Action Network's Predictive Analytics team has crunched the numbers — the result is six NFL predictions for Week 1.
Their data-driven picks include a bevy of player props — including key players like Jonathan Taylor and Tank Dell — plus exotics for Cardinals vs Bills, Vikings vs Giants and Cowboys vs Browns.
NFL Predictions Week 1: Data-Driven Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL predictive analytics staff is targeting from NFL Week 1 Sunday. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific data-driven best bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Billy Ward's Texans vs Colts Best Bet: Rare Value on Jonathan Taylor
By Billy Ward
There’s typically not a ton of value on the first TD scorer market, as it’s effectively just a function of the team total and the player’s share of his team’s offense – and thus fairly easy for books to price accurately.
However, DraftKings seems to have missed the mark on Jonathan Taylor, who’s priced well longer than he is at FanDuel (+550) or Caesars (+480).
We’re projecting Taylor with a 13% chance of scoring first, which works out to fair odds of around +670 — +700 isn’t a huge edge, but it’s a fun long-shot option with some real EV based on the line differences between books.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor First TD Scorer (+700)
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Nick Giffen's Texans vs Colts Best Bet: Plus Matchup for Tank Dell
By Nick Giffen
Dell had seven touchdowns in what was effectively 10 games as a rookie (he was injured early in the 11th game), and while we do have to adjust for the addition of Stefon Diggs, +275 is still too long.
The Colts return their secondary unit in tact, but this was a unit that was in the bottom half of the league in defensive pass DVOA and TDs allowed to the wide receiver position.
On the individual matchup front, Dell should get the plurality of his snaps across from JuJu Brents, who allowed a whopping 1.6 yards per coverage route, which is the fifth most of any cornerback expected to start this weekend.
As an additional boost, Dell ranked 12th among all qualified WRs in yards per route run against zone coverage. That pairs well against the Colts, who played the most zone in the league last year under defensive coordinator Gus Bradley.
I have Dell to score projected closer to +200.
Pick: Tank Dell Anytime TD (+275)
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Billy Ward's Cardinals vs Bills Best Bet: Explosive Offenses Clash
By Billy Ward
I’d feel better about this pick if it only included the Sunday afternoon games, as Sunday Night Football between the Lions and Rams has the highest overall total on Sunday.
Then again, we wouldn’t be getting nearly as good odds as we are, so I suppose it’s a good thing.
There are two reasons I’m in on this bet. One, I’m bullish on the Cardinals offense. They’ve got a fully healthy Kyler Murray, and a greatly improved receiver room with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr.
The other reason is the Bills. They’ve historically kept their foot on the gas when playing from ahead in the Josh Allen/Sean McDermott era, so we don’t necessarily need a close game to finish with a big number.
Still, I’m expecting this one to be closer than the spread indicates (at least for much of the game), which increases the chance of an outlier day. If they lead the afternoon slate, consider hedging with an over/alt over bet on the Lions-Rams game heading into Sunday Night Football.
Pick: Highest Scoring Game on Sunday (+700)
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Billy Ward's Vikings vs Giants Best Bet: Follow the Trends
By Billy Ward
It was just a few years ago that books offered a flat price on this prop for every single game, with the “no” consistently priced at +175. Unfortunately those days are gone, but we can still find certain spots where the bet is worth taking.
One of those is Vikings/Giants, which has both a close spread (1.5) and low total (41.5). The true odds on the “no” side for games with a spread of less than 2.0 is right around the +120 we’re getting, but lower totals also correlate with a better chance of the "no."
Based on the spread/total combination, I make this one a slight favorite to hit, so "no" at +120 is a decent edge.
Pick: Either Team to Have 3 Unanswered Scores: No (+120)
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Nick Giffen's Raiders vs Chargers Best Bet: Smash Tre Tucker Props?
By Nick Giffen
Tre Tucker over 14.5 receiving yards is just one of a number of overs I like for the Raiders receiver. The others include:
- 25+ receiving yards (+200) at bet365 (0.5 units)
- 25+ receiving yards & Anytime TD SGP (+1400) at bet365 OR … 30+ receiving yards & Anytime TD (+1600) at BetMGM/ESPN Bet (0.1u)
Tucker is the Raiders’ third receiving option after Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, so don’t expect a ton of volume for the former third-round pick.
What we can expect, though, are downfield passes to Tucker. Last year, he ranked second in average depth of target (aDOT) among all WRs with at least 30 targets.
This matchup is nice, too. The Chargers struggled against deep balls last year, ranking sixth-worst in defensive DVOA against them.
Yes, the Chargers hired Jesse Minter as their defensive coordinator, representing a change from last year’s team that struggled. However, Minter’s defenses at Michigan implemented a hefty dose of Cover 1 and Cover 3 — the top two coverages that Tucker performed against last year by EPA/target.
Cover 1, in particular, was Tucker’s forte, as he averaged 1.52 EPA/target against the scheme. That’s despite catching balls from Jimmy Garoppolo, who had a -0.31 EPA/att against Cover 1, and Aidan O’Connell, who was a solid improvement over Garoppolo at 0.42 EPA/att. Meanwhile, current Raiders starter Gardner Minshew posted a 0.91 EPA/att against Cover 1.
Tucker's median receiving yards in games where he played at least 20% of the offensive snaps was 26 yards. When he played at least 30% of the offensive snaps, his median was 44 yards!
With Hunter Renfrow out of the picture, I expect well over 30% of snaps for Tucker. As the third WR, there’s also a solid chance he catches just one long pass to clear this number.
Pick: Tre Tucker Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
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Nick Giffen's Cowboys vs Browns Best Bet: Risky Cowboys Bet Could Pay Off
By Nick Giffen
This could easily blow up in my face since the Cowboys have tremendous upside with Dak Prescott under center, but there is enough downside to bet on them to score the fewest points on Sunday at these odds.
The Cowboys put up just 10 points in two of 17 regular season games last year, with one of those two coming in as the second-lowest scoring team of the week. That was in a game against another stout defense (49ers).
Now the 'Boys face the Browns, who came out of the gates hot in 2023, shutting down opponents left and right. Cleveland allowed just 18 offensive points against in its first three games in its first year under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.
With the Browns’ defensive continuity from last year in both coaching and personnel, the Cowboys offense faces arguably their toughest test of the season in Week 1. This matchup could be problematic with the departure of Tony Pollard at RB, Michael Gallup at WR and along the offensive line.
The Cowboys also come in with the lowest luck team total of Week 1. One part of that is thanks to the Cowboys scoring the second-most points over expectation by Expected Score. The other part is because the Browns allowed the most points over expectation last year, in large part due to Cleveland’s offense allowing opposing defenses to score a league-high seven touchdowns – a stat surely to regress.
Pick: Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday — Cowboys (+1600)
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