We went 2-2 on Sunday, so Monday Night Football will decide whether we turn a profit or run a loss in Week 7. The banged-up San Francisco 49ers travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings, with the 49ers' injury situation making this one a bit more competitive than we'd expect if they were at full strength.
San Francisco is favored by 6.5 to 7 points on the road, with a fairly low total of 43. That's mostly a reflection of both teams' health, as they've combined to average over 50 points per game this season — but most of the injuries are on the offensive side.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 7
49ers at Vikings: Overs With a Vikings Lead, Unders With a 49ers Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 45.5 (-114, FanDuel)
The Vikings take a nine point lead into the half, with the 49ers to get the ball first coming out of the locker room. That's about as perfect of an "over" scenario as we could draw up — and McCaffrey looks fine. FanDuel is the last remaining book at 45.5, so we'll take the over there at -114.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
There's almost nothing to like here from a pace-based standpoint. The Vikings are a fast-paced offense under all scenarios, with a slightly above average pace in every game script. That's no surprise, considering they entered Week 7 with the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the NFL.
On the other hand, San Francisco cancels that out by playing slower than average in all scenarios, with the combined impact of these two teams leading to a slightly slower than average pace regardless of the scoreboard.
However, there's a bit more to like when analyzing the defensive strengths and weaknesses of both teams. Cleveland laid out the blueprint for beating — or at least competing with — San Francisco last week. They utilized a 50/50 split between rushing plays and passing plays, solidly below their average rate. That turned into a solid 160 rushing yards on the day, with their only touchdown coming on the ground.
With the 49ers ranking 22nd in DVOA against the run but 2nd against the pass, the path to victory and offensive success for Minnesota lies in keeping the ball on the ground. That's obviously easier to do if the game is close or when playing from in front.
Similarly, the way to beat the Vikings is through the air. Their splits aren't as extreme, but they rank 21st in DVOA against the pass and 14th against the run. Especially with 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey likely to be somewhat limited, the 49ers should be more efficient in the passing game this week.
The other benefit to live-betting here is getting a look at both teams' game plans heading into the contest. The theoretical easiest route to success for both units runs counter to their normal method of attack offensively. On top of that, we should hopefully have a better feel on McCaffrey's effectiveness after a quarter or two.
As always, we'll be waiting for situations where the total moves significantly from the pregame 43 in the direction that our scenario indicates. We'd feel slightly better taking the under here, but will let the game dictate our approach.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
