With six teams on bye, it's a smallish slate in Week 7. However, it looks to be one of the best slates in a while from a live betting perspective. There's some low-total games with a clear path to more scoring, and some projected shootouts that could easily turn into slogs.
Those games are ideal for betting live, as we can glean just enough information about how the game is going to go before making a decision. We'll be keeping an eye on multiple games in the early slate, one in the afternoon, and of course Sunday Night Football between the Dolphins and Eagles.
NFL Live Betting for Week 7 Sunday Night Football
Dolphins at Eagles: Overs with a Dolphins Lead, Unders With an Eagles Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 53.5 (-115, DraftKings)
It was a rocky start for the Dolphins offense, but this team has too much talent – and speed – to be held down for long. They cut the deficit to seven shortly before halftime, and they also get the ball to start the second half. We’re taking this over early just in case the Eagles get aggressive with the final 39 seconds of the half, with the best line on the over 53.5 at -115 on DraftKings.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
Taking the under at any point in a Dolphins game this season is scary, but there's an angle at play here. Miami has surprisingly played far slower than the average team when trailing this season, while checking in around average in close games and faster than average with a lead.
What that means is that Miami is running their offense effectively the same no matter what numbers are on the scoreboard — as we've seen when they've ran up the score multiple times this season. On the other hand, the Eagles follow a more typical split, playing slower with a lead and faster from behind.
That also aligns nicely with the matchups, as Philadelphia has the league's top-rated rushing defense while merely average against the pass. Miami is far less likely to break multiple long touchdowns when playing from the front here, and more likely to have no problem chasing points should they need to.
On the other side, Miami's defense is fairly balanced, but Philadelphia is somewhat more effective running the ball — so they have a solid shot at continuing to pile up points even while trying to eat the clock.
Obviously, overs are the more comfortable choice here given the offenses at play, so we'll be rooting for the Dolphins to go up early with the total dipping from the pregame 52.5. If it shakes out the other way we'll be more picky about the number we get, ideally waiting until it rises to or above 60 or so.
The Live Bets We've Made in Week 7
Packers at Broncos: Unders In a Close Game, Overs If Green Bay Trails — LIVE BET MADE, Over 29.5 (-115, Caesars and FanDuel)
Caesars and FanDuel are outliers with their 29.5 line at halftime of Packers-Broncos, a crucial number since it means three touchdowns cashes the over. Green Bay has had more success offensively than their scoreless first half implies, and should have even more in the second against the league's worst defense. We'll take over 29.5 at-115.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
This game has the second-highest total on the slate, despite featuring two teams with negative PROE numbers on the season. Both teams want to run the ball, but poor defense and inefficient play has forced them to take to the air.
However, if this one stays close, we could see both teams take the air out of the ball and try to win a slow-paced game in the closing minutes. Denver should have more success running the ball based on the Packers defense, but that keeps their horrible defense off the field and the clock moving.
While we expect Green Bay to be able to score through the air or on the ground, throwing the ball generally gets it done much quicker, and leaves time for more total offense across the game.
From a pace standpoint, these teams combine to play at least a second faster than average with either team up multiple scores, but more than two seconds slower should it remain close.
With a pregame total of 45, the hope is some fluky scoring happens early, and drives the total up in the 50s before both teams decide to throttle it down. While there's an argument to taking overs if Denver trails as well, it's harder to trust their offense to play catch up, or their defense to get off the field. Therefore, we're looking for overs if the total drops thanks to some stalled Packers drives early.
Bills at Patriots: Under With a Bills Lead, Over Otherwise — LIVE BET MADE, Over 43.5 (-110, Caesars)
The Patriots went up by 10 midway through the second quarter with Buffalo struggling offensively. It's hard to see Josh Allen playing this poorly all game, and this line sup nicely with our scenario pregame. We'll take over 43.5 at -110 on Caesars.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
The Bills are expected to roll into New England and thrash the Patriots, as 7.5-point favorites in a game with a total of just 41. That makes the likeliest scenario for this game the Bills leading, and probably by multiple scores at various points.
For the first time in Josh Allen's tenure, Buffalo has been playing at a far more measured pace this season. They're content to keep the ball on the ground when playing from in front, with a pass rate over expectation (PROE) that ranks ninth in the league. While that's still high, it's a vast departure from the Bills teams of the past few years.
The Bills also play at below the league-average in pace when leading, while roughly average or above in all other scenarios. New England also has their lowest pace ranking when trailing by multiple scores.
However, it's more the matchup that's driving this angle. The Patriots have a top-ten defense against the run, but rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass. Buffalo ranks third against the pass, while allowing the second highest yards per carry against the run in 2023.
Thus, a scenario where the Bills are running more and the Patriots are throwing more should suppress scoring, while the inverse is also true. If and when the Bills go up multiple scores, the scoring could grind to a halt in this one. On the other hand, if this stays close later than expected, it could be a fun second half.
We'll be looking for scenarios where the line has moved in our favor and the scenario is at least somewhat "sticky." That could come at any point, so don't be afraid to pull the trigger if the Bills score multiple times early and drive the number up, or an early Pats touchdown and some stalled drives brings it down.
Browns at Colts: Unders With the Browns Leading, Overs Otherwise — LIVE BET MADE, Under 66.5 (-110, DraftKings)
We don't love the number — which is within three touchdowns of the current score, but Cleveland has a lead and the ball, and there's no chance these teams continue to put up points like they did to start the contest. Both teams using backup quarterbacks also helps the cause here. The best line is under 66.5 -110 on DraftKings.
Unlike the previous game where we relied on the matchup to dictate our angle, this one is all about how both teams' pace lines up.
The Colts play more than three seconds faster than the average team when games are close or they're trailing, but that number drops to just over a second when they're in control of games. On the other side, Cleveland is the slowest team in the league when protecting a lead — which makes sense with their stout defense — but around average or slightly faster in other scenarios.
The Browns are slight favorites here, so them controlling the game is the likeliest scenario, especially with Deshaun Watson back in action. However, the spread is close enough that any game flow is within the realm of possibilities.
With a pregame total of 39.5, it wouldn't take much early scoring from the Browns to drive the total up, so we could pull the trigger early if they go up multiple scores. On the other hand, we'll be very picky on the overs. We'd need some fluky non-scores, as well as the scenario and total to all point in the same direction.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
