NFL Week 16 Picks, Predictions
Week 16 in the NFL season is unique because there are nine different windows for professional football watching surrounding the holiday weekend. Between Thursday Night Football, a Saturday doubleheader, all three traditional Sunday windows on Christmas Eve and a Christmas Day tripleheader, that gives us plenty of time to make our NFL picks.
With just three weeks to go, all nine playing windows also feature at least one team playing for playoff seeding or their playoff lives. There are only two games on the entire board between two teams that are 1% or lower to make the playoffs (Cardinals vs. Bears and Commanders vs. Jets).
Here are my thoughts on all 16 Week 16 NFL games. Normally, I start with Thursday Night Football, but I have a pick on that game this week so it can be found in that section.
My picks this season are 48-31-2 (60.8%) using lines listed in the bets section of this post. Let's get into my NFL Week 16 predictions.
| Category |
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| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 16 Picks |
All picks below are based on odds as of 3 p.m. ET Tuesday.
The Passes
It’s really hard to price the Chargers without Justin Herbert. You could make a convincing case that they're the worst team in the NFL right now, and I felt that way prior to Thursday's embarrassing loss in Las Vegas. The offensive line was graded as the worst in run blocking in the entire league, and now center Will Clapp, who is already filling in for Corey Linsley, is on the injured reserve.
The Chargers probably won’t commit five turnovers again and give up two non-offensive touchdowns. But if Keenan Allen doesn’t play, who are the skill players to fear or game plan for in the offense? It’s Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Gerald Everett and whatever Austin Ekeler has left.
From a situational sell-high, buy-low perspective, the Chargers are the ultimate hold-your-nose bet of the week, and the market has taken note of that. This line opened Buffalo -14, which was certainly too high. Buffalo is off its biggest win of the season at home against Dallas and now faces a Chargers team in a dead cat bounce spot. Not only did the Bolts get embarrassed, but they fired Brandon Staley and now have extra rest to prepare at home on a mini-bye week.
At 13 or more, I’d hold my nose and bet the Chargers. While this line is in the dead zone between 10.5 and 12.5, though, I’m not interested at all in either side of this game.
Verdict: Pass
Are people actually going to lay three with Trevor Siemian? I know that the Commanders have been arguably the worst defense in the NFL since they traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young, their two best pass rushers, but the Jets offense averaged 0.1 yards per play in the first half against what I think is a very average Miami defense last week.
Jacoby Brissett starting over Sam Howell would be an upgrade for Washington, and I’d only bet the Commanders if the market treated it as a downgrade.
This is technically the only game on the board between two already-eliminated teams, and I’ll be eliminating it from my betting card in all ways.
Verdict: Pass
If you read this column every week, you’ve ridden the full emotional rollercoaster of the 2023 Green Bay Packers season with me. The early optimism after a great Week 1. The midseason lull with no strong opinions on them as they struggled. The midseason buy-low for weeks until the market eventually caught up to them against the Giants and they dropped a road game in a tough Monday night spot.
Last Sunday was the "put up or shut up" spot at home against the Buccaneers as a small favorite. Green Bay’s offense remains solid and I’m a buyer in Jordan Love headed into 2024 with this group of young receivers and a great offensive line, but Love and Matt LaFleur could not overcome the black hole that is this defense. Green Bay’s defense under Joe Barry was a disaster at every level. Jaire Alexander’s constant injuries didn’t help, but the Packers are 29th in DVOA and can’t stop either the run or pass, nor can they tackle well. Baker Mayfield might've had the best game of his entire NFL career on Sunday.
The thought of laying 4.5 on the road against a Carolina team that has played even with New Orleans and Atlanta (according to the box score) isn’t appealing at all. Carolina could find some success on the ground and stay close here.
Verdict: Pass
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The Colts run defense has taken a huge step forward in the two games since Grover Stewart returned from suspension. The run defense ranked in the bottom four of the NFL while he was out, and Indianapolis has now held Pittsburgh to 3.4 yards per carry and Cincinnati to 3.5 with him. It’s a huge part of the challenge of slowing down the Atlanta run offense.
Indianapolis does have an extra day of rest, but the Colts are dealing with some key injuries on the offensive side of the ball. X-rays were negative for Zach Moss, but his status along with the concussed Michael Pittman Jr. remain uncertain. The Colts had to go very deep on the offensive depth chart last week with two receptions (and a key drop) by D.J. Montgomery and 28 combined carries by Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson.
If Pittman can’t go, it’s hard to see the Colts sustaining consistent offensive success on the road here. The Colts offense without Pittman, Moss and Jonathan Taylor is reliant on a lot of practice-squad-caliber fringe players to move the ball.
Backing Taylor Heinecke as a favorite is a bold effort, but the gulf in offensive talent is alarming if the Colts don’t have their guys available. The most important unit in this game could be the Colts defensive line, which remains extremely underrated but will need to show out to keep the Falcons skill position player advantage from showing itself.
Verdict: Pass and monitor Colts injury situation to potentially consider Falcons bet
The market is pricing in that C.J. Stroud will not from injury after his Tuesday concussion protocol check reportedly didn’t show improvement. He’s not the only player on the injury report with some real questions about availability. The Texans may be without star defensive rookie Will Anderson and the status of wide receiver Nico Collins must also be monitored. The Texans picked up a huge win against Tennessee in a comeback last week and now they need another win at home against Cleveland.
The Browns defense completely shut down the Bears last week, but there have been dramatic home and away splits for the Cleveland defense this season. The Browns were torched by the Ravens, Rams, Colts and even Broncos on the road.
The Browns have completely increased the early down pass frequency with Joe Flacco, and his vertical passing and gunslinger mentality has led to a lot more yards and a lot more turnovers for the offense.
All of those explosives and sudden change plays usually mean points at both ends of the field. The Browns secondary has some injuries to monitor too before potentially betting this one too. Given the Stroud uncertainty, this is a pass for now.
Verdict: Pass
Major quarterback uncertainty for both teams in this game makes this too hard to properly handicap this early in the week. Geno Smith is still a clear upgrade for me over Drew Lock, even after Lock engineered an impressive final drive to beat the Eagles on Monday Night Football. The Seahawks have less rest to recover for this game, but better weather could see Seattle be more aggressive in playing Smith.
The Titans have no incentive to play Will Levis, but the potential difference between Ryan Tannehill and Malik Willis is significant. Tannehill is second on the depth chart, but they’re clearly moving on from him after this season so why not give Willis a shot if Levis can’t play?
Stay tuned for more on this game later in the week.
Verdict: Pass
After weeks of betting against the Eagles, this may finally be the spot for them to get right. One thing is for sure: I will not be laying double digits in a divisional game with a football team that has two wins all season by double digits and whose quarterback seems out of sync overall. The Eagles have completely dominated this rivalry of late (three blowout wins last year), and Tommy DeVito isn’t the quarterback to take advantage of the clear holes in the Eagles secondary.
The Eagles locker room also seems out of sync and the finger-pointing has begun. The veteran defensive players basically threw defensive coordinator Sean Desai under the bus and left Matt Patricia calling plays from the sideline. Darius Slay has been on Twitter claiming he’s playing just fine, while A.J. Brown went on a Twitter rant on Tuesday defending the quarterback and offensive system.
Jalen Hurts played through illness on Monday, but the issues for him in this offense run deeper than that. The Eagles scored 20 or more points in the first half 10 times last year. This year, they haven't done it yet. The pass rush and run-stopping units have fallen back as the season has progressed, and now the Giants have an extra day of rest.
The Giants defense is still a bottom-five unit since Week 10, but maybe the blitz-heavy approach from defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will continue to befuddle the Eagles offense. Philly has struggled against the blitz, but this game is under or nothing for me. I’ll be hoping the Eagles hold serve for a better Arizona number in Week 17.
Verdict: Pass
The Leans
The state of Pennsylvania is 0-6 in the last three weeks as both the Steelers and Eagles have regressed and both have lost three in a row. As a result, there’s a new number one in the Action Network Luck Rankings: the Bengals. The Steelers still hold the number two spot, making this the unofficial 2023 Luckbox Bowl™.
It’s impossible for me to get anywhere near Cincinnati laying this number in Pittsburgh. These two teams played in Cincinnati in Week 12, and the Steelers closed a -2.5 point road favorite. Pittsburgh took heavy money all week and won the game and box score comfortably, gaining more than 400 yards. Sure, Jake Browning deserves a market upgrade based on the past few weeks. The Steelers lost Kenny Pickett to injury and now Mason Rudolph will start to try to light the way for the Steelers back into the AFC playoff race just before Christmas.
If you just flipped home field from that matchup in Week 12, you’d get to Pittsburgh -5 in this spot. Now, the Steelers are +2. Has the opinion on these two teams really changed by a full touchdown in a month?
Pittsburgh should be able to run the ball on a pretty weak Cincinnati run defense. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of a soft Pittsburgh secondary that's missing a ton of key players. Minkah Fitzpatrick left Saturday’s game injured and won’t play, while Damontae Kazee is suspended. The Pittsburgh linebackers can’t really cover either.
The Bengals probably won’t have Ja’Marr Chase, but they have enough weapons with the emergence of Tanner Hudson and Chase Brown to exploit the soft middle of the Steeler defense.
The weather looks unseasonably warm for Pittsburgh in December with temperatures in the high 40s and low winds. If this total gets down to 36.5, I’ll be betting the over. At 37, just a lean for me.
Verdict: Lean Over 37, bet at 36.5
The Lions went back indoors and Jared Goff had his best game of the season against an overrated Denver defense. The good news for the Lions is that the offense is fully healthy and Goff will play all three of his remaining regular-season games indoors. We’re probably at the ceiling of what the Vikings can truly be as a defense, and there’s likely regression looming.
It’s quite impressive that Brian Flores took a relatively untalented defense and turned it into a unit that ranks fifth in DVOA, seventh in EPA per play and ninth in success rate allowed. Even if you remove turnovers from the sample, Minnesota's defense is still eighth in EPA.
The Vikings pass rush still grades out right around league average, so there’s not much in this matchup that leads me to think they’ll get near Jared Goff without blitzing. Goff from a clean pocket this season has been elite with 8.0 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns and just two INTs.
The Lions have so many offensive weapons on the outside that they can use to expose a Minnesota defense that's playing way above its head. Can the Vikings blitz often and still manage to cover Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams in space on a fast indoor track? I'm skeptical.
This number seems right to me at three, and I’d be quite surprised if it moved off the key number. I’d look to back the Lions at -2.5 or better but also can acknowledge the Lions pass rush should be stymied by an elite Vikings OL and Nick Mullens should have offensive success.
Detroit’s defense has some real questions still, but C.J. Gardner-Johnson appears to be returning to practice to help this struggling secondary.
Verdict: Lean Lions at -2.5
The Jacksonville offense has become almost entirely one-dimensional and the late-game injuries to Trevor Lawrence and Zay Jones leave them shorthanded around Lawrence if he can even clear concussion protocol in time to play in this Sunday’s crucial Florida contest. If you take out Lawrence rush yards, then the Jaguars managed 41 total yards on the ground against the Ravens last Sunday night.
The Jaguars are in a three-way tie in the AFC South but are in first thanks to tiebreakers. The Bucs are tied with the Saints for first and also hold the tiebreaker at 7-7 in the NFC South. The Bucs offense erupted against a bad secondary in Green Bay last week, and the health of Chris Godwin as a second option next to Mike Evans is a key one to watch this week. Godwin and Evans plus the emergence of Cade Otton in the passing game should lead to a pass-heavy approach for the Bucs. Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to run the ball all season, and it won’t really be able to run it on this Jacksonville front anyway.
The holes for the Jaguars defense are in the back end, which allowed Joe Flacco to torch them two weeks ago and Jake Browning the week prior. Tampa Bay’s secondary did finally get key corner Jamel Dean back last week and Carlton Davis will be in contention to play on Sunday with another week to rest. Tampa Bay made Devin White a healthy scratch last week, which looks like addition by subtraction based on his play this season.
The Buccaneers defense loves to blitz and be aggressive, and Lawrence has struggled against the blitz this year. He has a 4.7% turnover-worthy plate rate against the blitz and his Pro Football Focus grade drops off considerably. He’s averaged one-half yard fewer per attempt against the blitz.
The Jaguars offense without Jones and Christian Kirk is dangerously close to Justin Herbert-Chargers territory with over-reliance on 1-2 players to make the offense work.
Verdict: Lean Tampa Bay but wait on more injury news, bet TB as an underdog if Lawrence is in
Chicago was -3 on the lookahead and while that was probably a little short, is there really an appetite to lay a 4.5 number with the Bears here? They had all of the turnover luck possible in Cleveland on Sunday and still lost to the Browns. There were two key drops that received a lot of attention, but the Bears offense only mustered a total of three points. Chicago had 3.4 yards per play and gained just 237 total yards.
The Bears should be able to better move the ball of course against a terrible Cardinals defense, but 4.5 is too high.
The Cardinals ran the ball for a ton of success on the 49ers, and the box score from that game was basically even. The Bengals probably won’t have Ja’Marr Chase, but they have enough weapons with the emergence of Tanner Hudson and Chase Brown to exploit the soft middle of the Steeler defense. The key difference was the pick-six that Kyler Murray threw and the 49ers' superior execution in turning red-zone possessions into touchdowns.
There’s no way you can’t upgrade the Cardinals considerably after that game, though, yet the market moved toward Chicago here.
There’s been a lot of talk about the Bears recent run of improved play. Since Week 10, Kyler Murray’s return, the Cardinals are 15th in offensive EPA per play and the Bears are 23rd. By success rate, Arizona is 18th in Chicago is 28th.
Laying 4.5 with Chicago is making a big bet on the Bears top-five defense since Week 10 holding up and not just being statistical noise. I have a spot in Week 17 circled to bet Arizona, but the Cardinals are a clear lean for me to them in this matchup.
Verdict: Lean Arizona +4.5
NFL Week 16 Picks
Both New Orleans and Tampa Bay won out non-divisional games in Week 15, which is rare for the NFC South this season. The division is still 13-25 against the spread as a whole in non-divisional games this year. The Saints have only played one offense this season that's currently in the top 10 in offensive success rate — a home game against the Lions in Week 13.
Detroit scored 33 points on 340 yards and 6.2 yards per play. The Saints' defensive metrics are buoyed by a very friendly schedule overall. Per DVOA, only Miami has played an easier schedule of opposing offenses than the Saints this season. New Orleans is top five in EPA per play and success rate as a result of that weak schedule, and the market is overvaluing the unit as a result. The Saints rank just 12th in DVOA and the pass rush will struggle to generate consistent pressure against Matthew Stafford.
The Rams offense is executing at an extremely high level right now. Since Stafford returned from injury after the Week 10 bye, the Rams have not only won four of five games, but they rank inside the top 10 in rushing success rate, rush EPA, and pass EPA. The offense as a whole ranks seventh in EPA per play and that’s despite playing the Browns and Ravens, two of the best defenses in the NFL and having a ton of success against both.
New Orleans dominated Tommy DeVito and the Giants last Sunday, but the Saints offense isn’t nearly explosive enough to keep up with the Rams in this tough spot. The Rams have a clear QB, coach and rest/travel advantage. For that reason, I’d bet them at -4 or better.
Verdict: Bet Rams -4 or lower
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The Cowboys offense struggled as Dak Prescott had one of the two worst games of his season in the 31-10 loss to Buffalo. If I told you before kickoff that Josh Allen would complete just seven passes in the entire game, you’d probably assume he left the game injured or had the worst game of his career. Buffalo’s elite offensive line completely dominated in the run game and at home in a home run spot for the Bills.
Miami’s offensive line injuries and inconsistent running game make it more difficult to replicate that success this week. Watch closely the status of Cowboys defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, who missed that game and is probably 50/50 to play against Miami. The Dolphins defense has faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL. When they’ve faced a good offense, the opponent has moved the ball comfortably. Kansas City scored three first-half touchdowns, while the Bills and Eagles faced little resistance.
Both of these defenses have had their numbers inflated by facing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. Both of these defenses have struggled to hold up when facing better competition. The key difference right now is the injuries along the Miami offensive line and that Dak Prescott is much more reliable from the pocket than Tua Tagovailoa when under pressure.
Dallas still has an elite pass rush and while its man-coverage scheme will certainly be tested against this Miami speed, the pass rush should get a lot more wins overall. The Cowboys are the better team marginally and catching two on the road, I’d bet them to win this game.
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When the opponent isn’t handing them multiple short fields per game, the Broncos aren’t a particularly good team. That best shows in the drive stats and the EPA numbers when you strip away those high-variance turnovers and that aren’t predictive or particularly repeatable.
The "playoff hopeful and much improved" Denver Broncos are 22nd in DVOA entering Week 16, just five spots ahead of the ‘terrible, tanking, disaster season’ New England Patriots at 27th. The Patriots are still a Bill Belichick defense, at least for a few more weeks. The Broncos will not be able to run the ball on this Patriots front, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed.
Denver is 27th in defensive yards per drive allowed and just 23rd in offensive yards per drive. New England is elite defensively in yards per drive allowed and if Bailey Zappe doesn't give the ball away multiple times, New England is barely worse than the Broncos on a play-to-play basis.
In fact, in net yards per drive, New England is actually better overall. From a net success rate perspective (offense minus defense), the Patriots are also better. New England shouldn’t be catching 6.5 with a total this low and I’ll bet New England at +6.5 if I have to. I haven't bet NE yet because of the chance the line hits 7. ’
Verdict: Bet New England at +6.5, but wait to see if a +7 comes
Las Vegas grabbed an early 14-point lead in the first meeting between these two teams before the Chiefs turned the game around and ultimately won comfortably, 31-17. These teams both averaged 6.2 yards per play and finished the game with nearly the exact number of yards. Now, the Chiefs are once again in a rest disadvantage spot as the Raiders come into this game with the mini-bye.
There’s a ton of market respect for the Chiefs defense for them to be laying 10 with a total of 41.5. The market is only expecting the Raiders to manage 16 points. The offense has had two extreme outliers in a row with a shutout and a 63-point outburst, but this is still a divisional matchup. The Raiders defensive approach is designed to take away explosive plays, which should force the Chiefs to move the ball very methodically down the field.
Kansas City's receiving room still isn’t reliable and it took a career game for rookie Rashee Rice in the first meeting to propel this offense to life. Kansas City will likely play from the front in the second half and we’ve seen time and time again that the Chiefs will slow the game to a crawl in that game script.
In years past, Patrick Mahomes led teams that struggled to cover as a big favorite because of the holes in the defense. Now, it’s the offense’s severe lack of explosiveness.
The Jaguars offense exposed some real holes in the Ravens secondary despite being extremely one-dimensional. What’s going to happen on the road against Brock Purdy and this currently unstoppable 49ers offense? Jacksonville had six trips past Baltimore's 40-yard line and didn’t score a single point on those trips. The Jaguars had an end-of-half botch, a touchdown wrongly overturned, two missed field goals and a red zone fumble. San Francisco will not only move the ball but will convert those yards into points much more efficiently.
The 49ers, when healthy under Purdy, remain a near-lock for 27+ points each and every game. I know it seems square to bet the over on the best offense in the NFL, but we continue to get these prices against overvalued defenses like Philadelphia and Tampa Bay before that.
Both of these offenses rank decently low in pace because they play from the front so often. Baltimore is top 10 in pace when trailing or in neutral situation game states. They’ll have to play faster from behind in this game, and the Cardinals showed last week that you can have success on the ground against this San Francisco front. Arizona ran for 234 yards on 7.8 yards per rush. They also had a ton of success running on Dallas early in the year, and it foretold danger for the overvalued Dallas rush defense.
