NFL Player Props: Wild Card Best Bets (Jan. 14, Sunday)
Sunday could be one of the best playoff days of football that we've seen in a long time.
We have NFL player props for a doubleheader of games with totals north of 50. Our betting analysts have you covered for both Packers-Cowboys and Rams-Lions. Click on a prop below to navigate this post.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Packers vs. Cowboys
Excellence has been the name of the game for Dak Prescott this season. Despite Tony Pollard’s woes in the backfield, the Cowboys became an elite passing offense. Prescott finished third in the NFL in passing yards and first in touchdowns.
CeeDee Lamb is a bonafide superstar and the Packers will have their hands full stopping the Oklahoma product. Could we see double coverage when lined up on the outside? Almost certainly.
That means more 1-on-1 opportunities for other receivers. One player that has a great matchup is tight end Jake Ferguson, who has quickly become one of the most reliable tight ends in the NFL.
The Packers are 26th in DVOA against the tight end position, allowing over 50 yards per game (4.2 receptions). They run zone coverage nearly three quarters of the time, an area where Ferguson ranks second among Dallas’ consistent receiving options (1.40 Y/RR). He’s also been excellent against man.
In the last six games, Ferguson has hauled in 40+ receiving yards all but once. He’s been targeted over seven times per game, ranking second on the team in receptions, targets and yards.
I expect this game to be closer than the 7-point spread indicates. That means more passing from Dallas, and in turn, more opportunities for Ferguson to take advantage of his matchup.
Pick: Jake Ferguson Over 44.5 Receiving Yards |
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Packers vs. Cowboys
By Tony Sartori
There are multiple reasons why I love fading Dontayvion Wicks' receptions props in this game. First, no matter how well Jordan Love has played, this is still a young quarterback going on the road for his first career playoff game.
He also gets the pleasure of going against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. This season, Dallas ranked sixth in the league in yards allowed per game and fifth in passing yards allowed per game. Underlying metrics suggest regression is unlikely, as the Cowboys rank sixth in expected points contributed by passing defense.
That brings us to Wicks, who is currently in a good sell-high spot.
He torched Chicago last week, hauling in six catches for 61 yards while adding two touchdowns. A great performance, no doubt, but this is still a guy who has recorded two or fewer catches in eight of his 15 games this season.
On top of this, Green Bay loves to work the ball around as they don't have a true No. 1 receiver. Finally, fellow wideout Christian Watson could return to the lineup Sunday.
If that is the case, then Wicks would be slotted down to the fourth wide receiver on the depth chart. We are catching a good number here with +112 at BetRivers, a line that is seven-to-12 cents longer than the rest of the market. I would play this number down to +105.
Pick: Dontayvion Wicks Under 2.5 Receptions |
Rams vs. Lions
If the Rams do score, Kyren Williams will be the most likely guy to find the end zone — like usual. Williams has scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games for Los Angeles this season, a 75% hit rate that would imply -300 for an Anytime TD. We get -137 instead at Caesars, so I'll play that one too.
Williams has multiple touchdowns in nearly half his games (five of 12), so let's ride the escalator too at +400 for 2+ scores (FanDuel), though just a sprinkle since Detroit's run defense is so tough.
I think the Rams win outright. If they do, it only makes sense to sprinkle them at +900 to score the most points of the weekend as well.
Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (-150) |
Rams vs. Lions
This might be my most bet touchdown prop over the last two years, and I’m fully ready to lean into it again. The matchup is amazing, and Cooper Kupp is a red-zone weapon who has amazing rapport with Matthew Stafford, so it’s only right I bet his anytime touchdown.
Kupp has a touchdown in four of his last five games, and the one game he did not score (against the Saints), he had two targets inside the 10-yard line that were slightly overthrown. The Lions also gave up the sixth-most receiving touchdowns this year (28). Give me Kupp anytime touchdown at +115 against the Lions.
Pick: Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown (+115) |
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Rams vs. Lions
By Cody Goggin
Puka Nacua has had statistically the best season of any rookie receiver in NFL history. Coming out of seemingly nowhere, the fifth-round pick from BYU put up 105 catches for 1,486 yards this season.
The duo of Nacua and Kupp has been dangerous for defenses across the league this season ever since Kupp has been back and fully healthy. Since Kupp’s resurgence around the start of December, targets and catches have been split pretty evenly between the two starting receivers, with Kupp having the edge in both (one more target and four more catches).
Detroit ranks 29th in PFF coverage grade this season. They are also 25th in both dropback success rate and EPA per dropback allowed. This is a unit that Matthew Stafford and the Rams should be able to take advantage of.
While Kupp and Nacua’s props are relatively similar, I think it is Nacua who is in line to have a bigger game. Using PFF’s matchup tool, Nacua has the better matchup in this one.
Kupp lines up in the slot 61% of the time. Unfortunately for him, this means that he will see plenty of Brian Branch. The rookie from Alabama has had an impressive showing this year and has been the best player in this Lions’ secondary.
Nacua, on the other hand, should see a lot more of Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor, as Nacua plays 45% of his snaps on the right side of the alignment and 70% of his snaps from the outside in general.
Of the 135 cornerbacks to play at least 145 snaps this season, Branch ranks 23rd in PFF coverage grade while Vildor is 101st and Sutton is 110th. This matchup bodes much better for Nacua than it does for Kupp, and it doesn’t seem like this is being taken into account in the betting lines.
At 76.5 yards, I like taking Nacua's over as I believe the rookie can continue building onto his fantastic rookie season with a favorable matchup Sunday night.
Pick: Puka Nacua Over 76.5 Receiving Yards |
Rams vs. Lions
Demarcus Robinson has come out of nowhere to be a heavily involved piece in this offense. He has hit the over at this number in each of the last five games and is averaging around seven targets per game over that span.
The matchup isn't a bad one against the Lions, as Detroit has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game this season. Additionally, games in Detroit tend to have massive offensive outputs, as the over has hit in 12 of the last 17 home games. The total is high at 51.5, and the Lions are 3-point favorites, which should lead to a solid passing game script. I would hit this line all the way to 45.5 yards.
Pick: Demarcus Robinson Over 44.5 Receiving Yards |
Rams vs. Lions
By Chris Raybon
Goff has recorded positive rushing yardage in only five games. Nineteen of his 31 carries this season have been kneel-downs, and he has scrambled on only 1.1% of his dropbacks, per PFF.
The Lions are favored at home, so Goff is also the more likely of the two quarterbacks in this game to get kneel-downs.
Pick: Jared Goff Under 1.5 Rushing Yards |
Rams vs. Lions
By Ricky Henne
Aiden Hutchinson has been an absolute menace down the stretch, totaling five sacks in his last two games. He's in a strong position to notch at least one Sunday in a game that’s expected to feature a ton of passes.
The Rams’ offensive line has been stout this year, as Matthew Stafford has been sacked on only 5.4% of his dropbacks, which is tied for sixth-best among quarterbacks to play at least 10 games. However, the offensive line struggled a bit down the stretch. Stafford was sacked 10 times in his last four games after being sacked only 11 times in the previous seven.
Additionally, while the Lions move Hutchinson around to various spots along the defensive line, he sees the majority of his snaps against the opposition’s right tackle. That means he’ll go up mostly against Rob Havenstein, who’s a more effective run blocker than pass protector.
PFF grades Havenstein as the league’s fourth-best tackle in the run game, but only 35th in pass blocking. Despite his low grade, he’s given up only two sacks this season. However, on the flip side, he hasn’t faced many players like Hutchinson, who is PFF’s fifth-highest graded pass rusher. In fact, the Rams faced only seven teams with an edge rusher graded in the top 20 during the regular season.
Meanwhile, expect Los Angeles to air it out a ton to keep up with Detroit’s high-powered offense. Teams have averaged the second-most pass attempts per game against the Lions over the final three weeks with 39.3 per contest.
What clinches this for me is that we have Hutchinson at 0.25 sacks instead of 0.75. Overall, this is the stereotypical good process bet in my opinion, as we have a red-hot pass rusher against an average-graded pass blocker in a game that figures to see a high volume of pass attempts.
