come down significantly from the 50 or so pregame line. We're going to be very picky about this one in terms of the line we take, but we've got some wiggle room on the game script since a close game also projects to be slightly faster than average.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
