We are so back! The 2024 NFL season is finally here.
We've waited nine months for a full Sunday of NFL action, so let's not waste more time. This is my Week 1 betting card with my NFL picks and best bets for Sunday.
Be sure to check out my full season preview futures manifesto, if you haven't yet — 20,000 words containing a team preview, a win total over/under pick, and a futures bet for every team. You can still tail most of them!
I won't be writing about every game this season, but you can find my best bets each week here, as well as "The Action Network Podcast." Be sure to read Jacob Wayne's weekly "Pass or Play" column for coverage of every game.
Let's get right to the picks and have ourselves an Opening Sunday.
Brandon Anderson's NFL Week 1 Picks
- Panthers +4 (-110, Caesars)
- Steelers-Falcons Under 42.5 (-110, FanDuel)
- Daniel Jones Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-120, DraftKings)
- Dolphins -3 (-115, DraftKings)
- Seahawks -9.5 (+150), -13.5 (+250), -19.5 (+500, DraftKings)
- Week 2 Lookahead: Seahawks -3 (-105, Caesars)
NFL lines are always moving. Follow Brandon in the Action App and @wheatonbrando for final updates and be sure to check out our live, updating NFL odds page.
NFL Odds Week 1
- Steelers vs Falcons: Falcons -3.5
- Jaguars vs. Dolphins: Dolphins -3.5
- Vikings vs. Giants: Vikings -1.5
- Titans vs. Bears: Bears -4
- Panthers vs. Saints: Saints -3.5
- Cardinals vs. Bills: Bills -6.5
- Bengals vs. Patriots: Bengals -7.5
- Texans vs. Colts: Texans -3
- Broncos vs. Seahawks: Seahawks -6
- Raiders vs. Chargers: Chargers -3
- Cowboys vs. Browns: Browns -2.5
- Commanders vs. Bucs: Bucs -3.5
- Rams vs. Lions: Lions -4.5
- Jets vs. 49ers: 49ers -4
Odds via our live, updating NFL odds page. Be sure to shop around for the best lines when making your bets.
NFL Week 1 Best Bets
Panthers Island!! You already know we're starting with this one right out of the gates on Sunday.
Christmas came early for bettors — Dennis Allen is somehow back as an NFL head coach, giving us what may be a last few precious times to bet against Derek Carr and the Saints as favorites.
Allen is 8-16-1 ATS as a favorite in the NFL, a horrendous 33% cover rate that gets even worse in the division (30%). He's also 6-12 ATS in September for his career, where coaching edges are at a premium at the start of the season.
Of course, Carr hasn't been much better. He's just 21-37-2 ATS as a favorite for his career (36%), and it's even worse when favored by at least a field goal. There, he drops to 11-26-2 ATS, below 30%, and has covered just four of his last 19 such games with nine outright losses. Just terrible.
This would be a play on the number and Allen/Carr trends alone, even if we didn't like Carolina. But we also like Carolina.
Dave Canales is familiar with this Saints defense, the one strength left on the team now that the offensive line has cratered and the coaching staff is bad. He should set up Bryce Young to succeed, and so should an improved offensive line and the better receiving options. Ejiro Evero's defense should also find success against the bad O-line.
Road underdogs in Week 1 that didn't make the playoffs are 57-31-2 ATS (65%) since 2011. Division underdogs in Week 1 are 53-26-1 ATS (67%) since 2010, and that trend hasn't had a single losing season in that stretch.
There's still time to invest in Panthers Island at +1200 to go worst-to-first in the NFC South, but you might never get that price again. Atlanta and Tampa Bay are short favorites. There's a chance the Panthers take this one outright and end up a game up on everyone by Monday.
Play the +175 moneyline too if you like. Panthers Island — we ride!
Pick: Panthers +4 (-110)
This is a frustrating matchup in Week 1, because I was so eager to fade both of these teams early. Both are overrated in the market, teams I'm playing unders and miss the playoffs futures, and both have a similar unknown problem at quarterback.
The Falcons spent big on Kirk Cousins, but we haven't even seen him yet. Cousins is on a new team, in a new scheme, with new weapons and a new coaching staff, and he's coming off a torn Achilles under a year ago and playing against a perennially great Steelers defense with a mean pass rush that could give Atlanta's pass blocking problems.
The Steelers decided on Russell Wilson, but now could end up playing Justin Fields with Wilson struggling through a calf injury. Neither QB fits Arthur Smith's system well with their inability to attack the middle of the field. Pittsburgh should run much better than pass this season, but Atlanta's run defense was good last season, and it looks like the Steelers will likely be without LT Troy Fautanu and LG Isaac Seumalo.
For years, Mike Tomlin road unders have been a cash cow. At 80-56-1 lifetime (59%), he's the most profitable coach in our BetLabs system. That includes 67% in the first 10 games of the season, and he's only gone over four times in the last 25 road games, so the trend is only getting stronger. Now, we likely get Russell Wilson, who is 56-40 to the under on the road for his career (58%), the second most profitable only to Ben Roethlisberger, aka Tomlin.
This is a trend match made in heaven: Tomlin and Russ road unders.
I just have a hard time seeing either of these teams scoring much in Week 1. Expect a slog of a battle for every point, and take the under.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-120)
As a Vikings fan, I really didn't need Vikings-Giants on opening day. That matchup gives me nightmares from the playoff disaster two years ago, let alone 41-0 in the 2002 NFC Championship Game. I can't unsee Daniel Jones single-handedly running my beloved Vikings straight out of the playoffs.
Jones ran 17 times for 78 in that playoff game, a clear strategy from Brian Daboll, and it makes sense. Jones is barely a starter-worthy QB, but his one definite NFL skill is running the football.
Jones averaged over 43 yards per game on the ground these last two years since Daboll joined the team and built the offense around Jones' running ability. He has at least 20 rushing yards in 18 of 21 full starts, a super reliable floor that puts us a single seven-yard scamper from this over. We also get Daboll calling plays again, and Jones had 27 runs of 10+ yards under Daboll's play calls in 2022, including four in that Vikings playoff game alone.
Both offensive lines may be in trouble this game, but the Giants especially so. Their line remains a mess outside of LT Andrew Thomas, and Brian Flores will bring Minnesota pressure in defense all game long. Expect Jones to be scrambling for his life, and he's mobile enough that he could hit this over on one run.
Yes, Jones is coming off an ACL tear, but you can only play to your abilities, and my man runs the ball. He looked himself (for better and for worse) in one half of preseason action, and though he only ran once, he gained 12 yards which was still nearly on pace for this over.
Jones has at least 50 rushing yards in eight of 21 full starts with Daboll, a 38% hit rate that implies nearly double the value on the 50+ alt line at +425, so I'll sprinkle a quarter unit on the escalator.
Pick: Daniel Jones Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-120), sprinkle 50+ Rushing Yards at (+425)
The Dolphins are my No. 1 offense entering the new season, at least at the start of the year.
Mike McDaniel always has a new twist to unveil to open the new season and often has opposing defenses dizzied in response. McDaniel is a perfect 6-0 ATS the first three weeks of the season, while Doug Pederson is just 8-13 ATS.
Jacksonville was stronger defensively than offensively last season but curiously chose to move on from its defensive coordinator and shuffle the secondary. The new defense wants to play heavy man coverage and that's a tough task against all this Miami speed, especially for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff with temperatures expected over 90 degrees.
Tua Tagovailoa is a remarkable 17-4 ATS lifetime with temperatures of at least 77 degrees (81%), and he's also 66% ATS in the early Sunday window, likely capturing many of the same games. Miami scheduled this one early in the heat on purpose.
Defenses will be sucking wind against all this speed by the start of the second half, especially early in the year while conditioning is poor. And yes, Jacksonville is in Florida too, but Trevor Lawrence is 2-6 ATS in the same heat and 15-25 ATS outdoors.
I'm not confident in Miami's defense, but I'm also not certain it matters because Jacksonville's offense will have a hard time keeping up. I wanted the -3 and bet it at -115 at DraftKings. If you've got -3.5 or worse, this is more of a half-unit lean, or you can pivot and play alternate lines and hope Miami runs up the score.
Pick: Dolphins -3 (-115)
If you've been reading my preseason previews, you know I'm all-in on Seattle this season. I think the Seahawks made the absolute perfect coaching hires for this team.
Mike Macdonald was the hire of the offseason, even in a crowded coaching cycle. He should act as CEO but will also transform this defense — and we already saw how much Baltimore's defense dropped off without his smart adjustments. Seattle invested into its defensive line, and I like the sneaky pickups of Tyrell Dodson and Jerome Baker at LB and expect Macdonald to unleash CB Devon Witherspoon as a weapon a la Kyle Hamilton.
But it's not just Macdonald! I love their new OC Ryan Grubb too. Grubb did masterful work at the University of Washington to elevate his quarterback, and he was super aggressive attacking down field with the deep ball. That's a perfect fit for Geno Smith, who rated as the best deep passer in the NFL last season with a perfect 99.9 PFF grade, and who has three outstanding receivers in DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett.
I'm in on Seattle. I'm on the over, and I'm playing long-tail outcomes like the division odds and even the No. 1 seed. Denver, on the other hand, I expect to contend for the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Broncos are more bad than terrible, but this is a pretty tough spot for Bo Nix, making a rookie road debut in Seattle, one of the last true home-field advantages left in the NFL, against this aggressive Macdonald defense.
This line has risen from -4.5 to -6 and robbed some of the value, so I'm skipping the traditional line and playing an alternate lines escalator.
Denver had five double-digit losses last season, four of them on the road, including losses by 25 and 50. In the last 15 years, Week 1 home favorites who won the game were winners by an average margin of 10.8 points. We'll put 0.6 units on Seattle -9.5 at +150 to cover that number, and 0.25 units on -13.5 at +250, since 30 of those 95 wins came by at least 14.
Non-conference home favorite winners in Week 1 over that same time frame won by at least 20 points in 17 of 54 meetings, a 31% hit rate. So, the last 0.15 units of our bet goes on Seattle -19.5 at +500.
If the Seahawks are as good as I'm expecting this season, Denver might get steamrolled if the game gets away from the rookie Nix on the road early. Let's set ourselves up to profit in a big win.
Pick: Seahawks Escalator: -9.5 (+150), -13.5 (+250), -19.5 (+500)
Lookahead NFL Week 2 Picks: Bet Seattle Early
Each week on The Action Network Podcast, I give out a Lookahead on Friday for the games set to take place the following week. Lines always reset pretty hard on Sunday night after a full day of results, and the goal of the Lookahead is to get ahead of this week's results and grab a line now that we won't be able to get later.
We are not getting Seahawks -3 after Sunday.
The Patriots are Week 1's biggest underdog on the road in Cincinnati. If that one goes the way books expect, the Patriots could get embarrassed on the road, and I'm not sure the market has caught up to how much this team should be downgraded after losing Bill Belichick.
Since I'm also already in on Seattle and expect a big win against the Browns, that sets up this line to shift dramatically, maybe even ending up closer to a touchdown than the current number by kickoff.
The scheduling gods gave Seattle an absolute gift to start the season with Denver and New England, two of the softest opponents in the league. This line is a gift for bettors. Grab Seattle -3 before we lose the key number.
Pick: Seahawks -3 (-105)
