By Thursday Night Football standards — an admittedly low bar — we have a fairly compelling contest on our hands in Week 9. The always-competitive Steelers are 4-3 despite a -43 scoring differential on the season, and are theoretically in the thick of the playoff hunt in the wide open AFC.
They host the 3-4 Titans, a team that suddenly looks way more fun after switching to rookie Will Levis at quarterback. While oddsmakers aren't expecting fireworks with a total of just 37, they are expecting a close game. The hometown Steelers are three-point favorites, leaving essentially any game scenario in play.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 9
Titans at Steelers: Unders In a Close Game or Steelers Lead, Overs With a Titans Lead — LIVE BET MADE, Over 41.5 (-113, FanDuel)
While the Titans leading by just three would more accurately fall under the “close game” category, they also get the ball to start the second half. That should force the Steelers to lean more on their passing attack after the break, and they’ve already thrown the ball at a 60% clip. These teams are playing slow, yet they’re also mostly moving the ball effectively. The 41.5 line on FanDuel means we need just 19 more points in the second half following 23 in the first, so we’ll take the over at -113. And make sure to use our FanDuel promo code while you're there.
Here's how we previewed live betting this game before kickoff:
Unlike some primetime games, this is one we'd probably be targeting for live betting even if it were one of many games on a Sunday afternoon. That's because the style of play from both teams creates some clear betting angles depending on how this one plays out.
Let's start with the likeliest. That would be a close game, according to the three-point spread. Both teams feature negative Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) numbers and certainly prefer to control the game on the ground. They also both play at a below-average pace when the game is close.
The Titans moreso than the Steelers in both categories. Tennessee has been the single slowest team in the NFL when games are within a touchdown in either direction, with Pittsburgh playing just a hair slower than average. Improved quarterback play from Levis could shift them a bit more pass-heavy/faster, but it's still highly unlikely that they unleash the rookie for 40+ pass attempts unless they're chasing points.
Defensively, the Titans are also excellent at defending the run, with the second-best pass defense by DVOA. While there's a chance that forces the Steelers to air it out more, they aren't a team well-equipped to do so. Additionally, the beauty of live betting is we should at least have a slight read on how they're attacking offensively before we put any money down.
The Steelers are also somewhat better in pass defense, which is why we're including "Steelers Lead" as an under scenario. Of the three potential outcomes, that would be our least favorite — and thus the spot where we'll be pickiest. The Titans pass offense looked much better last week with Levis, injecting some uncertainty into the scenario. Still, it would put both offenses in a situation where they're attacking their opponents defensive strengths.
The one situation where we'd consider overs is if the Titans get out in front. That would almost certainly push the Steelers to the air, where the Titans are most attackable. On the flip side, giving Derrick Henry a chance at 25-plus touches could lead to some big plays from the Titans side.
In any situation, we'll also be looking form significant movement from the pregame 37-point total. That's such a low number as it is, we especially need some movement before playing the under. As always, bonus points if some fluky events (redzone field goals, defensive touchdowns, etc.) lead to their being more or less points on the board then they "should" have.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
