NFL spreads for Week 1 have been available since May, giving bettors plenty of runway to make their picks and shape odds for Sunday's slate of season-opening games.
However, with very little new or meaningful data to crunch over the past four months, recreational bettors tend to overly rely on performance from last season when making NFL spread picks for Week 1.
Historically, this has resulted in early-season value for bettors willing to take positions on the previous season's worst teams, even though that's not the easiest way to apply one's bankroll.
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NFL Spread Picks for Week 1
Since the start of the 2005 NFL season, teams that won six or fewer games the previous year are 151-106-5 (58.8%) against-the-spread (ATS) as underdogs in Weeks 1-2 of a new season.
This ATS record is even better if we look just at Week 1, improving to 81-54-2 (60%) ATS.
Spoiler alert: Sportsbooks are smart and oddsmakers understand the tendencies of the majority of bettors.
So why not shade NFL spreads for Week 1 knowing that the public wants no part of last year's cellar-dwellers and force them to take the favorites at even worse prices?
As of the time of writing, here are the NFL spread picks for Week 1 that currently match this historically-profitable strategy:
- Colts (+4.5) vs. Jaguars
- Cardinals (+7) at Commanders
- Rams (+5) at Seahawks
- Raiders (+3.5) at Broncos
- Texans (+9.5) at Ravens
Please note that NFL odds for Week 1 for the above games are also consensus spreads, meaning value-minded bettors can find even better numbers by taking a few extra minutes to shop for the best lines.
