Unlike last week, where we had a true game-time decision on a starting quarterback, Week 8 sets up to be pretty straightforward on Thursday Night Football.
The 3-3 Tampa Bay Bucs were expected to be rebuilding coming into the season, but they've outperformed their expectations thus far. A win tonight would have them tied for first place in the NFC South.
Buffalo has had an up-and-down season, with surprising losses to the Jets and Patriots, but a three-game stretch where they scored at least 37 points in each one. So far this season it's been pretty easy to determine early which Bills team we're getting on any given night — making this a prime live-betting spot.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 8
Bucs vs. Bills: Overs, Unless It's a Blowout — LIVE BETs MADE, Over 46.5 (-110, DraftKings), Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 INTs (+160, DK)
We’ve had 20 points scored already, but it really should have more, with the Bills getting 3 points combined between two drives that ended on the Bucs' 19 and 1 yard lines.
While we’re getting a bit worse than the pregame number at 46.5, we’ll still take the over with this game both ahead of schedule and having some bad luck in the scoring department. The best line is at -110 on DraftKings.
That isn't our only live bet tonight, though. Baker Mayfield has had some off target throws and faced a ton of pressure early in this game. With the Bills getting first possession of the second half, there’s a good chance he’ll also be facing a multiple-score deficit if Buffalo scores. That’s an ideal scenario for a turnover, so we’ll taker a sprinkle on Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions at +160 on DraftKings.
Here's how we previewed the live betting scenarios for this game before kick off:
The "unless it's a blowout" clause in this header is doing an awful lot of work, considering the Bills are favored by nine. That means, in theory, they should control this one wire-to-wire. Of course, "control" can mean a lot of different things. Holding on to a 7-to-10 point lead in a back and forth game is control; so is going up 14-0 in the first quarter and never looking back.
Those are obviously very different things, especially with how the Bills have approached games this season. In years past they used a ton of short passes to control the clock even when up big. This year, they've pivoted (slightly) to a more standard approach, leaning on their less-efficient run game when playing from in front. Don't get it twisted, they're still a pass-first team — but not to the extreme extent as they used to be.
Which means in true blowout scenarios, they're likely to lean more heavily on the run game. That's where the Bucs are stronger on defense, and would also (obviously) lead to a much slower pace. They're not the extreme pass funnel they once were, but are still better at stopping the run than the pass this season.
On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay has struggled so far this season in obvious passing situations. Quarterback Baker Mayfield went 19-for-37 for 206 yards when chasing points against the Lions, but he has been an effective game manager in close contests this year.
Buffalo also ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush this season defensively, so a scenario where Tampa Bay can continue to run the ball — or at least threaten to run — is clearly better for their offense.With a pass rate over expectation of precisely 0%, we can bank on Tampa letting the scoreboard mostly dictate their offensive approach.
There's not much to go by in terms of pace splits here, as no individual score scenario differs from the league average by more than half a second combined. Therefore, matchup-based angles are our best bet.
Additionally, there's a lot to like about the over generally. Sean Koerner is betting the over at 43.5 pregame, and our luck totals suggest that both teams "should" have scored more points this season.
However, by waiting to bet this live, we can hopefully catch a better number AND gather a bit more information about the game before making the bet. Outside of the totals, some other fringe spots worth monitoring are Mayfield live interceptions and Buffalo to cover the live spread with the Bucs trailing. Those both fit the thesis of Tampa struggling if forced to play catch up.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
