NFL Week 13 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

We have what is shaping up as the Game of the Year on deck in the NFL this week with the 49ers visiting the Eagles on Sunday. In this Week 13 NFL betting primer, we go into that game extensively and also discuss unders, Patriots' woes, Saints' struggles and much more.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to Week 13 of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Dec. 3, 12p ET.

Under the Radar

What a Run

• Unders in standalone games are 34-13 (72.3%) this year, including 29-9 at night.
• Unders on Sunday and Monday nights are 23-3 this year, 49-17 the last two years and have cashed in 15 straight. Dating back to last year, regular-season SNF/MNF unders are 32-3 in their last 35 games.
• Totals of 37 or less are 22-4-1 to the under since 2020 and 38 or less is 32-11-1 to the under.
• Unders are 106-73-1 (59.2%) overall this season — the best start through 12 weeks in the Wild Card era.

Dog Masks

Pennsylvania Avenue

A very unique spot for the Eagles (+2.5) Sunday vs. 49ers.
+ Philly would be the fourth team with a 90%+ win percentage in Game 12 or later to be a home underdog in the last 20 years.
+ 2 of the previous 3 were due to backup QBs being installed in the last week of the season.
+ The only non-backup QB was Ben Roethlisberger in 2005 AFC Title game loss (+2.5) vs. NE.

22 Years Later

A Unique Spot

Bill Belichick hasn’t been a home underdog vs. a team that is under .500 SU since Week 2, 2001 against the 0-1 Jets, who closed -1.5 and won 10-3. This was the game Drew Bledsoe got knocked out and led to Tom Brady’s first start.

• Patriots are 2-9 ATS this season, worst record in the NFL.
• Patriots haven’t started 2-9 ATS since 1981. That season, NE started 2-9 ATS and ended 3-13 ATS. No Patriots team has ever started 2-10 ATS.
• Patriots have lost 4 straight ATS. Patriots haven’t lost 5 straight ATS within the same season since losing 6 in a row at the end of the 2007-08 Super Bowl campaign.

50 Burger

Higher Totals

We’ve had just 10 games close with a total of 50 or more this year. Unders are 8-2 in those games, plus 26-12 to under last two seasons. The 10 games closing 50 or more for a total through 12 weeks are the fewest since 2010.

Super Problems

Saints Home Struggles

Saints are 0-4 ATS at home this season (first 0-4 ATS home start for Saints since 2004). Only Washington also has 0 ATS wins at home this season (0-4-1 ATS) and New Orleans has lost 6 straight ATS at home dating back to last season.

• Saints haven’t lost 6 straight ATS at home since 2014-15.
• Saints haven’t lost 7 straight home games ATS since 1979-80 seasons (lost 8 straight ATS). 1980 is the Saints last 0-5 ATS home start, too (started 0-6 ATS at home).
• Saints are 5-14 ATS at home since 2021, worst record in the NFL

You're Fired!

Interim Time

Thirty-six teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-19 straight up (SU) and 20-16 against the spread (ATS).

A 55.6% ATS win rate might not look great, but those teams had a 93-244-3 SU record (27.6%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 125-209-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.

Jake From Cincinnati

Streak Breaker?

Bengals are 1-25 straight up in road/neutral night games over the last 25 years. They are currently on a 16-game SU losing streak in this spot — last win in Philly: 2012. Bengals coach Zac Taylor is just 4-20 SU without Joe Burrow as his QB.

Seahawks at Cowboys | Thursday, Nov. 30

8:20 p.m. ET | Amazon

DAL -9.5 | 47.5

• NFL first-half unders are now 90-67-3 in night games since 2021, including 25-19-1 on TNF and 31-18-1 on MNF in that span.
• Thursday home teams are just 30-35 SU, 25-40 ATS since 2020, including 22-35 ATS in night Thursday games (worst of any day of week for home teams at night).
  Since 2020, Thursday home teams at night 23-35 ATS. All other days of the week, 82-74-3 ATS.
• Bet home teams on Thursday night? Since 2020, they are only 28-29 SU; they are 94-65 SU on all other nights.

Seahawks

• Geno Smith is 21-17-2 ATS as a dog, but only 10-13 ATS as a favorite.
• Smith has performed well off a loss. He’s 20-15 ATS. After a SU win, he’s only 9-13-2 ATS.
• Pete Carroll teams usually start slow before they get going…
  Carroll in Weeks 1 and 2: 11-16-1 ATS
  Carroll in Week 3 on: 111-94-7 ATS
• Carroll is 54-40-3 ATS as an underdog. Carroll has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in seven straight years leading up to this season (2-3 in 2023)
• The divisional battles might take it out of Seattle. They are 6-14 ATS after facing an NFC West opponent under Carroll since 2020, making him second-least profitable coach ATS in that spot
• When Carroll is on the road vs. a team who is over .500 SU, they are 26-20-1 ATS, including 8-7-1 ATS in EST game.
• Carroll has never closed above a 7.5-pt underdog in a night game – 37 total night games in his career.
  Carroll is 35-19-3 ATS in night games, best of any coach over the last 20 years. He is just 8-12 ATS at night since 2019.
• The offensive bounce back hasn’t boded well for Carroll and the Seahawks. They are just 9-14-2 ATS after scoring 13 points or less in their previous game since 2014.
  Though, SEA is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in that spot this season, scoring 37, 20 and 29 points in both games.
• Seahawks tend to perform well for Pete Carroll after a home loss. They are 21-11-1 ATS, covering by 6 PPG.
  Last 20 years, most profitable coaches ATS after a home loss. Carroll would pass Arians with a cover in Week 13.

1. Bill Belichick, 2. Bruce Arians, 3. Carroll

• Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 145-174-13 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 13: SEA, PIT, DEN
• Good teams who score fewer than 14 points are good bets the following week. Teams who are over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 points are 103-77-6 ATS last ten years.
  Week 13: SEA, CLE
• Teams who lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 110-74-4 ATS (59.8%) the ensuing week over the last 20 years.
  Week 13: SEA, WAS, CLE

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Cowboys

• Since 2021, Cowboys are 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in night games, the most profitable team ATS at night in that span.
• When Dak Prescott is a favorite at night, he is 17-8-1 ATS in his career.
  Last 20 years, that is the thirrd-best mark in the NFL: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Prescott
  When Prescott is favored by over 5 points at night he is 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS
• Prescott has lost his last six starts at night as an underdog dating back to 2019.
  At night, Prescott is 21-5 SU as a favorite and 3-8 SU as an underdog.
• Mike McCarthy is very much like Prescott, playing to his role in night games. He’s 31-16-1 ATS as a favorite, 13-21-2 ATS as a dog at night.
  McCarthy’s 31-16-1 ATS mark as a favorite at night is most profitable last 20 years
• Overall, Prescott is 24-13 SU, 22-14-1 ATS in night games.
  He’s sixth-most profitable ATS last 20 years at night: Peyton  Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Russel Wilson, Carson Wentz, Prescott
• Cowboys' eight wins are over teams that are a combined 24-55, and none of the eight have a winning record. The 49ers and Eagles are the only winning teams the Cowboys have played this season, and Dallas lost both games.
• CeeDee Lamb is having an unreal season for the Cowboys.
  DAL records through 11 games: second-most receptions (78) and third-most receiving yards (1,066)
• Dak is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss last two seasons and 7-9 ATS off a SU win.
  7-0 ATS mark is best in the NFL – QBs 3-0 ATS or better off loss last two years: Prescott, DeSean Watson (4-0), Sam Darnold (3-0)
• Precott tends to perform well as a big favorite. He’s 35-7 SU, 30-11-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more
  His 30-11-1 ATS mark is second-most profitable last 20 years of 144 QBs behind just Tom Brady.
  He’s 24-4 SU, 19-8-1 ATS as a favorite at home of 6 or more points.
• Prescott does well vs. bad teams. He is 35-10 SU, 31-13-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 21-23 SU, 17-27 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
  The 30-13-2 ATS mark is second-best in the last 20 years behind just Tom Brady.
  The 17-27 ATS mark is 257th of 292 QBs in the last 20 years.
• Cowboys are coming off a big win. Under McCarthy, Dallas is 6-10 ATS after winning by 20 points or more – including 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in this spot (won last two). Last two seasons, Dallas is 5-9 ATS after winning by double digits.
• Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson has 18 targets in the red zone this year, tied for most in the NFL with Davante Adams.
• Can the Cowboys keep it going? Last three seasons …
  After a loss SU: 12-1 ATS
  After a win SU: 18-14 ATS
• If you bet on Prescott to throw an INT in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
  This season, you would be down 1.8 units betting a “yes” INT for Prescott.
• Cowboys are off three straight big wins, winning by 20+ points in all three games.
  The Cowboys' streak of three straight wins by 20+ points is tied for franchise record (they’ve never done it in four straight). The all-time record is 5 straight done by 1999 Rams.
  Only four franchises have had a streak of four such 20+ point blowouts since 2000
  Eagles: 2004 and 2017
  Patriots: 2007 and 2014
  Colts: 2004
  Broncos: 2002
• Teams off three straight wins of 20+ points are 27-14 SU, 16-24-1 ATS since 1990. The under is also 28-13 in those games.
• Cowboys have won 5 straight home games by 20+ points – the longest such streak since Vikings in 2009-10. The record for such wins is 7 by the 1999 Rams.
  The Cowboys are the first team in NFL history to win their first 5 home games of a season by 20+ points each.
• Prescott is 5-8-1 ATS in MST or PST time zones, but he’s 58-41-1 ATS in EST and CST.
• Cowboys have won 7 games this season by 20 points or more, three more than any other team. The record for a single-season in the Super Bowl era is 10 by 2007 Patriots. Only three teams have had 8 or more: 2007 Patriots (10), 1999 Rams (9), 1996 Packers (8)
• Cowboys have covered 6 straight home games dating back to last season. Dallas is 11-2 ATS at home in their last 13 games.
  Dallas’ 6-game ATS home win streak is their longest since 1999, when they also covered (and won) six straight.
  Cowboys last 7-game ATS home win streak came between 1991 and 1992 (also won 7 straight SU).
  Cowboys have won 13 in a row at AT&T Stadium SU, the longest home winning streak in franchise history and longest active home winning streak in the NFL.
  Since 2010, only five teams have had a 14+ home win streak: 21 2017-19 NE, 14 2014-16 CAR, 16 2013-14 NE, 14 2012-13 SEA, 16 2010-12 BAL
• This line initially opened at Dallas -3.5 and has ballooned to -8 and higher at some shops. It has been profitable to follow the line with Prescott. His teams are 21-9 ATS when the line moves against him (ex. -5 to -7) by two points or more. When the line moves at all against Prescott between the opening and closing lines, his teams are 31-19-1 ATS in his career.
• Prescott is 27-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,459), 36-38-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$413)
• Last 20 years, Dallas is 12-7 SU, 9-9-1 ATS the game after Thanksgiving. The game after Thanksgiving at home, the Cowboys have won five consecutive games SU in the last 20 years (4-1 ATS).
  Cowboys have won 7 of their last 9 games SU the game after Thanksgiving
• Good third-down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third-down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 320-252-19 ATS (55.9%) last 20 years.
  Week 13: DAL, PHI, KC

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Chargers at Patriots | Sunday, Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET | CBS

LAC -5.5 | 39

Chargers

• West Coast teams traveling East has been a good omen lately.
  = PST teams have had success playing in EST recently, going 49-33-3 ATS since 2019.
  = Teams to travel from PST to EST have had 1H success going 107-69-3 1H ATS since 2017.
  = PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 70-43-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
  = West coast teams that travel east after a home game have performed well, going 89-65-4 ATS (57.5%) last 10 years.
• Brandon Staley as a 'dog 3 or more: 10-12-1 ATS (8-7 ATS more than 3-point favorite)
• Staley on road: 13-10 ATS, 6-7 ATS as road fav, 3-4 ATS as road favorite of 3 or more
• Chargers in Justin Herbert's 61 career starts, including playoffs
  Points scored 1,526
  Points allowed 1,542
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more: Jets, Chargers – 4
• The Chargers have played 29 games since the start of last season, and 20 of them have finished within seven points.
  21 of the Chargers last 30 games have been decided by 7 points or less dating back to the Week 18, 2021 Raiders loss.
• With the Chargers 4-7, still worth noting Justin Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the league this year.
  Herbert is tied for 10th in: Completions, pass yards, pass TDs, pass 1D, passer rating, QBR, “on target” percentage throws
• Herbert’s W/L record has been a product of his defense in his career.
  When his defense allows 27 points or more, LAC is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
  When his defense allows fewer than 27 points, LAC is 23-7 SU, 22-7-1 ATS
• Herbert is 17-13 ATS on the road, and only 14-16-1 ATS at home in his career.
  Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons. They are 2-3 ATS this season.
  Chargers have finished above .500 ATS once at home in the last 10 years. They are 2-4 ATS this season.
• Herbert by time zone:
  EST/CST: 14-8 ATS (just 2-3 ATS this season)
  MST/PST: 17-21-1 ATS
• Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite:
  Underdog: 13-10 ATS, 19-4 in 6-point teasers
  Favorite: 18-19-1 ATS, 27-8-1 in 6-point teasers
• Herbert is 34-27 1H ATS, he’s 17-12 1H ATS since start of last season.
• Herbert is 18-38-5 against the second-half spread in his career.
  Since 2005, he’s 254th of 256 QBs in 2H ATS profitability.
  He’s 8-25-2 2H ATS when leading at HT (-$1,764, third-worst in NFL since 2005)

Herbert 2H ATS Career:
2023: 3-7-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS

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Patriots

• Patriots are 2-9 ATS this season, worst in the NFL.
  Patriots haven’t started 2-9 ATS since 1981. In 1981, NE started 2-9 ATS and ended 3-13 ATS. No Patriots team has ever started 2-10 ATS.
  Patriots' worst 12-game ATS starts: 3-9 ATS (1981, 1987, 1990)
• Patriots are 4-14 SU, 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
  Patriots have lost 4 straight ATS. Patriots haven’t lost 5 straight ATS within the same season since losing six straight at the end of the 2007-08 Super Bowl campaign.
• Patriots have struggled vs. the best and done well against some of the bad teams.
  Since 2019, Patriots are 16-23 SU, 14-23-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, second-worst ATS mark in the NFL just ahead of the Bears
  Since 2019, they are 19-9 SU, 16-12 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, including 10-9 ATS since 2020.
  In that same span, they are 10-22-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs previous season, third-worst mark in the NFL (SEA, CHI). When they face a team who didn’t make the playoffs, they are 24-21-1 ATS in that span.
• Between 2016-22, Patriots were 32-13 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU, they are 0-4 ATS this season (lost 5 straight ATS).
• Since 2021, Patriots are 9-13 SU at home. Between 2000 and 2020, NE was 151-37 SU (80.3%) at home.
• Bet dogs in low total games. NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 173-119-6 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 36-25-2 ATS this season.
  Week 13: CLE, ARI, CAR, NYJ, NE, CIN
• Tough to play off a party city. Last 5 years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 99-134-7 ATS (42.5%).
  Week 13: KC, NE, NO
• Bill Belichick hasn’t been a home underdog vs. a team who is under .500 SU since Week 2, 2001 against the 0-1 Jets. NY closed -1.5 in NE and won 10-3. This was the game Drew Bledsoe got knocked out and led to Tom Brady’s first start.
• Since Brady left, Belichick and NE are 27-35 SU, 26-35-1 ATS since 2020. Belichick as head coach without Brady: 45-54 SU with NE, 37-45 SU with CLE, for a combined 82-99 SU.
• Belichick as home dog with Patriots: 10-13 SU, 13-10 ATS. Belichick broke his 8-game SU losing streak as a home dog vs. Bills a few weeks ago.
  He’s 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS as a home dog with Mac Jones
  He’s 9-6 SU, 11-4 ATS as a home dog with all other QBs
• Since 2021, Belichick is 4-18 SU as an underdog (16-8 SU as a favorite). Between 2003-15, he was 25-22 SU as an underdog.
• Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under
  Under 40: 36-14-1 ATS (72%)
  Under 42: 55-30-2 ATS (64.7%)
  Under 45: 96-65-5 ATS (59.6%)
  45+: 110-90-5 ATS (55%)

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Lions at Saints | Sunday, Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET | FOX

DET -4.5 | 47.5

Lions

• Lions are 7-4 ATS this season
  7-3 ATS is best Lions 10-game start since 2010 (also 7-3 ATS)
  The Lions have been 7-4 to start the season in 3 of their last four seasons and five times total since 2010
• Jared Goff and the Lions will play their final 7 games in a dome.
  GB, at NO, CHI, DEN, at MIN, at DAL, MIN
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 30-16 ATS (20-8 ATS last 3 seasons)
  Outdoor: 34-34-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in November or earlier | 9-14-1 ATS in December/January)
• Lions are -1000 to win the NFC North. DET was +135 to win division entering season – shortest division odds for DET last 20 years. Lions were favored to win NFC North in preseason for first time since current iteration of division in 2002. Last time they had best odds for division team was 1992
• Goff is 14-8 ATS off a SU loss with the Lions, including 11-4 ATS when that game is played at home.
  When Goff’s teams are above .500 SU and coming off a loss, he’s 12-6-1 ATS
• Goff is 19-8-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Betting teams after a loss as a big favorite has been a good spot. Teams off a loss as a 7-point favorite or higher are 55.3% ATS next week last 20 years and 42-35-1 ATS since 2018.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last 5 years (46-27-1 ATS, +$1,569).
• Lions are 30-15 ATS (66.7%) since the start of the 2021 season, second-most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,234). Dallas is best.
  Lions are 3 wins away from 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (7-4 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
  Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
• Goff is 20-10 ATS at home since 2020, third-most profitable QB in the NFL (+$852)
  Jalen Hurts: 17-6-1 (+$955)
  Tua Tagovailoa: 16-6 (+$858)
  Goff on the road since 2020: 16-12 ATS
• Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
  In 2023, he is +4 units betting his "yes" INT prop.
  If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• The Lions closed as a FG favorite or higher on the road for the first time against the Bucs on Oct. 15, since 2020 at Carolina. The last time they closed above a FG favorite on the road was back in 2019 against the Commanders. They were last a road favorite of over 4 points back in 2014 against the Bears.
• Goff on extended rest (8+ days): 15-11-2 ATS (not including Week 1)
  Goff at home on extended rest with Lions: 5-1 SU/ATS, covering by 10.5 PPG
• Dating back to last season, Goff has covered 7-1 in his last 8 games vs. above .500 SU opponents, going 12-4 ATS in this spot since 2021 – third-best mark in the NFL, behind Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts
  Since the start of 2021, Goff is 10-2 ATS vs. teams with a 66% win percentage or higher.
• After Thanksgiving game coming up for the Lions. Detroit has won and covered three straight game after Thanksgiving (lost 3 straight SU/ATS prior).
  Since 2005, Lions are 5-13 SU, 9-9 ATS the game after Thanksgiving.
  In the Wild Card era, Lions are 2-14 SU when they play on the road the game after Thanksgiving (they are 2-2 SU though in this spot since 2016).

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Saints

• Saints have lost three straight ATS. They haven’t lost 4 straight since 2018-19, when they lost 7 straight between two seasons.
  Saints are 0-4 ATS at home this season (first 0-4 ATS home start for Saints since 2004). Only Washington has 0 ATS wins at home this season (0-4-1 ATS) and NO has lost 6 straight ATS at home dating back to last season
  Saints haven’t lost 6 straight ATS at home since 2014-15.
  Saints haven’t lost 7 straight home games ATS since 1979-80 seasons (lost 8 straight ATS). 1980 is the Saints last 0-5 ATS home start, too (started 0-6 ATS at home).
• Saints are 5-14 ATS at home since 2021, worst record in the NFL
• Road Warriors. Here are the Saints ML record over the past few seasons, home vs. road.
  Last 3: Home: 8-11 SU | Road: 12-12 SU
  Last 5: Home: 21-17 SU | Road: 25-15 SU
• Dennis Allen-coached teams are just 13-21-1 ATS vs. teams who are under .500 SU on the season and just 4-12-1 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU on the season. Allen is under .500 ATS vs. teams who are over .500 SU in all five of his seasons as a head coach.
• In his career, Allen is 20-44 SU. His 31.3% win percentage is eighth-worst among all head coaches in the Wild Card era.
• Allen is a bit better with some prep.
  Short rest: 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS
  Normal rest: 10-27 SU, 12-25 ATS
  Extended rest + Week 1: 9-9 SU, 9-7-2 ATS
  He’s 11-35 SU, 14-32 ATS on short or normal rest as a head coach
• Allen is 23-39-2 ATS in his career as a coach.
  Allen’s 23-38-2 ATS mark is third-worst for any coach last 20 years:

1. Jon Gruden, 147. Mike Shanahan, 146. Dennis Allen

• In games where Derek Carr is a favorite or a small underdog, his teams have struggled.
  As favorite or underdog of 3 or less: 36-52-3 ATS
  Dog of more than 3 points: 34-29 ATS
• Carr covers vs. good defenses and tends to lose ATS vs. bad defenses. Based on how many PPG opposing defenses give up against Carr:
  Fewer than 21 PPG: 31-21 ATS
  21 PPG or more: 33-56-3 ATS
• Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime now for the 5th time in his career this year, and is still struggling to cover the spread. 26-34-2 ATS in those previous 4 seasons and 2-8-1 ATS in 2023 with Saints.
  15: 8-8 ATS, 17: 5-8-2 ATS, 18: 6-10 ATS, 22: 7-8 ATS, 23: 2-8-1 ATS
• Saints are listed as home underdogs against the Lions, a better spot for Carr.
  Favorite: 19-37-2 ATS (worst of all QBs last 20 years)
  Underdog: 51-44-1 ATS
• Carr was 18-29-1 ATS as a favorite with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,182. Now with the Saints he is 1-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Carr hasn’t had a year above .500 ATS as a favorite since 2016
• Carr is 22-36-2 ATS on the road/neutral since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (123 of 123 QBs). He’s 22-24-1 ATS at home in that span.
• Superdome isn’t scary anymore. NO is 8-11 SU at home last three seasons – only three teams have fewer SU wins than that (HOU, ARI, CHI).
• Carr is facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season with the Packers – he is 33-56-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more. Of the 254 QBs in Bet Labs database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
• Tough to play off a party city. Last 5 years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 99-134-7 ATS (42.5%).
  Week 13: KC, NE, NO

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Falcons at Jets | Sunday, Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET | FOX

ATL -2 | 33.5

Falcons

• Totals of 37 or less are now 22-4-1 to the under since 2020 and 38 or less is 32-11-1 to the under
• Falcons are 3-8 ATS this season, fourth-worst record in the NFL ahead of only the Patriots, Panthers and Saints.
• The seesaw QB battle race in Atlanta is back to Desmond Ridder (ranks min. 50 QB plays)
  Ridder: 35th EPA/play, 14th success rate, 24th comp%
  Heinicke: 20th EPA/play, 33rd success rate, 43rd comp%
• Falcons are 3-6-2 on the first half moneyline this season
• Falcons are 4-12-4 1H ML, 4-16 1H ATS in their last 20 games.
  Their 8-20 1H ATS last two seasons is the worst in NFL
• Ridder is 2-9-2 straight up and 2-11 against the first half spread in his career. Falcons are failing to cover 1H spread by 5.27 PPG with Ridder at QB.
  1H points under Ridder: 3, 9, 7, 10, 14, 3, 3, 0, 7, 10, 10, 3, 14
  Dating back to college, Ridder is 2-13 1H ATS in his last 15 starts.
• Falcons have struggled ATS recently.
  They are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall dating back to last season.
  2-8 ATS last 10 games.
• Arthur Smith teams tend to fade late.
  September-October: 11-12 ATS
  November on: 7-14-1 ATS
  Smith is 6-6 ATS in first four games of the season – his teams are 12-20-1 ATS in game 5 forward.
• Falcons are 4-12-1 ATS after a SU win under Smith – 0-4 ATS this season.
  Ranks 135th of 143 coaches last 20 years and ranks last of 49 coaches since he was hired in 2021.
• Falcons continue their journey have playing zero games this season with a positive rest differential vs. their opponent.
  Played on road before game in London (Wk 3, 4) – they lost at Lions.
  7 of last 11 games on the road – they are 2-3 SU in this stretch.
  3 of last 4 games are on the road.
• Lowest Falcons Totals Last 20 Years
  31, 2005 at CHI. 16-3
  34.5, 2007 at JAC. 13-7
  34.5, 2007 at MIN, 24-3
• Ridder is 5-0 ATS vs. NFC South and 0-8 ATS vs. all other divisions.
  Most Profitable NFC South QBs ATS in Division Last 20 Years

1. Jake Delhomme, 2. Ridder (5-0 ATS), 3. Taysom Hill (5-0 ATS)

• Falcons have never had the lead at the half on the road with Ridder. They are 0-5-1 1H ML.

Ridder Home/Road NFL Career
Home Road/Neutral
W-L 6-1 1-5
ATS 3-4 2-4
Pass Rtg 89.1 76.8
TD-INT 8-6 1-2
Y/A 7.3 6.3
Comp% 66.8 62

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Jets

• Robert Saleh has coached four games on extended rest, Jets are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 14.67 PPG.
  Coaches 0-4 ATS or worse on extended rest last 20 years:
  Bill Callahan: 0-6 ATS, Saleh 0-5-1 ATS
• Jets have had bad offensive struggles this season which had led to Zach Wilson getting benched and now Tim Boyle starting.
  Jets as a team have 13 TD in 11 games, including 10 offensive TD in 11 games.
  Jets are first team since 2011 Jaguars and Rams to score 13 TD or less in their first 11 games.
  NYJ are 35-for-145 on third downs (24.1%). Through 11 games, that is the fourth-worst 3D% in the Wild Card era and worst since 2009 Chiefs.
• Wilson has 946 pass attempts in his career and 21 TD passes (2.2% TD pass percentage).
  No QB in the Super Bowl era has thrown that many pass attempts with that low a TD pass percentage. Lowest all-time minimum 500 attempts? Kenny Pickett at 1.8%.
• Boyle will be making his second start for the Jets this week. Here is how those backup QBs have performed in their second start for a team:
  Last 5 years + this year (since ‘19): 21-38 SU, 33-26 ATS
  Last 3 years + this year (since ‘21): 12-23 SU, 19-16 ATS
  Last year + this year (since ‘22): 10-15 SU, 15-10 ATS
• Fewest SU wins, teams with win total of 8.5 or more
  Jets, Chargers – 4
• Saleh and the Jets have struggled to win against good offensive teams.
  20 PPG or higher: 8-21 SU
  19.9 PPG or less: 6-7 SU
• With Aaron Rodgers hurt, the Jets start a “backup QB” for the rest of the season. Jets have struggled mightily through the years when they are forced to go to a backup QB. They are 6-31 SU, 13-23-1 ATS over the last decade when starting a backup QB.
• Bet dogs in low total games. NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 173-119-6 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 36-25-2 ATS this season.
  Week 13: CLE, ARI, CAR, NYJ, NE, CIN
• Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 134-105-4 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 13: NYJ, WAS, CIN
• Teams who were sacked 7+ times in their previous game are 91-118-5 ATS (43.5%) in their next game over the last 20 years.
  Week 13: NYJ
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 87-58-1 ATS (60%) since 2020.
  Week 13: ARI, WAS, NYJ
• Potential wind for ATL/NYJ game
  Games with 10+ mph winds are 17-5-1 to the under this year, going under the total by 5.3 PPG.
  Games with 10+ mph winds are 109-55-1 to the under in last 3 seasons and 190-126-1 since 2018. Over the last 20 years, these unders hit at a 57.1% rate.
• Jets are +1800 to make the playoffs right now. They haven’t made playoffs in 12 seasons – longest drought in NFL.

Longest Active Playoff Drought 4 Major Sports
12 – Jets
12 – Sabres

• Are the Jets the biggest flop ever? The Jets were 150-1 to win it all entering last season. They entered this year at 18-1. That big of a jump into inside 20-1 odds year-to-year has only been done three other times.
  All four teams are a combined 27-32 SU, 24-33-3 ATS

Biggest SB Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Odds Since Merger
1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200). 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, Miss
1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700). 10-6 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, L WC
1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200). 7-9 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, Miss
2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200). 4-7 SU, 4-6-1 ATS

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Cardinals at Steelers | Sunday, Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET | CBS

PIT -6.5 | 41

Cardinals

• Cardinals are 1 of 2 teams (Panthers) to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season.
• Welcome back, Kyler Murray. Cardinals went the first nine games of the season without being a public side once. The first two weeks with Murray, the public had bought into Arizona and they were 2-0 ATS.
• Were not the public side vs Rams and did not cover the spread
• Cardinals offense has been a rollercoaster this season. From Joshua Dobbs to Clayton Tune now to Murray, lets see if they can find some consistency.
  First three games: 11th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
  Next 6 games: 31st offensive EPA/play, 30th in off. success rate
  Week 10 on: 24th offensive EPA/play, 15th off. success rate
• Cardinals have struggled vs. NFC West recently. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games in the spot. Cardinals haven’t won or covered a home game vs. NFC West since October 2021
• Since Murray arrived in Arizona, he is 26-34-1 SU. All other QBs are 4-14 SU.
• Cardinals defense stinks.
  Pressure rate: 16.2% (T-32nd)
  Opp. first downs: 270 (32nd)
  EPA/play on D: 31st
  Opp. success rate: 32nd
• Murray has had success as an underdog and on the road and struggled as a favorite and at home.
  Dog: 22-13-2 ATS | Fav: 9-15 ATS
  Road: 18-9-2 ATS | Home: 13-19 ATS
• Here is how Murray has performed based on the strength of the opponent.
  vs. above .500 SU teams: 10-15-2 ATS
  vs. below .500 SU teams: 16-10 ATS
• Play 3 cold weather games this year: PIT, CHI, PHI on road in December
  Last 20 years, Cardinals are 15-24 SU in 50-degree or colder weather
• PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 70-43-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
• West Coast teams that travel east after a home game have performed well, going 89-65-4 ATS (57.5%) last 10 years.
• Bet dogs in low total games. NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 173-119-6 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 36-25-2 ATS this season.
  Week 13: CLE, ARI, CAR, NYJ, NE, CIN
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 87-58-1 ATS (60%) since 2020.
  Week 13: ARI, WAS, NYJ
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season, 149-123-6 ATS since 2015
  Week 13: CAR, ARI

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Steelers

• Another week, another one-score game. The Steelers are now 10-1 in their last 11 one-score games and 12-2 over their last 14 one-score games. Even dating back to 2021, Pittsburgh is 22-8-1 in one-score games.
• Steelers are the first team since 1933, when the NFL began tracking rushing and receiving statistics, to be outgained in each of their first eight games and still have a winning record.
  They’ve now done this through 10 games.
  Week 12 was the first game in which they outgained their opponent this season: 421-222
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 145-174-13 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 13: SEA, PIT, DEN
• Teams who average fewer than 17 PPG aren’t big favorites often.
  Only four times in the last five years has a team average 17 PPG or less been a favorite of 5 or more in December or later. Those teams are 0-4 ATS.
• Steelers have allowed 20 points or less in seven straight games. Pittsburgh had a streak of seven such games last year and they haven’t done it in eight straight since 2004.
• Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger: 37-23-3 ATS.
  Steelers under Tomlin without Big Ben or Pickett: 22-15-3 ATS
• Steelers are 31-47-1 1H ATS last 5 seasons under Tomlin, making him worst coach 1H ATS in that span.
• When Steelers close -3 or smaller, or as an underdog, they are 86-57-6 ATS under Tomlin
• All it took was one game. Steelers put up 422 yards of offense in OC Eddie Faulkner’s first game.
  Matt Canada in Pittsburgh. 45 games. 0 games with 400 yards of offense. 2 games with 30 points.
  The Steelers played 45 consecutive games without reaching 400 yards of offense. Their last game with 400+ yards prior to last week came in the Wild Card playoffs in 2020-21, the game before Canada was hired.
  45 games was the longest active streak in the NFL – longest streak since Rams in 2014-17 (46 games). They were sixth team last 20 years with this long of a streak.
• Pickett is 3-8 1H ATS this season, worst of any QB in the NFL.
• Teams to average fewer than 300 yds on the season and have 400+ yds in their previous game are 15-19-1 ATS in December or later and 6-12-1 ATS when playing at home.
• Over the last two seasons, Steelers are 15-6 SU/ATS with TJ Watt, 1-6 SU without him (2-4-1 ATS).
• Since T.J. Watt’s first game in 2017, Steelers are 67-43-2 SU, 59-51-2 ATS.
  They’ve played without him for just 11 games. Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU, 4-6-1 ATS in those games.
  Which means they are 65-33-2 SU, 54-45-1 ATS with Watt.
• As a favorite this season, Steelers are 3-1 ATS. Pittsburgh rarely covers as favorites in consecutive years. They were 4-2 ATS last year as favorites. Last b2b years above .500 ATS as favorites for Pittsburgh was in 2004-05.

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Colts at Titans | Sunday, Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET | CBS

IND -1 | 42

Colts

• Colts can go over their preseason win total of 6.5 this week. They would be the first team to go over their win total this season (Texans can go over this week as well).
  This would be their first win total over since 2020
• Colts are 9-2 to the team total over – most team total overs by any team this season. 1 of 4 teams with 8+ team total overs this season: IND, CLE, BAL, DAL
  Colts went 5-12 team total overs last season
• Still Gardner Minshew time in Indy. Minshew is 6-11 SU, 7-10 ATS in “toss up” games – a spread of 4 or less
• Colts got Jonathan Taylor back in the mix a bit, but he is now sidelined for a few weeks.
  Colts when Taylor gets 10+ carries: 24-19-1 SU
  Fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play: 6-12 SU
• Minshew has now won consecutive games SU within the same season for the first time since October 2019. This is Minshew’s first three-game SU win streak in his career.
• Minshew is 5-15 SU in his last 20 starts. He’s 9-11 ATS in his last 20 starts.
• Colts QBs have struggled in the back up role. They are 8-17 SU (13-12 ATS) since 2017.
• When Minshew’s opponent scores more than 20 points, he is 1-16 SU.
• Minshew is 7-11 SU when he throws 2+ passing TDs in a game in his career.
• Minshew has made five starts where his opponent is on short rest since 2020 and his teams are 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS.
• Tough spot for Colts. Teams who are listed as a favorite after winning just 4 games or less the season prior are just 212-255-14 ATS last 20 years, including 37-50-2 ATS since 2019.
• Teams to open as underdogs and close as a favorite have historically struggled to cover that number. They are 52-87 ATS since 2019 and 22-40 ATS last two seasons.
  Week 13: HOU, SF, IND, JAC
• Colts had the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).
  Their third time at 100-1 or higher since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
  Not to mention, their win total of 6.5 was their lowest since 2012.
  Colts are 6-5 SU this year entering Week 13.
• Minshew is 3-9 SU vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or less on the season.
  Home dog: 12-8 SU/ATS
  Home dog in AFC: 1-2 SU/ATS. Beat Texans, two losses vs. IND

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Titans

• Vrabel as an underdog: 25-27 SU, 29-22-1 ATS, including 25-15-1 ATS when the spread is +3 or higher.
  Minimum 20 games as an underdog, only Vrabel, Matt LaFleur, Mike Tomlin and Bill Cowher are at or over .500 SU as an underdog in the Wild Card era.
  In 6 seasons with Titans, Vrabel has never finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog (4-5 ATS this season).
• Vrabel as a home dog: 12-8 SU/ATS
  7-3 SU since 2021
• Vrabel is 13-11-1 ATS as an underdog off of a SU loss. He’s covered 4-3 in his last 7 games in this spot.
• Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. Colts.
• Will Levis is 0-5 against the second half spread in his 5 starts.
• Against divisional opponents, Vrabel is 19-13 SU, 17-15 ATS.
• Of 41 quarterbacks with at least 100 plays this season, the Titans' rookie quarterback has the 9th-lowest success rate. Levis’ comp % of 62.3% is 38th of those 41 QBs
• In close spread games, Mike Vrabel has performed well. Spread of 3 or less: 21-17 SU, 19-17-2 ATS, including 4-2 ATS in that spot this season.
• Titans have now gone 30 straight games without scoring 30 points.
  Longest active streak in the NFL and longest streak in franchise history
  NYG streak of 43 straight games was last one broken this high in 2022.
• Vrabel is 38-29 SU in September, October and November in his career (16-15 SU in December on).

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Dolphins at Commanders | Sunday, Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET | FOX

MIA -9 | 49.5

Dolphins

• Since 2021, Dolphins are 4-11 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 17-7 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
  The Dolphins haven't beaten a team with a winning record since they beat the Bills in Week 3 of last season (9/25/22) – Only one team don't have a SU win over a team with a winning record in this span == Dolphins: 0-7 SU
• Dolphins offense is still highest in the NFL at 6.86 YPP. Now the third-highest through 11 games all-time, ahead of just 2000 Rams (7.3) and 2018 Chiefs (7.1).
  Usually teams with early year high power offenses come back to reality. Teams who average 6+ YPP in November or later are 28-40-2 ATS as a favorite in the last 20 years.
• The Dolphins are still averaging 30.8 PPG this season, second best in the NFL, entering Week 13 behind Cowboys
  Teams to average 30 PPG or more in 10th game or later are 130-153-8 ATS last 20 years. Those teams are 52-72-5 ATS when not playing at home.
• Tua Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 16-6 ATS at home and 10-12-1 ATS away from home in his career.
  Dolphins haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015
  Miami is 37-21-3 ATS since 2016 at home – best home team ATS in that span
• Tagovailoa by time zone: 23-10-1 ATS in EST | 3-6 ATS all other time zones
• We’ve had just 10 games close with a total of 50 or more this year. Unders are 8-2 in those games, including 26-12 to under last two seasons.
  We’ve had just 10 games close 50 or more for a total through 12 weeks, fewest since 2010
• Tyreek Hill watch …
  Hill has 1,324 receiving yards through 11 games – most for any player since 1961. Hill is 676 receiving yards shy of 2,000 and 641 yards shy of breaking the single-season record (1,964) by Calvin Johnson in 2012.
  Through 11 games last year, Hill had 1,233 rec yds (that season is 14th-most thru 11 games all-time).
  Hill was +950 to lead NFL in receiving yards entering this year (No. 3 choice).
• When Tagovailoa faces an opposing offense average 21 PPG or less, he is 14-5 SU, including 13-1 SU in his last 14 in this spot.
• Tagovailoa is 11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS as a favorite of over 4 points. In his career, he has avoided the big upset bug.
• Tagovailoa faces a pretty good “sack defense” this week in the Jets.
  Here is how the Dolphins have performed based on the opponents sack percentage (The opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense). The Jets are at 3.6% currently.
  3.5% or higher: 9-8 SU
  Less than 3.5 %: 17-8 SU
• Tagovailoa vs. NFC:
  9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS
  3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in last 6
• Tagovailoa has played 8 games off extended rest during his career, he is 6-2 SU, and 4-4 ATS in those games.
• Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from you — ex. -3 to -6 — are 31-34-2 ATS this season – 70-94-3 ATS since start of last year and 127-158-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 13: DAL, HOU, LAR, SF, MIA, IND, TB, LAC, JAC
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 104-47-1 (67.8%) since 2018, including 28-5 so far this season.

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Commanders

• Teams who lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 110-74-4 ATS (59.8%) the ensuing week over the last 20 years.
  Week 13: SEA, WAS, CLE
• Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 134-105-4 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 13: NYJ, WAS, CIN
• Teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 87-58-1 ATS (60%) since 2020.
  Week 13: ARI, WAS, NYJ
• Big home dogs are on a run.
  Home dogs of 7 or more:
• 59-36-1 ATS since 2020.
• 8-4-1 ATS this season.
• 21-9-1 ATS since start of last year.
• Commanders might be in a bad spot as a home dog off extended rest. Home dogs off 8 days rest or more are 6-11 ATS this season and 41-58-2 ATS in the last decade.
• Sam Howell is first in the NFL in passing yards and completions this season, 10th in pass TDs, third in first-down completions – all while taking the most sacks of any QB in the NFL.
• Sam Howell has been sacked 55 times so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. The NFL record for sacks taken in a season is 76, set by David Carr for the Texans in 2002, their first year in the NFL.

Most Times Sacked as QB Through 12 Games
64 — David Carr, 2002
55 — Sam Howell, 2023
55 — David Carr, 2005

Most Turnovers This Season
1. Joshua Dobbs 17
2. Josh Allen 16
3. Sam Howell 15

• Howell is 5-2 ATS in his career on the road. Six of seven games have ended in one-score games.
  Howell is 1-4-1 ATS at home
  Best Washington QB ATS on road last 20 years: 1. Grossman 6-2 ATS, 2. Howell 5-2 ATS, 3. T Hasselbeck 3-0 ATS
• The dog is strong in Ron Rivera. He is 61-44-3 ATS as an underdog and 47-53-2 ATS as a favorite with Washington and Carolina.
  Most profitable coaches ATS as dog last 20 years: Mike Tomlin, Sean Payton, John Harbaugh, Rivera.
• Rivera has had issues covering the 1H spread. Washington is 4-8 1H ATS this season and 29-44-2 1H ATS since 2019 – second worst coach 1H ATS in NFL behind Tomlin.
• Rivera likes the rah rah spot. 24-16-2 ATS as dog vs. own division, incl 8-5-2 ATS w. Washington
  His 24-16-2 ATS mark as dog in division is eighth-best of all coaches last 20 years.
• Rivera is 61-44-3 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career, includes a 22-17-2 ATS mark as a home dog.
• Rivera off extended rest: 13-6-1 ATS as dog | 8-14 ATS as favorite
• Under in Commanders home games is 20-10-1 since 2020 – third-best in the NFL behind the Giants (23-6-1) and Rams (22-10)
• In the last four seasons, Rivera-coached games are 36-25-2 to the under.
  In that span, Rivera is the eighth-best coach to under

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Broncos at Texans | Sunday, Dec. 3

1 p.m. ET | CBS

HOU -3 | 47.5

Broncos

• Broncos have now won 5 in a row SU after starting the season 1-5 SU.
  This is the Broncos' first 5-game SU win streak since winning 9 straight between 2015-16, which was through their Super Bowl win vs. Panthers
  Broncos could join the 1970 Bengals, the 2015 Chiefs, the 2018 Colts and Washington in 2020 as the only teams to start 1-5 and make the postseason
• Broncos are 1-10 against the third quarter spread this season and 8-20 3Q ATS last two seasons.
• Broncos defense is seventh in EPA/play since Week 6. In Weeks 1-5, they were 32nd, last in the NFL.
• Broncos defense allowed a completion percentage of 73.6% through 8 games this season, that was tied for the third-highest completion percentage through 8 games in the Super Bowl era.
  Since that point, Broncos have allowed a comp% of 55%, lowest mark in the NFL.
• Wilson is 16-24 SU over the last three seasons, He was 107-52-1 SU in his first 9 seasons in the NFL.
  Wilson is 7-12 SU in his last 19 starts and 8-15 SU in his last 23 starts for the Broncos.
• Wilson with Seahawks vs. Broncos
  DEN: 10-16 SU, 10-15-1 ATS
  SU mark is 11th-worst in NFL, ATS is seventh-worst
  SEA: 113-60-1 SU, 90-77-7 ATS
• Wilson’s 10-16 SU mark has lost bettors $476 with Broncos, making him the second-least profitable QB on ML for Broncos last 20 years (Kyle Orton, -$628)
• Payton, Broncos are 4-6-1 ATS this season. Payton’s worst season since finishing 6-10 ATS in 2007 and 2014, and 7-10 in 2010
  Payton has gone 7 straight years with his team above .500 ATS (2015-21)
  In 16 seasons, his teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total
• Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1. Belichick, 2. McCarthy, 3. Payton
  Payton fell behind Mike Zimmer after the loss to the Jets earlier this year. Bounced back in front after the 5-game win streak.
• Over .500 SU teams with a negative average SU point differential in November or later are 145-174-13 ATS (45.5%) last 20 years.
  Week 13: SEA, PIT, DEN

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Texans

• Texans can go over their preseason win total of 6.5 this week. They would be the first team to go over their win total this season (Colts can go over this week as well).
  This would be their first win total over since 2019
  Since 2002, there have been 33 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 11-19-2 (36.7%) toward their win-total over (with Texans now pending). Over the past 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 4-12-2 (25%) (with Texans pending).
• Texans end a 3-game homestand this week before they head on the road.
  Teams to play bback-to-back home games, then play home again before heading to the road, 34-13 SU, 26-21 ATS since 2019.
• CJ Stroud currently leads the NFL in passing yards per game at 296.9
  Rookies to lead the NFL in passing yards per game in NFL History (minimum 75% of team games played): Davey O’Brien (120.4 in 1939) and Sammy Baugh (102.5 in 1937).
• The only rookie to win NFL MVP was Jim Brown in 1957. Stroud is down to 18-1. He was 200-1 entering Week 9.
• Stroud is 6-5 SU this season, his first year in the league. QBs out of Ohio State are a combined now 50-99 SU in the NFL (10 total QBs). The most wins SU in a single season by any of those QBs is now 6, set by Stroud over the 5 by Kent Graham, done twice.
  Only one other OSU QB is over .500 SU for his NFL career. Craig Krenzel, at 3-2 SU.
• Stroud is the first NFL quarterback from Ohio State to eclipse 3,000 passing yards in a season. The previous high was Mike Tomczak with 2,767 yards (16 games) in 1996.
• Tough spot for Texans. Teams who are listed as a favorite after winning just 4 games or less the season prior are just 212-255-14 ATS last 20 years, including 37-50-2 ATS since 2019.
• Teams to open as underdogs and close as a favorite have historically struggled to cover that number. They are 52-87 ATS since 2019 and 22-40 ATS last two seasons.
  Week 13: HOU, SF, IND, JAC
• Most pass yards through teams first 11 games, QBs in first season:
  3,266 – CJ Stroud, 2023
  3,205 – Andrew Luck, 2012
  3,093 – Cam Newton, 2011
  Of the 34 QBs with 2,000+ pass yds thru 11 games on that list, Stroud has second-most pass TD (Justin Herbert), fourth-highest passer rating and second-highest Y/A
• Texans are up to 6 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 6-5 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Stroud has made eleven starts in his NFL career. He’s 5-2 ATS as an underdog and 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 7-4 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 6-1 ATS as a dog, 1-3 ATS as a favorite
• Stroud in rhythm. Texans don’t play in primetime this season – 16 of 17 games all starting at 1pm EST, including remainder of games prior to Week 18.
• Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from you are 31-34-2 ATS this season – 70-94-3 ATS since start of last year and 127-158-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 13: DAL, HOU, LAR, SF, MIA, IND, TB, LAC, JAC

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Panthers at Buccaneers | Sunday, Dec. 3

4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

TB -3 | 36.5

Panthers

• Panthers went under their win total for the season last week. After going over last year, Carolina has still not eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.
  Since 2002, there have been 33 instances of a team drafting a quarterback in the top 10 who then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie, and those teams combined to go 11-19-2 (36.7%) toward their win-total over (with Texans now pending). Over the past 10 years, they’ve been even worse, going just 4-12-2 (25%) (with Texans pending).
• Panthers are 1 of 2 teams (Cardinals) to be listed as underdogs in all of their games so far this season.
• Panthers have struggled with the Bucs lately going 1-5 ATS in their last six and 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
  Panthers haven’t won or covered in TB since 2017 – four straight SU/ATS losses
• Panthers are 8-3 against first quarter spread this season, including 4-2 1Q ATS on the road. Panthers are 17-6 1Q ATS the past three seasons.
• Bryce Young is 1-9 SU so far this season. Since 2000, No. 1 overall QB picks are 63-128-2 SU in their first season.
• 36 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-19 straight up (SU) and 20-16 against the spread (ATS).
  A 55.6% ATS win rate might not look great, but those teams had an 93-244-3 SU record (27.6%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 125-209-5 ATS (37.4%) record prior to the coaching change.
• Bet dogs in low total games. NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 173-119-6 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 36-25-2 ATS this season.
  Week 13: CLE, ARI, CAR, NYJ, NE, CIN
• Teams with a negative SU point differential, who are over .500 ATS later in the season, 149-123-6 ATS since 2015
  Week 13: CAR, ARI
• Panthers have really struggled on the road recently.
  Panthers are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS on the road this season, failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG and losing by 12.1 PPG.
  Worst SU this season: TEN, ARI, CAR 0-6 ATS
  Worst ATS this season: TEN 1-5 ATS, NYG 2-5 ATS, CAR 1-5 ATS
  Panthers are 8-15 ATS last 3 seasons, worst mark in the NFL

Highest Team O/U – Draft QB First Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
1992 Giants/Dave Brown – 9 (Supplemental Draft) (6-10 SU)
2023 Panthers/Bryce Young – 7.5 (1-9 SU)
2016 Rams/Jared Goff – 7.5 (4-12 SU)

Ready to get in on the Panthers betting action in North Carolina? You’ll soon be able to join in on NC sports betting, as the state is expected to come online in 2024.

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Buccaneers

• Todd Bowles can’t stop the bleeding. After a loss, he’s 19-34 SU in his next game, ranked 140th of 147 coaches last 20 years. He is 21-30-2 ATS in that spot, including 4-10-1 ATS with the Bucs.
• Baker Mayfield and the Bucs had covered the spread in 4 straight prior to loss to Colts – Mayfield's longest ATS winning streak of his career.
• Mayfield is 23-21 ATS as an underdog and 13-24-1 ATS as a favorite
• Mayfield has been an under machine since start of last year, 15-6 in that span, including 12-4 in his last 16 starts.
• Mayfield is 3-10 ATS as a favorite in his career vs. division opponents. He’s lost 8 consecutive starts ATS in this spot dating back to 2019.
• Mayfield is 36-45-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,088 (273rd of 283 QBs in the last 20 years).
• Mayfield is 14-23-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home – He’s ranked 115th of 118 QBs since he entered the league.

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49ers at Eagles | Sunday, Dec. 3

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

SF -3 | 48

49ers

• 1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Purdy is 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS at home, just 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS on road.
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 20-4 SU, 16-8 ATS. In those 24 games, McCaffrey has 29 total TDs.
• Most-profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years: Jimmy Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 12-7 ATS
• 49ers are 31-20 ATS last three seasons – fourth-most profitable team in NFL (DET, DAL, CIN, SF)
• 49ers after scoring 30 points or more:
  Under Kyle Shanahan, 25-15 SU, 21-19 ATS
  Since start of 2022: 13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS
• Under Shanahan, the 49ers are 0-37 when trailing by 8 or more points in the fourth quarter.
• Shanahan is 1-31 when trailing by 3+ points entering the fourth quarter.
• Teams to open as underdogs and close as a favorite have historically struggled to cover that number. They are 52-87 ATS since 2019 and 22-40 ATS last two seasons.
  Week 13: HOU, SF, IND, JAC
• Really good teams who are listed as underdogs late in the season have struggled. Teams with a 70%+ win percentage in December or later, who are listed as dogs are 48-69-3 ATS in the regular season.
• West Coast teams traveling east has been a good omen lately.
  = PST teams have had success playing in EST recently, going 49-33-3 ATS since 2019.
  = PST and MST teams have had success playing on the road in EST lately, they are 70-43-3 ATS since 2019 – over .500 ATS in all five seasons.
• Potential winds for SF/PHI game
  Games with 10+ mph winds are 17-5-1 to the under this year, going under the total by 5.3 PPG.
  Games with 10+ mph winds are 109-55-1 to the under in last 3 seasons and 190-126-1 since 2018. Over the last 20 years, these unders hit at a 57.1% rate.

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Eagles

• Clinching scenarios. Eagles go to playoffs with:
  1 Win and LAR loss OR
  2 Win and DET loss and GB loss
• Eagles were -400 to make playoffs in preseason, third-lowest odds (KC, SF)
• Jalen Hurts is the favorite to win MVP. He is the fifth different QB to be listed as the favorite to win the MVP award already this season.
  Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Hurts
• Eagles are 8-2-1 ATS this season – best mark in the NFL
  Best ATS Seasons, Teams to Make Super Bowl Last 20 Years
  22 CIN 12-4 ATS, 04 NE 11-3-2 ATS, 2008 NYG 12-4 ATS, 17 NE 11-5 ATS, 13 SF 11-5 ATS, 11 GB 11-5 ATS
• Eagles and Bills went to OT last week. Teams coming off OT are 125-157 SU, 130-150-2 ATS last decade, with the under 148-124-10 in those games.
  Teams coming off OT, where opponent ran 90+ plays is 6-12 SU since 2000.
• When the Eagles are trailing, they can get back in the game quick. They are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when trailing by 10 points or more at any point, including 4-0 SU this season.
  All other teams are 68-310-2 SU (18%) in that spot last two seasons entering Week 13
• The Eagles schedule entering Week 9 has been brutal … and they are 3-0 in those games.
  vs. DAL (W), at KC (W), vs. BUF (W), vs. SF, at DAL, at SEA
• Eagles are facing the 49ers who are coming off extended rest from Thanksgiving.
  Hurts has played four career games where his opponent is on extended rest during the season. He is 3-1 SU, his only loss in Super Bowl vs. Chiefs
• Impact of Lane Johnson.
  Without him: 14-23 SU
  With him: 94-52-1 SU
• Hurts is 19-10 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, second-best mark of any QB in the NFL behind Jared Goff. Hurts has lost 4 straight 1H ATS entering Week 13.
• Eagles are 14-5 1H ML in last 19. Hurts is 27-19-3 1H ML in his career.
  Since start of last season, Eagles are 22-8-1 1H ML – second most 1H ML wins in NFL behind the Ravens (23)
• Hurts has excelled at home, and has been less than fantastic on the road.
  Home: 17-6-1 ATS (first of 96 QBs since 2020)
  Road/Neutral: 10-14-1 ATS (91st of 96 QBs since 2020)
  All other PHI QBs in the last 20 years are 71-82-1 ATS at home.
• The Eagles are 24-2 SU when Hurts plays the last two regular seasons
• Hurts doesn’t love facing good offenses. Eagles are 10-10 SU vs. team scoring 24 PPG or more on the year and 22-4 SU under that mark.
• Eagles have 32 sacks through 10 games this season (T-11th) and they had 70 sacks last season – third-most regular season all-time (72 ‘84 CHI, 71 ‘89 MIN).
• At home as a favorite, Hurts is 17-1 SU. His only loss was to Taylor Heinicke.
  Hurts is 1-5 SU as a home dog in his career.
• Hurts is 13-3 SU at home vs. teams above .500 SU on the season – he’s won 12 consecutive starts in this spot.
• ​​Hurts has been dominant at home as the Eagles QB1
  Full Game: 18-6 SU, 17-6-1 ATS
  1H: 14-8-2 SU, 15-9 ATS
• Eagles defense allowed 34 points last week vs. Bills.
  Eagles are 8-3 SU under Hurts after allowing 30 points or more in their last game – they’ve won 7 in a row SU.
• In his career, Hurts is 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS as an underdog and he’s 2-6 SU as a dog in his last 8 starts.
  Hurts hasn’t been an underdog in the regular season since being +1, November 21st, 2021 at home against the Chargers
• Good third-down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third-down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 320-252-19 ATS (55.9%) last 20 years.
  Week 13: DAL, PHI, KC

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Browns at Rams | Sunday, Dec. 3

4:25 p.m. ET | FOX

LAR -4 | 40

Browns

• With Deshaun Watson now gone for the season with shoulder surgery, another week of Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
  Browns will start a backup QB for the 56th time in the last decade this week. They are 19-37 SU, 26-29-1 ATS in those games.
  Browns have actually done a good job in these games lately going 4-6 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games with a backup.
  Under Kevin Stefanski, Browns are 8-11 SU, 10-8-1 ATS with a backup QB.
• He was knocked out of the game in the second half and PJ Walker took over, Browns lost 29-12. Thompson-Robinson is now 1-2 SU/ATS.
• Bet dogs in low total games. NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 173-119-6 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 36-25-2 ATS this season.
  Week 13: NE, ARI, NYJ, CAR, CLE, CIN
• Stefanski with Browns
  Favorite: 23-10 SU, 13-20 ATS
  Dog: 10-19 SU, 16-12-1 ATS
• Browns are 13-12-1 ATS after a loss under Stefanski.
  Browns are 12-20 SU, 13-19 ATS after a SU win under Stefanski
  Browns are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a SU win.
• Browns are 12-11 SU, 8-15 ATS vs. AFC North under Stefanski. Of 146 head coaches last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is 140th.
  Stefanski is 21-17-1 ATS against non-AFC North teams.
• The Browns pass defense has been unreal.
  second-fewest pass yards allowed thru 11 games since 1990 behind just the 2019 49ers.
• Stefanksi is 7-1 SU the game after playing the Steelers or Ravens on the road as coach of the Browns.
• Teams who fail to score a lot of points in consecutive games, who average a decent amount of points on the year usually score/cover the following week. Teams to average 20 or more points on the season and score 14 points or less in consecutive games are 69-43-3 ATS (62%) last 20 years.
• Good teams who score fewer than 14 points are good bets the following week. Teams who are over .500 SU and off scoring fewer than 14 points are 103-77-6 ATS last 10 years.
  Week 13: SEA, CLE
• Teams who lose by 17 or more playing a team that won by 17 or more the previous week are 110-74-4 ATS (59.8%) the ensuing week over the last 20 years.
  Week 13: SEA, WAS, CLE
• Bet dogs in low total games. NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 173-119-6 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 36-25-2 ATS this season.
  Week 13: CLE, ARI, CAR, NYJ, NE, CIN

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Rams

• Rams scored 37 points last week.
  Rams after scoring 30 points under McVay:
  31-13 SU, 20-22-2 ATS
  Since 2020: 10-7 SU, 6-11 ATS
• Matthew Stafford is 6-12-1 against the second-half spread since the start of last season – fifth-worst mark in the NFL. Last 5 years, he is 23-39-2 2H ATS, the third-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert.
• Stafford can’t hold a lead.
  He’s 32-56-2 2H ATS after leading at half, including 8-19-1 2H ATS since 2019
  He’s 48-47-6 2H ATS when trailing HT.
• Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018 – he was 2-6-1 ATS last year, worst season since 2013.
  5-4-1 ATS this season
  Rams, Stafford are 5-4-1 ATS this season. 0-1 ATS without Stafford
• Stafford can’t beat good teams. He’s 32-66 SU and 36-60-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU – least profitable QB SU and ATS in this spot last 20 years.
  He is 9-9 SU and 6-12 ATS with Rams in this spot.
  When Stafford faces a team .500 SU or worse he is 58-37 SU and 48-43-4 ATS.
• Stafford is 17-21-2 ATS with Rams – second-least profitable QB for franchise last 20 years (Bulger)
• Beware of bad teams on winning streaks. Teams who are .500 SU or worse, who are on a win streak of 2 games or more are 200-225-11 ATS (47%) last 20 years.
  Week 13: LAR
• Sean McVay’s teams tend to perform better early in the season vs. late.
  September/October: 36-17 SU
  November on: 36-30 SU
• McVay is 26-17-1 ATS vs. NFC West and 34-38-3 ATS vs. all other divisions
  ARI: 12-2-1 ATS | SEA: 10-5 ATS (22-7-1 ATS combined)
  SF: 4-10 ATS
• This line opened Rams -1 and now lists them -3 and higher vs. Browns..
  McVay is one of a few coaches who usually win games when the line moves toward them (ex. -5 to -7).
  McVay is 45-19 SU and 34-27-3 ATS when the line moves towards his teams, including 21-7 SU at home.
• When Stafford faces a “good” team at home (above .500 SU), he’s 19-34 ATS, including 8-18 ATS since 2016 and 3-8 ATS with the Rams.

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Chiefs at Packers | Sunday, Dec. 3

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC

KC -6 | 43

Chiefs

• 1 of 2 teams this season still favored in every game: KC, SF
• Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
  Second half unders are 11-0 in KC games this year
  Fourth-quarter unders are 11-0 in KC games this year
• Mahomes has played in 39 night games in his career, four Saturday games and a game in Germany in the morning – a total of 44 “primetime” games. He is 34-10 SU, 26-17-1 ATS in those games.
  Mahomes has played 39 total night games in his NFL career. The Chiefs are 28-11 SU. 21-17-1 ATS. Mahomes is 15-2 SU in his last 17 night games – but just 2-2 SU this season.
  In road/neutral games at night, Mahomes is 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS.
  Mahomes’ 11-6-1 ATS mark on road/neutral at night is 5th-best over last 20 years behind Peyton Manning, Wentz, Luck, Geno Smith.
• Mahomes is 22-5 SU, 14-12-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career. He’s 16-1 SU as a favorite of more than 3 points vs. NFC.
• Good third-down teams tend to cover the spread. In November or later, teams with a 45% third-down rate or higher, facing a team who is below that threshold, is 320-252-19 ATS (55.9%) last 20 years.
  Week 13: DAL, PHI, KC
• Tough to play off a party city. Last 5 years, teams on normal rest coming off a road game in Atlanta, Vegas, L.A., Miami, New Orleans or New York are 99-134-7 ATS (42.5%).
  Week 13: KC, NE, NO
• Chiefs are coming off a road game in Vegas. Teams after playing the Raiders on the road since they moved to Las Vegas are just 10-19 ATS since 2020, that is the second-worst mark of any previous road team in the NFL in that span (worst is Atlanta at 8-19-1 ATS).
• Mahomes has had 29 passes dropped so far this season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, 7th-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 94 (48-46-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 26-27-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 30-20-1 ATS
  1p ET: 14-16-1 ATS | After 1p slate: 41-31-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 25 (11-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 79 (45-34-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 28 (20-7-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 76 (36-40-1 ATS)
• Mahomes is 12-6 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side.
• Mahomes career based on rest
  6 days or less: 11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS
  7 days: 43-12 SU, 29-25-1 ATS
  8+ days: 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
• Road/neutral, Mahomes is 40-11 SU, 30-20-1 ATS in his career.
  He’s 29-7 SU as a road/neutral favorite of 3 points or more.
• Mahomes in his career is 21-2 SU on the road/neutral as a favorite of over 5 points.
  His only losses came against the Broncos this season and the Titans in 2019
  As a road/neutral favorite of over a field goal he is 26-6 SU.
• Mahomes is 31-2 SU in November and December in last 33 games. He is 37-6 SU in November/December in his career (49-9 SU in November, December and January).
• Chiefs are 3-8 against the fourth-quarter spread this season and 17-34 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
• Chiefs are -10,000 to win the AFC West right now. Chiefs have won the AFC West 7 consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports. The longest run of division titles belongs to the Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019. Chiefs are currently -1700 to win the AFC West again.

Longest NFL Division Title Streak NFL History
11 – 2009-19 Patriots
7 – 2016-23 Chiefs
7 – 1973-79 Rams

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Packers

• Jordan Love’s 60.5% completion percentage through 11 Packers games is the lowest for any Packers QB minimum 300 pass attempts since Brett Favre in 2006.
  Of 33 qualified QBs in NFL, only Zach Wilson has a worse completion percentage than Love’s.
• Packers have been underdogs of 7 or more just four times since 2019. Packers lost all 3 SU with first win on Thanksgiving over Lions (+8.5) but went 3-1 ATS.
• Packers are 5-2 ATS after playing the Lions under LaFleur and 19-6 ATS the game after playing an NFC North foe – sixth-best mark of any head coach last 20 years
• LaFleur is 48-34 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 18-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 6-5 with Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 30-24 ATS.
• LaFleur in primetime games with Packers is 20-12 SU, 19-13 ATS
• LaFleur is 17-11 ATS in his career at night – over the last 20 years, that’s ninth-best of any head coach (9 of 137).
  He is the third-best coach ATS at night since 2019, behind Frank Reich and Sean McVay.
• Packers used to be dominant at home at night in Lambeau. Between 2009-21, they were 27-6 SU during the regular season. Since 2022, they are 2-3 SU at night at Lambeau.
• Rodgers or not, LaFleur has done well at home, at 26-15 ATS, .500 ATS or better all five seasons in Green Bay.
  LaFleur is 10-7 ATS at home vs. teams averaging 24 PPG or more.
• Fewest games favored in season for Packers
  1 – 2023 (1-0 ATS)
  2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
  3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
  5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
  6 – 1990 (2-4 ATS)
  6 – 2017 (4-2 ATS)
• Love has been streaky as an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 3-5 ATS since.
  Love has closed as a favorite once in his 12 career starts.
• Packers might be in a bad spot as a home dog off extended rest. Home dogs off 8 days rest or more are 6-11 ATS this season and 41-58-2 ATS in the last decade.

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Bengals at Jaguars | Sunday, Dec. 4

8:15pm ET | ESPN

JAC -9.5 | 39

Bengals

• Jake Browning gets the start again for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out for the season.
  QBs in first two starts at night on road: 22-38-1 SU in Super Bowl era and 2-6 SU in the last three seasons.
  QBs in first season on road in night games since 1990: 22-59 SU
• Zac Taylor with and without Joe Burrow
  With: 34-24-1 SU, 36-22-1 ATS
  Without: 4-20 SU, 10-14 ATS
• Bengals are 1-25 straight up in road/neutral night games over the last 25 years. They are currently on a 16-game SU losing streak in this spot — last win in Philly, 2012.
• Bet dogs in low total games. NFL underdogs in games with total below 42 are 173-119-6 ATS (59.2%) since 2018 and 36-25-2 ATS this season.
  Week 13: CLE, ARI, CAR, NYJ, NE, CIN
• Rest tends to help losing streaks. Teams on extended rest (8 days or more) on a 3-game losing streak or more, are 134-105-4 ATS last 20 years.
  Week 13: NYJ, WAS, CIN
• Teams off a bad offensive game (10 points or less) vs. a divisional team are 160-118-5 (58%) against 1H spread since 2011 in their next game.
  Week 13: WAS, CIN
• Entering the season, this Cincinnati season had more expectations on it than most.
  Bengals had a win total of 11.5 in the preseason. Their first double-digit win total since 1989 (ends second-longest drought without double-digit win total in NFL – DET).
• During Burrow’s tenure, Bengals have went to a backup QB in starts with Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen and now Browning. They went 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS, scoring 16.25 PPG. Burrow is 36-22-1 ATS in his career.
  Since he was drafted, Burrow is the second most profitable QB ATS in the NFL behind only Jared Goff

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Jaguars

• Hottest team in the NFL going 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
• Jaguars are 8-3 SU through eleven games this season. The Jaguars sixth season going 8-3 SU or better through 11 games.
  Best Jaguars starts through 10 games:
  10-1, 1999
  8-3, 1997, 1998, 2005, 2007, 2023
• Highest Jaguars spread last 15 years:
  -10.5, 2017 vs. HOU, W 45-7
  -10, 2018 vs. TEN, L 9-6
  -10, 2017 vs. ATL, W 13-7
  -9.5, 2009, vs LAR, W 23-20
  -9, 2009 vs. BUF, W 18-15
  -8.5, 2018 vs. BUF, W 10-3
• As head coach, Doug Pederson is 21-8 SU and 19-10 ATS in night games.
  Pederson is 3-1 SU in night games with Jaguars.
  In the last 20 years, his 21-8 SU mark (+$1,716) is the most profitable ML mark in the NFL of 136 coaches.
  In the last 20 years, his 19-10 ATS mark at night is 5th-best (third with an ATS cover this week).
• This will be Trevor Lawrence’s sixth career night game. He is 4-1 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 6.6 PPG. Lawrence is 5-0 in a 6-point teaser in his night game career.
  Lawrence is 4-0 ATS as an underdog at night and 0-1 ATS as a favorite
• Lawrence is just 8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS as a favorite in his NFL career. Lawrence is 8-1 SU in his last nine starts as a favorite.
• Jaguars home/road splits this season:
  Home: 2-3 SU/ATS
  Away/Neutral: 6-0 SU/ATS
• For the Jaguars under Lawrence, its been a bit tough after divisional games, going 6-8 ATS in his career.
• Jaguars are 9-16 SU, 10-15 ATS off a loss under Lawrence. They are 11-8 SU, 12-7 ATS off of a win.
• Lawrence has been made into a different QB with Doug Pederson
  with Pederson: 18-12 SU/ATS
  with Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer: 3-14 SU, 5-12 ATS
• Lawrence is 23-24 against 1H spread career, but this season has been a turnaround for the QB. He is 9-2 1H ATS this season, tied for second-best in the NFL.
• Lawrence is 18-11-1 against the second-half spread since the start of last season – the second-most profitable 2H ATS QB in the NFL behind Desmond Ridder.
• Lawrence is 28-19 to the under in the last three seasons, the fourth-most profitable QB to the under in the NFL (of 96 QBs).
• Pederson has historically excelled as an underdog and struggled as a favorite.
  Underdog: 32-24 ATS (7-2 ATS last 9 games)
  Favorite: 29-31 ATS
• Pederson ATS in his career: 61-55 ATS
  September-November: 37-40 ATS
  December on: 24-15 ATS
• Bad Lawrence this season:
  Joshua Dobbs has more pass TD, he has the same number of INT in fewer attempts than Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett has a higher average depth per target. Trevor has made 56 “off target” throws this year, only 6 QBs have thrown more in the NFL.
• Jaguars are coming off extended rest to face the Bengals.
  Lawrence has played six career games on extended rest (8+ days): 3-3 SU/ATS, had won and covered 3 in a row dating back to start of last season prior to loss to 49ers
  Including Week 1, Lawrence is 4-5 SU/ATS on extended rest in the pros.
• Pederson has had success on extended rest/prep, too.
  He’s 16-9 SU, 15-10 ATS on extended rest (8+ days) and 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 21-11 SU, 19-13 ATS in his career.
• Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 8-13 ATS vs. teams .500 SU or worse and under .500 ATS in the first two years of his career
  2-2 this season
• Lawrence has struggled vs. bad teams. He is 5-11 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and under .500 ATS in this spot all three years of his career.
• Teams to see line move 3 points or more away from you are 31-34-2 ATS this season – 70-94-3 ATS since start of last year and 127-158-4 ATS since 2020
  Week 13: DAL, HOU, LAR, SF, MIA, IND, TB, LAC, JAC
• Teams to open as underdogs and close as a favorite have historically struggled to cover that number. They are 52-87 ATS since 2019 and 22-40 ATS last two seasons.
  Week 13: HOU, SF, IND, JAC
• Expect a low scoring game? When both teams are on extended rest, the under is 104-47-1 (67.8%) since 2018, including 28-5 so far this season.

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Week 13 Public Sides
Lions (-4.5) at NO					74% of bets
Jaguars (-9.5) vs. CIN					74% of bets

Biggest NFL Week 13 Line Moves
Jaguars (+1 to -9.5) vs. CIN
Texans (+4 to -3) vs. DEN

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 13
49ers at Eagles (+3)					150k bets
Dolphins at Commanders (+9)					140k bets

Biggest NFL Week 13 Public Totals
ATL-NYJ (O/U: 33.5)					88% of bets to under
SF-PHI (O/U: 48)					77% of bets to over

System: With a total of 45 or higher, after both teams go over the total the previous week, look to bet contrarian and take the under.

Matches: DAL/SEA, PHI/SF, WAS/MIA

$$$: After Both Over, Go Under, Higher Total

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

betting on the Under

the home team's previous game OU margin is between 0.5 and 100

the visitor's previous game OU margin is between 0.5 and 100

the closing total is between 45 and 100

$1,982

WON

99-72-3

RECORD

58%

WIN%

View System

System: In late season divisional games in the early window, unders have been the way to go.

Matches: IND/TEN

$$$: Late Season Div Unders, 1p ET, Dec early window

the game is played during the Regular season

betting on the Under

the game was played in December or February or January

the game is a Division game

the game started between 13:00 and 13:59 ET

$4,160

WON

220-167-9

RECORD

57%

WIN%

View System

System: When both teams are on extended rest, bet the under.

Matches: WAS/MIA, JAC/CIN

$$$: Bet Under Recently Both Teams Long Rest

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 season

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

betting on the Under

the home team has had between 8 and 100 days off

the Visitor team has had between 8 and 100 days off

$4,827

WON

104-47-1

RECORD

69%

WIN%

View System

Below is the 2023 Anytime TD sheet — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far and their total units for the entire season. Notes below from Gilles Gallant.

• Cowboys KaVontae Turpin keeps adding to his lead of Anytime TD profits. Now at +34U.
• Welcome to Top 10, CIN TE Drew Sample!
• Top 3 Biggest ATD Hits of W12: Drew Sample +1900 Harrison Bryant +1300 Olamide Zacchaeus +1200

Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.

• Bengals TE Drew Sample with the big +7000 hit!
• LV WR Jakobi Meyers now at +57.5U in profit after his 5TH FIRST TD OF 2023.

League Trends ⤵️

Early, Late Unders

1H Night

• First-half unders on Monday Night Football are now 10-3-1 this season and 31-18-1 last three years. Since 2015, they are hitting at a 63% rate.
• NFL first-half unders are now 90-67-3 in night games since 2021, including 25-19-1 on TNF and 31-18-1 on MNF in that span.

Chalk Toss

Favorites Are Hot

Favorites have been on a crazy run.

Favorites for season: 121-59 SU, 93-82-5 ATS
Favorites 55-19 SU since Week 8 (40-32-2 ATS)
Favorites went 12-4 SU/ATS in Week 12. 12+ favorites covering have only happened five times since 1990 — Wk 12 2017 is most recent previously to last week.

Tight Division

Look Elsewhere

We know unders have been on a historic run, but most of the damage has been OUTSIDE divisional games.

• Unders have excelled this season in non-divisional games
  30-28 in divisional games
  76-45-1 in non-divisional games

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Denver Broncos: 66-1 (DEN was 125-1 to win SB last week)

Biggest Super Bowl Faller

Buffalo Bills: 35-1 (BUF was 22-1 to win SB last week)

Win Total Tracker ⤵️

NFL Win Total Grid and Progress

Trending Up 📈
Texans					6-5	Win Total: 6.5
Colts					6-5	Win Total: 6.5
Eagles					10-1	Win Total: 11.5
Ravens					9-3	Win Total: 10.5
Cowboys					8-3	Win Total: 9.5
Lions					8-3	Win Total: 9.5
Jaguars					8-3	Win Total: 9.5
Dolphins					8-3	Win Total: 9.5
Steelers					7-4	Win Total: 8.5
Raiders					5-7	Win Total: 6.5
Rams					5-6	Win Total: 6.5
49ers					8-3	Win Total: 10.5
Browns					7-4	Win Total: 9.5
Vikings					6-6	Win Total: 8.5
Broncos					6-5	Win Total: 8.5
Seahawks					6-5	Win Total: 8.5

Trending Down 📉
Chiefs					8-3	Win Total: 11.5
Packers					5-6	Win Total: 7.5
Commanders					4-8	Win Total: 6.5
Buccaneers					4-7	Win Total: 6.5
Falcons					5-6	Win Total: 8.5
Bills					6-6	Win Total: 10.5
Bears					4-8	Win Total: 7.5
Giants					4-8	Win Total: 7.5
Titans					4-7	Win Total: 7.5
Saints					5-6	Win Total: 9.5
Cardinals					2-10	Win Total: 4.5
Chargers					4-7	Win Total: 9.5
Jets					4-7	Win Total: 9.5
Patriots					2-9	Win Total: 7.5
Bengals ❌					5-6	Win Total: 11.5
Panthers ❌					1-10	Win Total: 7.5

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Award Betting Progress ⤵️

NFL Awards Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Odds	3rd In Odds
NFL MVP	Jalen Hurts (+140)	Patrick Mahomes (+350)	Lamar Jackson (+500)
Offensive POY	Tyreek Hill (-105)	Christian McCaffrey (+110)	AJ Brown (+1400)
Defensive POY	Myles Garrett (+150)	Micah Parsons (+175)	T.J. Watt (+250)
Offensive ROY	CJ Stroud (OTB)	N/A	N/A
Defensive ROY	Jalen Carter (-250)	Devon Witherspoon (+200)	Will Anderson (+1600)
Comeback POY	Damar Hamlin (-150)	Tua Tagovailoa (+300)	Josh Dobbs (+450)
Coach Of The Year	Dan Campbell (+160)	DeMeco Ryans (+350)	Mike McDaniel (+500)
Updated as of Nov. 29th

Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:

• Offensive ROY is off the Board. CJ Stroud is your champ according to the books.
• Jalen Carter (DROY), Tyreek Hill (OPOY) and Damar Hamlin (CPOY) are all odds-on favorites for their awards.

Trivia Instructions

For this week's trivia question, we are just looking for one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: In the last 20 years, name the most-profitable NFL quarterback against the spread in the month of December.

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