It's a rare week with no teams on bye, no Saturday games, no Europe games, and just one Monday Night Football game. That means 13 games to choose from between the two main Sunday slates, plus of course Chargers-Bears on Sunday Night football.
That's obviously more surface area than we can reasonably cover, but it gives us plenty of opportunities to be picky about which games we target. We have spots to watch in every window on Sunday.
NFL Live Betting for Week 8 Sunday Night Football
Bears at Chargers: Overs with a Chargers Lead — LIVE BET MADE, OVER 51.5 (-125, FanDuel)
The Chargers' passing attack is operating as predicted, with three passing touchdowns from Justin Herbert in the first half. That's part of 31 total first half points, with the Bears contributing seven.
While we don't love betting a much higher number than pregame at 51.5, it fits our scenario. Chicago has over 150 yards of total offense on their own, and probably should have more points than are on the board as well. The best line is on FanDuel at -125, and we'd pass on the 52.5 lines found elsewhere. Those are on the wrong side of the key number of 21 additional points.
Here's how we previewed this game before kickoff:
This isn't a great game from a live betting standpoint — or at all, truthfully — but there is one clear angle. That's to bank on the Chargers continuing to run up the score from the front, a likely scenario with them favored by 9.5.
They're a top-ten team in PROE, and the fastest team in the league when up multiple scores. To be fair that's a relatively small sample size, but logically they should try to run up the score given their continued failures late in close games.
They should have no problem throwing the ball against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass. On the Chicago side, they have at least a chance to contribute to the scoring as well. The Chargers rank 25th in points allowed, and 28th in DVOA against the pass (while playing somewhat better against the run.) It's a bit of a catch-22 because the Bears are better offensively on the ground, but with passing being more efficient overall, I prefer the Bears outlook once they're forced to air it out.
The pregame line is 45.5, and hopefully we can catch the books bumping this number down if the Chargers get off to a big lead. As always, bonus points if some fluky plays keep the score lower than it should be.
From a pace standpoint, everything else is very close to neutral, so we'll have to play other scenarios by ear. Unless there's a glaring misprice, the best bet in other situations might just be to keep our money in our pockets, though. No bet is better than a bad bet.
The Live Bets We've Already Made in Week 8
Eagles at Commanders: Unders, Assuming Philadelphia Controls the Game — LIVE BET MADE, Over 49.5 (-118, FanDuel)
The Commanders have made this one into a game, with a 61-yard field goal as time expires pushing the score to 17-10 for Washington. We expect that to continue with the Eagles needing to turn things up offensively in the second half. They’ve moved the ball well (182 net yards) so should be able to capitalize and keep this shootout going into the second half. The best line on the over is 49.5 -118 at FanDuel.
Here's how we previewed this game before kickoff:
Our favorite live betting situation last year was Eagles unders. They were absolutely dominant for the early part of the season, with most of their games following a similar script.
That would be Philadelphia playing aggressive through the first half or so, establishing a big lead, then keeping the opponent's offense off the field with a slow-paced second half. That hasn't happened to the same extent this year, with a few more closer games and a more challenging schedule overall. However, there's a strong chance we see that scenario play out in Week 8, with the Eagles favored by seven.
The pace numbers point to a slower game if and when they get to a big lead. They play about 1.5 seconds slower than the average team while up multiple scores, while the Commanders are a hair slower than average while trailing.
The matchup aligns well here, too. Washington's pass offense ranks 30th in DVOA, and it's a horrible matchup for the offensive line. They're already on pace for all-time record sin terms of sacks allowed, and are facing one of the league's best pass rushes in the Eagles. On the other side of the ball, the Commanders have been much better at stopping the run than the pass — so the Eagles scoring should trend down once they start to keep the ball on the ground.
The pregame total is 43.5, but should trend up a bit if Philadelphia is running up the score early. While we're looking to play this one sometime around halftime, it's important to target the best number, which could come a bit earlier if it gets out of hand fast. Should this scenario not come to fruition, it would make sense to be on the over — though we'll be much pickier there.
Saints at Colts: Overs in a Close Game — LIVE BET MADE, Over 62.5 (-106, FanDuel)
The first half had 41 points, but we need “just” 22 more in the second half to cash the over in Saints-Colts. This one has been as fast-paced as anticipated, and it’s a one-point game with no sign of slowing down anytime soon. We’ll take the over at 62.5 (-106) on FanDuel.
Here's how we previewed this game before kickoff:
Despite both teams having negative pass rates over expectation (PROE), the Colts and Saints rank first and sixth in overall pace respectively. That tells us they want to play fast, but are happy to pivot to a run-heavy approach if the scoreboard allows it. These teams average to play about four seconds faster than league average while the game remains close, but much closer to average if either team is in control.
Of course, a close game is basically the default state that's baked into the pregame total of 43.5. Therefore, the game staying close — and the total staying around that number — isn't enough in and of itself to give us an edge.
Instead, we'll be looking for situations where there should have been more points than actually showed up, like redzone turnovers, missed field goals, and the like. With New Orleans being the slower team with a lead, a slight Colts lead also helps the cause more than the other way around.
Really though, the biggest factor here is what happens to the live line. If we can get a considerable discount on the number with neither team running away with things, we'll be happy to seize the opportunity.
Browns at Seahawks: Unders With the Browns Leading, Overs Otherwise — LIVE BET MADE, Over 50.5 (-120, DraftKings)
The total has dipped back down to 50.5 after the Seahawks first drive of the half stalled out. While we felt better about it with either team controlling the game, close games still skew to the over from a pace standpoint. After having 31 first half points, 20 more the rest of the way is a fairly reasonable ask, and both teams have moved the ball well all game long. The best line is -120 on DraftKings.
Here's how we previewed this game before kickoff:
The PJ-Walker led Browns somehow found themselves in Week 7s highest scoring game, a 77-point affair with the Colts. That was especially surprising given the quality of the Browns defense, which ranks second in DVOA against both the pass and the run.
That felt a bit fluky though, as the Browns best offense was their defense, picking up four turnovers including one returned for a touchdown, while handing their offense excellent field position. That's a lot less likely to happen against the steady QB play of Geno Smith than it was against Gardner Minshew and the Colts.
Which is where the pace splits come into play. Cleveland is more than happy to rely on their run game when possible, playing at the second-slowest pace in games they lead by multiple scores. Keeping the ball out of PJ Walker's hands is never a bad plan.
On the Seattle side, Pete Carrol has long played to keep things close, before making late comebacks (or clock-killing drives) late in the game. They don't vary their pace much with the scoreboard, which results in being faster than average with a lead but slower while trailing.
The splits have this one playing slightly faster than average with a close game, but ideally we'd catch this one with one team or the other in control, as the angles are much stronger then. Especially if the total has moved in the corresponding direction from the pregame line of 38.5
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
