NFL Props: Anytime Touchdown Scorers for Week 16 Sunday
Every week in the NFL, there’s an angle to be exploited, whether it's the spread, total, or player props.
This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown Scorer (ATD) market.
Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market based on the betting odds.
Let's dive into my NFL Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Scorer picks.
Week 16 Anytime Touchdown Previews
Jared Goff in a dome. That’s all you really need to know about Detroit in this one. The passing offense gets a huge bump when playing indoors with Goff having 19 passing TDs and six INTs indoors while only seven TD and four INT outdoors. This has been an ongoing trend with Goff ever since he arrived in Detroit, which is why all the top starters for the Lions like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jamhyr Gibbs all have odds at +125 or lower.
With the Vikings ranking fifth in DVOA vs. the deep pass (not good for Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds) and 24th against the short pass, I’d go with St. Brown. I love LaPorta but after a three-TD game, his odds are steamed all the way down to -110 at some books.
Another rookie in WR Jordan Addison is coming off a two-TD game vs. the Broncos but at +220, I still like his value in a game where he should be heavily featured. He’s been playing over 90% of snaps in recent weeks, and while I love Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson, they’re both listed at +150 or lower.
Verdict: Amon-Ra St. Brown +140 (bet365) & Jordan Addison +240 (bet365)
I can’t believe I’m betting on multiple Jets to score a TD in a game this year. But if QB Zach Wilson and this offense fail to move the ball through the air in this matchup, then Wilson should never be allowed to play in the NFL again. When matching up vs. Washington this season, all but four QBs have thrown for at least two TDs. The Commanders rank 32nd in DVOA vs. the pass.
That’s why Jets WR Garrett Wilson should be on everyone’s radar to score a TD this week. The Commanders have allowed 24 TD to WRs this year and rank last in DVOA against WR1s. He only saw four targets last week but at least two of them were in the red zone.
On the flipside, don’t bank on Commanders WRs in this matchup. The Jets secondary has only allowed four TDs to WRs this year (first in NFL), and while I expect QB Sam Howell to test them, he leads the NFL in interceptions. It’ll likely be a pick before it’s a contested TD catch.
Hopefully, Howell is a bit more conservative, and if he is, RB2 Antonio Gibson could be a decent option with check downs and screen passes. He caught five passes last week with RB Brian Robinson sidelined and the Jets have allowed the fifth-most targets and TD catches to RBs this season.
Verdict: Garrett Wilson +210 (Caesars) & Antonio Gibson +220 (FanDuel)
The Panthers are coming off a win in a game in which they didn’t score a single TD. They have 11 passing TDs on the year and Andy Dalton threw two of them. I think what I’m trying to say here is betting on Carolina pass-catchers is a tough sell. The ATD odds likely won’t reflect what we’re seeing on the field. Even against a Packers team that ranks 29th in DVOA vs. the pass, you’re asking for trouble backing Carolina scorers.
That being said, I’m all about trouble if a sportsbook will give me TE Tommy Tremble at +700. He hasn’t scored in a few weeks but he’s their TE1 now with Hayden Hurst out and the Packers rank 30th in DVOA vs. TEs.
The Panthers defense has been awful against the run. The only team that didn’t seem to get the memo was the Falcons because head coach Arthur Smith is incompetent and doesn’t understand the talent he has on his roster.
Packers coach Matt LaFleur isn’t perfect but he’s not that stupid. He’ll be feeding RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as much as possible along with designed runs for speedy rookie WR Jayden Reed.
Verdict: Tommy Tremble +850 (FanDuel) & Jayden Reed +165 (DraftKings)
Given the playoff stakes in this game for both teams, this will likely be a tight game with both teams trying to limit mistakes (looking at you, Joe Flacco).
I’m going with the guys who got them here in Jerome Ford at +175 and Dalton Schultz at +350. Ford has been seeing the majority of the work in the passing game and has gotten first crack at the goal-line carries in each of the last two games. Schultz is now off the injury report for the Texans and leads the team with 14 red-zone targets, including two last week with Case Keenum at QB.
Verdict: Jerome Ford +175 (FanDuel) & Dalton Schultz +350 (Caesars)
The Falcons finally put everyone out of their misery and named QB Taylor Heinicke as the starter for the remainder of the year. The unfortunate part is the small sample size we saw in his time as the QB didn't lend himself to a clear top target in this offense. It also doesn’t help that head coach Arthur Smith seems to flip-flop on RB usage each week like an idiot.
The Falcons are one of the few teams I’m willing to pass on for ATDs this week but if you absolutely must, just bet Drake London TD at +220. The Colts have allowed a WR1 to score in three of their last four games.
I said last week not to bet on Colts passing TDs because Gardner Minshew only had one multi-TD passing game in his previous five games. How did he respond? By throwing three TDs against a top-seven DVOA pass defense in the Steelers.
The man brings chaos to nearly any game he plays. WR Michael Pittman may not play and stud RB Jonathan Taylor is expected to return. Those are the two most consistent Colts when they do play. At this point, just throw a dart at Minshew since the Falcons have allowed five rushing TDs to QBs this season.
Verdict: Drake London +220 (bet365) & Gardner Minshew +750 (FanDuel)
With QB Geno Smith back for the Seahawks, the passing offense should see a bit better this week, even if it wasn’t a complete drop off with Drew Lock in their latest affair. I’d just ride with WR DK Metcalf at +160 given the Titans rank 31st in the NFL vs. WR1s, and Metcalf has five TDs in his last five games.
Although they gave up some TDs recently to RBs, I don’t trust opposing runners vs. the Titans. If you want to bet Kenneth Walker at +125, I don't hate it, but don’t be shocked if he gets gobbled up at the goal line.
The Seahawks run defense should be easily exploitable as they’ve allowed the third-most rushing TDs in the NFL (19). The issue here is RB Derrick Henry has become completely unreliable, but his TD odds are still priced like he’s in the running for the OPOY award.
I’d rather take a swing on his backup Tyjae Spears at +350, as he’s been splitting work with Henry in neutral game scripts, and will certainly be on the field more with Tennessee likely playing from behind again in this one.
Verdict: DK Metcalf +165 (FanDuel) & Tyjae Spears +400 (DraftKings)
The days of Mike Evans ATD prices in the range of +150 to +175 are LONG gone. The best odds are around +120 this week and he still might score with the way QB Baker Mayfield is throwing the ball.
Last week, Ravens TE Isaiah Likely TD hit for us vs. the Jaguars because they are awful at defending TEs, and rank in the bottom-10 in targets, yards and TDs against the position.
Now, we may need to go back to the well and take Bucs TE Cade Otton. He played 95% of snaps in nearly every game this year, and while he had a TD vultured by Ko Kieft last week vs. the Falcons, I still expect Otton to be involved in the red zone.
I really don’t know what to make of this Jaguars offense lately, but I know that I won’t be banking on rushing TDs vs. the Buccaneers. RB Travis Etienne is averaging less than four yards per carry in his last five games, with only two touchdowns during that span.
At -120, I’d rather bank on the likes of WR Calvin Ridley at +210. Ridley has been targeted eight times in the red zone over the last three games, and the Bucs are 24th in DVOA vs. WR1s.
Without Christian Kirk, Jacksonville will need to rely heavily on Ridley. If Trevor Lawrence doesn’t play, I’d say to punt on Jacksonville TD scorers this week.
Verdict: Cade Otton +340 (Caesars) & Calvin Ridley +230 (FanDuel), if Lawrence plays
A game featuring the highest total of the week typically has most of the top options steamed and this one is no different with four players at minus odds to score, and six under +200.
While I’m sure those six will have plenty of opportunity, Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson is my target at +225. Ferguson has 24 RZ targets this season, which is second in the NFL only behind teammate WR CeeDee Lamb, who’s listed at -120 to score.
Ferg’s 12 targets inside the 10-yard line ranks second in NFL and the Dolphins are 26th in DVOA vs the TE.
The Cowboys defense is tough if they can get to the QB, but the Dolphins quick strike offense and efficient run game could keep Dallas on its heels. I fully expect Miami to lean on RB Raheem Mostert and RB Devon Achane, but if WR Tyreek Hill is compromised in any way from the ankle injury, I’d consider WR Cedrick Wilson for a TD at +450.
Wilson played over 70% of snaps last week with Hill out, and he already has two TDs this season. There's also the fun “revenge” angle since he was a Cowboy from 2019-2021.
Verdict: Jake Ferguson +225 (bet365) & Cedrick Wilson +450 (BetMGM)
This one is tough because the Bears defense has been electric since acquiring Montez Sweat from the Commanders. And they’re playing a Cardinals team that has started fast, scoring first in each of the last four games, but they tend to fade down the stretch.
I bet Justin Fields last week at +270 to score vs. the Browns and while he didn’t get in, he almost had one on a QB sneak that was called back for a false start. Now, he’s back to +170 vs a defense that has allowed the fifth-most rushing TDs this year.
If you want to bet QB Kyler Murray to score a TD, he’s currently at his highest odds of the year at +320. I always love a good Kyler TD bet but this is a matchup where I prefer TE Trey McBride at +240.
The Bears rank bottom-10 in targets, catches and TDs against the TE position and McBride has seen nine or more targets in four of five games with Murray at QB.
Verdict: Justin Fields +170 (BetMGM) & Trey McBride +240 (bet365)
With Mason Rudolph at QB, it’s really hard to make a case for any of the Steelers' pass-catchers. In theory, you should want to bet WR Diontae Johnson at +300. He’s scored in three straight games but that was with Mitch Trubisky at QB. On the other hand, WR George Pickens is the deep threat but he might be in the dog house after missing a blocking assignment.
The Bengals play man coverage at a top-10 rate in the NFL. They’re also 22nd in DVOA vs. the deep ball and Pickens has the higher ADOT of the two. With both at +300, another option is to take both for 0.5U touchdowns, and if one scores, you’ll make 1U in profit. Another angle would be TE Pat Freiermuth at +470 since the Bengals rank 31st in DVOA against TE in 2023. Our own Nick Giffen loves Muth at those odds and has closer to +400 as fair value.
WR Ja’Marr Chase is a huge loss for the Bengals. His presence alone helped keep Cincy afloat by helping draw 1v1 coverage for other WRs like Tee Higgins (2 TD last week), or giving RB Joe Mixon wider lanes to run if defenses aren’t stacking the box with eight defenders. If I’m betting a Bengal, I’m likely leaning to QB Jake Browning to score another TD at +700 but don’t feel great about it.
Verdict: Diontae Johnson +280 (FanDuel) & Pat Freiermuth +400 (Caesars), each 0.5 unit
This is the Gabe Davis game. The WR2 hasn’t done much in this offense with only three targets in the last two games and only two TDs in the last eight games. However, I like Davis to get back on track because the Chargers defense is TERRIBLE, especially their secondary.
Not only did they allow 62 points to the Raiders last week, but they also allowed four passing TDs in the process. The Bolts have allowed 18 TDs to WRs on the season (bottom-3 in NFL), and Davis is much better against zone than man-to-man. Well, guess what type of defense the Chargers predominantly play? If you said man-to-man, then you haven’t been paying attention.
The Chargers are in shambles. They just fired their coach and they could potentially be missing their best WR in Keenan Allen, I’m riding with WR Josh Palmer at +375. He caught a long TD last week once the game was already out of reach, and this game will likely be another trailing game-script for the Bolts.
Verdict: Gabe Davis +260 (FanDuel) & Josh Palmer +375 (bet365)
